I found this write-up in the FREE PICKS section of the Dual Threat Sports website. Hopefully it does as well as last night's pick. Good luck.
Illinois - Fresno State OVER 57.5
The Illini have averaged 46.8 points per game over the last five. They've also put up 550-plus total yards in two of their last three games. Fresno State is allowing 31 ppg to teams that avg 28.73 ppg and against the 5 best offenses the Bulldogs have faced this season they are allowing 40.80 ppg vs teams that avg 36.28 ppg (- +4.52). Offensively the Bulldogs have been struggling the past few games, but in that span they also played the # 2 ranked defense on the road (Boise State). Overall Fresno State is avg nearly 30 ppg to teams that allow more or less 30 ppg. Defensively Illinois is allowing 26.30 ppg to teams that avg 28.86 ppg. However in their first 5 games the Illini were allowing 21.60 to teams that avg 33.04 ppg (-11.44), but in the last 5 games they are allowing 31 ppg to teams that avg 24.69 ppg (+6.31). We have two of the better RB’s in the country going at it tonight, Illinois Junior RB Mikel Leshoure (1,371 yards, 13 TDs) and if healthy Fresno State RB Robbie Rouse (broken hand) is 13th in the nation with 109.7 rushing yards per game. Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase hasn’t put up impressive passing numbers this season, but his ability to run zone options and conventional options keeps defenses honest. He owns three 100-yard rushing efforts and hit Northwestern for 97 yards. He's 49th nationally in passer efficiency, which is much higher than he was at midseason. He has thrown just one interception in the last five games. Fresno State QB Ryan Colburn has an 18:9 TD: int ratio and ranks 4th in the WAC in pass efficiency.
Illinois - Fresno State OVER 57.5
The Illini have averaged 46.8 points per game over the last five. They've also put up 550-plus total yards in two of their last three games. Fresno State is allowing 31 ppg to teams that avg 28.73 ppg and against the 5 best offenses the Bulldogs have faced this season they are allowing 40.80 ppg vs teams that avg 36.28 ppg (- +4.52). Offensively the Bulldogs have been struggling the past few games, but in that span they also played the # 2 ranked defense on the road (Boise State). Overall Fresno State is avg nearly 30 ppg to teams that allow more or less 30 ppg. Defensively Illinois is allowing 26.30 ppg to teams that avg 28.86 ppg. However in their first 5 games the Illini were allowing 21.60 to teams that avg 33.04 ppg (-11.44), but in the last 5 games they are allowing 31 ppg to teams that avg 24.69 ppg (+6.31). We have two of the better RB’s in the country going at it tonight, Illinois Junior RB Mikel Leshoure (1,371 yards, 13 TDs) and if healthy Fresno State RB Robbie Rouse (broken hand) is 13th in the nation with 109.7 rushing yards per game. Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase hasn’t put up impressive passing numbers this season, but his ability to run zone options and conventional options keeps defenses honest. He owns three 100-yard rushing efforts and hit Northwestern for 97 yards. He's 49th nationally in passer efficiency, which is much higher than he was at midseason. He has thrown just one interception in the last five games. Fresno State QB Ryan Colburn has an 18:9 TD: int ratio and ranks 4th in the WAC in pass efficiency.
