I've got two strong plays for Saturday action. Start with:
Louisville vs Pitt. Most books have Louisville as a 9.5 point dog here...that's just too many to give this team in this spot. For Louisville, Bilal Powell comes into this game as the nation's #4 leading rusher with over 1,000 yards already and nine td's. I know Pitt has the the #4 rush D in the country, but Powell will get his...at least enough to extend some drives and allow the Cards to keep this one close. Louisville is coming off a druming of UCONN last week - 26-0 - which was their second shutout this year...by the way, Louisville has a top 30 D. Charlie Strong has this team playing disciplined and inspired ball, and he'll have them ready for this big conference road game, which if they win gives them a legitimate shot at the BigEast title with WVA - just got beat by UCONN - and South Fla at home remaining. Although it may be tough for Louisville to come out of there a winner, they'll fight hard and keep this one close.
Take Louisville and the +9.5
--Kentucky@Miss. St. State is giving the Wildcats six points in this one...they will cover this at home. MsSt will run all over Ky's undersized and overmatched D, and KY will find it hard to get much on the ground with Derrick Locke most likely out..or less than 100% if he does play, against a team that only gives up around 100 yds per game on the ground...around 300 total yds. Randall Kobb for KY is a hell of a player, and Hartline is a serviceable QB, but the bottom line is that KY is no good on the road. MsSt will wear out KY and the clock. Feel confident in laying the points here.
Take Miss State -6
Louisville vs Pitt. Most books have Louisville as a 9.5 point dog here...that's just too many to give this team in this spot. For Louisville, Bilal Powell comes into this game as the nation's #4 leading rusher with over 1,000 yards already and nine td's. I know Pitt has the the #4 rush D in the country, but Powell will get his...at least enough to extend some drives and allow the Cards to keep this one close. Louisville is coming off a druming of UCONN last week - 26-0 - which was their second shutout this year...by the way, Louisville has a top 30 D. Charlie Strong has this team playing disciplined and inspired ball, and he'll have them ready for this big conference road game, which if they win gives them a legitimate shot at the BigEast title with WVA - just got beat by UCONN - and South Fla at home remaining. Although it may be tough for Louisville to come out of there a winner, they'll fight hard and keep this one close.
Take Louisville and the +9.5
--Kentucky@Miss. St. State is giving the Wildcats six points in this one...they will cover this at home. MsSt will run all over Ky's undersized and overmatched D, and KY will find it hard to get much on the ground with Derrick Locke most likely out..or less than 100% if he does play, against a team that only gives up around 100 yds per game on the ground...around 300 total yds. Randall Kobb for KY is a hell of a player, and Hartline is a serviceable QB, but the bottom line is that KY is no good on the road. MsSt will wear out KY and the clock. Feel confident in laying the points here.
Take Miss State -6
