Miami v Bowling

[kiln]

Home teams on weekday prime time usually covers.

What is your evidence for this? There are data, you know. We don't have to make stuff up. Rather than guess, or state your ill informed opinion, why don't you provide evidence?

And if they were that much garbage the spread would be more than 3.

This is just silly.


About the game, though, I think Miami Ohio wins by double digits. Bowling Green run defense is just horrible and even though Miami running game ain't exactly Auburn, it'll be good enough. BG is almost last in PPG allowed while Miami can play a little defense. There's going to be about forty six people in the stands. Miami all night, IMHO.

[homerbush]

first idea was to make Miami but I think it is a no bet for me. Their offense sucks too bad for me to put faith in. I will watch the total maybe an under or tt under here for me.

[LINE-crush-ER]

Miami ranks tied for eighth in the nation in red zone defense (68%) and 19th in time of possession (31:45)…Miami QB Zac Dysert ranks 16th in the country in completions per game (22.56)…WR Armand Robinson ranks 12th in the nation in receptions per game (6.67). The Falcons play two of the final three at home (vs. Miami, at Toledo, vs. Western Michigan)…Falcon QB Matt Schilz ranks 12th in the nation in completions per game (23.39)…WR Kamar Jorden ranks third in the country in receptions per game (8.44), 13th in total receiving yards (825) and 14th in receiving yards per game

[Doc_Holladay]

I see most of the bets going on Miami and the line moves from -3 to -2.5. That tells me that the big $$ are on Bowling Green. A buddy of mine said "Guys smarter than me are moving the line.." I am a square, so I will tail the $$ bets and follow the sharps. If 24% of the bets move the line in their favor, they must be putting up some cash. Money goes to money...

[LINE-crush-ER]

don't let Bowling Green's scores of 25+ points in certain games fool you. Most have come late in the second half (like games against Ohio, Temple, etc.) when the scrubs were put into play and the game was out of reach

[Barnes01]

Big money has been wrong more than a few times lately, I will go with the research. Line is at a stand still and not moving, will see what it does more towards game time when you really get an idea of what's going on.

[LINE-crush-ER]

Until last week’s effort against Central Michigan, Bowling Green had been terrible on defense, allowing at least 28 points in every game. The Falcons have been destroyed on the ground, surrendering over 200 yards per contest. They finally stopped the bleeding against the Chippewas, holding Central Michigan to 99 yards on 34 carries. Bowling Green also racked up six sacks after notching just seven through its first eight games.
Like Miami, the Falcons must rely on a solid passing game to counter an awful ground attack. Redshirt freshman Matt Schilz has done a solid job under center, leading the team to 233 yards per game through the air. He was shaky against Central Michigan, though, throwing for just 200 yards and getting picked off twice.
Both teams are susceptible to the run, though neither team is good enough to take advantage. That means the game will come down to the passing attack. Give the nod to Miami’s Dysert, who had a little more experience than Schilz. Don’t expect this game to be pretty, but the RedHawks should emerge with a one-touchdown victory.

[illriseupxnhx]

Until last week’s effort against Central Michigan, Bowling Green had been terrible on defense, allowing at least 28 points in every game. The Falcons have been destroyed on the ground, surrendering over 200 yards per contest. They finally stopped the bleeding against the Chippewas, holding Central Michigan to 99 yards on 34 carries. Bowling Green also racked up six sacks after notching just seven through its first eight games.
Like Miami, the Falcons must rely on a solid passing game to counter an awful ground attack. Redshirt freshman Matt Schilz has done a solid job under center, leading the team to 233 yards per game through the air. He was shaky against Central Michigan, though, throwing for just 200 yards and getting picked off twice.
Both teams are susceptible to the run, though neither team is good enough to take advantage. That means the game will come down to the passing attack. Give the nod to Miami’s Dysert, who had a little more experience than Schilz. Don’t expect this game to be pretty, but the RedHawks should emerge with a one-touchdown victory.

100% in agreeance here, Dyserts figures dont do him justice, one of the better young qb's. His play should be the difference.

[2Bdown]

im staying away from this, BG seems to be the play though

[ManBearPig]

I see most of the bets going on Miami and the line moves from -3 to -2.5. That tells me that the big $$ are on Bowling Green. A buddy of mine said "Guys smarter than me are moving the line.." I am a square, so I will tail the $$ bets and follow the sharps. If 24% of the bets move the line in their favor, they must be putting up some cash. Money goes to money...

Bingo...This is all I'm saying. It's not about being right or wrong it's about being on the right side and since I'm not a line mover I want to be on theirs or the books side. I don't even have to look at the numbers and trends much, but it seems the public perception here is Miami is a far superior team to BG and they are getting a gift at -3. Does anyone really think that they are so stupid as to place such an obvious line that is a loser. The books are more than happy to let them pound that number all day long. Based on the PR I have I have BG favored by 5 or 6 in this one... at me all you...(that's what I did when I saw a 9 point swing ) but I can't ignore it. I'll probably sit this one out but watch from sidelines though I'm liking a couple NBA games better but it is food for thought.

Remember it's not the number of bets on each team that counts...it's the amount of money, this is what moves lines. To me a move to 3.5 would favor Miami while a move to 2.5 would favor BG. Thus based on line movement alone BG seems to be the play but that doesn't guarantee a win even if it is the right side. BG could get housed here but I would still make the same play every time.

[Husker36]

The "smart money" was also on Army last week and Dallas.

I dont see how Bowling Green wins tonight. Miami-Ohio is the better team, playing for the conference championship, with revenge from last year on their minds.

It's Miami-Ohio for me

[Poppa Catfish]

I want to pull the trigger on Miami, but I look at BG"s record, and they destroyed Marshall and played Temple hard losing only by one.

Is BG being undervalued or are they just lucky in their wins?

Miami is clearly the better team but can BG come off as the spoiler?

This is exactly why its hard for me to buy that this is a "fishy line." It isn't like Miami is some world beater, with wins over Buffalo et al; and it they certainly are not blowing teams out on the road (or at home for that matter). What do you these "fishy line" guys want to do with the line? Miami's biggest margin of victory on the road was 12 against Buffalo. Do they want to see Miami Oh -7, -8, -10? In that case I bet just about everybody would be on BG given that line.

These are mediocre teams, with the game probably revolving a blown assignment a missed fg or some seemingly small detail. Seems like a sure fire death for the books if they give a td or more handicap to one mediocre road team over a mediocre home team.

[BrownTown]

That 76% that is on Miami does worry me, but they are simply the better all around team.

Did you get that from Vegas? That is what they want you to think ... hook line and sinker

[cakasmaloy]

Miami is the better team here. Plus this is their most important game in the last 4 years... They have been awful in the recent past (won 1 game last year) and were predicted to finish towards the bottom of the MAC again this year. This is the second year for their new coach and it's starting to click. Their 4 losses were to florida, mizzou, cinci, and a tough rival Ohio. They have the opportunity to win the MAC and get to their first bowl in years. BG has NOTHING to play for. The only reason anyone is taking BG is because "the line looks fishy". That's not a very good assessment of the matchup. I'd love to hear some solid justification for taking BG here...Miami is the play.

[jds07v]

I love these mid week games. The past few years it seems I have been pretty decent at these small mac and sun belt games. that being said, I think Miami is the all around stronger team. BGSU has had some close games, but if you followed the games, a lot of these points came in garbage time. I'm not laying down a fortune here, but if I can get what I feel is the better team, to win by less than a field goal, I will take it. I'm not going to talk about their MAC championship hopes, because while I feel that this is a possible motivation, I am not comfortable in assigning a number into my handicapping.

[head_strong]

Miami is the most obvious pick here. For a reason. They are going to obliterate BG.

I'd bet the farm on this one.

BG has nothing to lose. Miami has EVERYTHING to gain. Like tied 5-1 atop the MAC East, where they'd get to matchup Temple in the final game of the season for the potential conference championship (pending Ohio). As far as Miami is concerned, that championship is possibly on the line tonight. You think BG stands a chance? They are 1-2 at home, and that win was against MARSHALL. Kent State isn't as good as Miami and came into BG's house and pounded them 30-6 two or three weeks ago. Miami should be -14 realistically. I can't imagine taking BG.

I'll be throwing back some brews tonight laughing at the BG tails tonight.

To sum it up:
-They are going to obliterate BG...but they average 19 points per game.
-You would bet your farm on a team...that averages 19 points per game.
-Using your Kent St logic, Utah St lost to Oklahoma by 7, San Diego St beat Utah St by 34, so San Diego St would beat Oklahoma by 27...
-Miami should be favored -14 making the final 19-5...since they average 19 points per game.

[Nguyener59]

Ummm did you guys know today was the exact date for the one hundred year anniversary for bowling green.... you think that has any effect for tonight???????????????

[SportNut]

Ummm did you guys know today was the exact date for the one hundred year anniversary for bowling green.... you think that has any effect for tonight???????????????

Interesting...I would take that fact into consideration...

[jds07v]

To sum it up: -They are going to obliterate BG...but they average 19 points per game. -You would bet your farm on a team...that averages 19 points per game. -Using your Kent St logic, Utah St lost to Oklahoma by 7, San Diego St beat Utah St by 34, so San Diego St would beat Oklahoma by 27... -Miami should be favored -14 making the final 19-5...since they average 19 points per game.

So since BGSU averages 23 and change, they will win the game 24-19? come on now. I am pretty sure that Cincinnati, Florida, and Missouri are more talented on defense than BGSU. Those numbers are skewed. If you want to use the transition property so bad, just look at the buffalo game.

In conference, BGSU averages 20 ppg, and giving up 29ppg

Miami avg 23 ppg and giving up 21 ppg.

I don't believe in either of these methods, but I think the conference one is more likely to correspond to the final result.

I know you are being sarcastic, but there are flaws in your making fun of his flaws

[Barnes01]

BrownTown, it's been years since Vegas has taken me hook line and sinker on a sucker bet, but nice try. Good luck

[tailin junkie]

here's the reason, bowling green has played a lot teams with a decent run defense (average of 46th in nation) which accounts for their 120th ranked rush offense. However, they have still managed to score 24 points per game. Miami's rush defense is 44th in the nation so that alone doesnt say they will shut them down. Their opponents average pass D is 76th and Miami's is 66th so should they be able to score?, I think so.
BG's rush defense statistics (110 in the nation) are also inflated due to playing michigan. On average, their opponents rush offense is 63rd and Miami's rush offense is 119th. BG is 63rd against the pass while playing opponents with an average of a 56th passing offense. Miami's passing offense is 32nd which scares me a little. But, Miami will have trouble running and with BG's average pass defense, I think they have a chance to stop them at times so I do not see Miami running away with this.

If you look at the records, common opponents and the fact that Miami has played 3 BCS schools (fla, cincy, mizz), it looks like miami is the easy pick. But since it is a low spread with random line movement, and taking into account the above info and it is the only game to bet (with degenerates seeing an easy win), i am leaning towards bowling green
BG 24 Miami (OH) 20

[QueenzBully]

I'm glad my little thread blew up into an interesting conversation!! I'm taking Miami!!

[c4yrslf12]

To sum it up:
-They are going to obliterate BG...but they average 19 points per game.
-You would bet your farm on a team...that averages 19 points per game.
-Using your Kent St logic, Utah St lost to Oklahoma by 7, San Diego St beat Utah St by 34, so San Diego St would beat Oklahoma by 27...
-Miami should be favored -14 making the final 19-5...since they average 19 points per game.

To sum YOU up:

They average 19 pts a game versus teams not as bad as BG.
I would bet the farm on TONIGHTS game, not statistics, because I know who the better team is.
And your last two comments aren't worth my time.

[Quagmire27]

under bitches

[QueenzBully]

Lol!!!

[bestbet23]

I will take the RedHawks, seems like the play!

[uhuhahah]

Under for me

[orangeman51]

74% on Miami yet the line dropped from -3.5 to -2.5. I'm on Bowling Green +3 (bought the half point) and ml +115.

[M.W.]

Something is off here. Miami is by far the superior team

What's off is your perception of these teams. They're pretty much equal, and I have no idea why anyone thinks Miami is significantly better.

[BetWeather]

I agree the line looks funny at just -3 but Miami, revenge from last year, passes the ball better, plays better defense, will be bowl eligible with a win looks like the right side.

No Sewing machine here...
Will be bowl eligible with a win says it all.

[the shadow]

The books love you rlm guys.

[THE PROFIT]

Brandon Lang is on Bowling Green, nuff said

[shade3599]

Brandon Lang is on Bowling Green, nuff said

Now I will bet my farm and my neighbors farm on Miami. Haha

[duwork]

BG is the play here.

[head_strong]

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