Cal +3 @ Oregon State

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  • utmoody10
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-19-08
    • 304
    #1
    Cal +3 @ Oregon State
    I for one cannot figure out this Cal team. The disparity of how they play at home vs on the road is simply befuddling. Cal is fresh off of a 50-17 beatdown of Arizona State while Oregon State is coming off a bye and lost a tough one to Washington two weeks ago. Recent trends point to Oregon State being the play, covering 4 of the 5 past years and the fact that Cal has been outscored 110-54 in road games this year.

    On the other hand one would think that the Bears have to show up to play on the road sometime this season. Also Oregon State WR was put down for the year earlier this season with a knee injury.

    Look forward to some insight on this game since I know a lot of you were all over the Bears last week.
    Tags: None
    • dume walker
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-08-10
      • 971
      #2
      There are certain teams I consider schizophrenic, meaning you never know which of their personalities is going to show up. The one that blows opponents out by 40 points or the one that gets stomped by 30. Cal is one of them. And pretty much every team in the ACC. I try to lay off of them altogether.

      BTW, do you think NIU does it again this week against WMU? Interesting to note that after 6 straight ATS wins the line opened at NIU -9.5 and has already dropped to -8.5. Maybe that is because of all the ATS wins. Maybe bettors figure the line is inflated cause of that or they're just due to lose ATS.
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        • HoulihansTX
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 02-12-09
          • 30566
          #3
          It's called home-road dichotomy.

          Cal is the shit @ home, and a shit team on the road.
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300
              #4
              Why is Oregon State only -3 in this spot?

                Comment
                • Nepaa
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-12-08
                  • 119
                  #5
                  Oregon State -3 is the right pick here. Cal sucks on the road.
                    Comment
                    • Uncle Harv
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 09-30-09
                      • 238
                      #6
                      Ive been making money on Cal all year. Mainly because Im a Cal fan/follower and know their tendencies. They are the most unfocused team on the road and OSU owns them regardless. Take the Beavers -3.
                        Comment
                        • Flight
                          Restricted User
                          • 01-28-09
                          • 1979
                          #7
                          I will weigh in here with some numbers
                          California Net YPP: +1.1
                          Oregon St Net YPP: -0.8

                          To get Net YPP, I take Offensive YPP (season long) minus Defensive YPP. It is a quick indicator of a team's overall success on a pure yardage basis.

                          Needless to say I like Cal +3 big time this week.

                          I will chalk up the large variation in road vs home performance to randomness.
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