Northern Illinois -8.5 vs Central Michigan

diggalee · 10-20-10, 09:53 AM

Why would you bet on this game?

utmoody10 · 10-20-10, 10:42 AM

Reasons to bet it:

1. Trends from above, N. Ill 5-0 in the last 5 ATS and C Mich losing straight up as double digit favs twice in 3 weeks
2. N. Ill at home
3. N. Ill has a solid rushing attack (11th in the nation)
4. C. Mich allowed 300+ yards on the ground vs Ball State (and lost that game by 2 TDs, mind you that Ball State is a team that has lost to Liberty and Eastern Michigan)
5. C. Mich QB has thrown 9 Ints in the last 4 games

Thats what I looking at, any games you would recommend? (besides any game but this one apparently)

jester2trife · 10-20-10, 11:32 AM

I actually really like NIU in this one...perhaps the first game that jumped out at me looking over the lines

dume walker · 10-20-10, 02:11 PM

I've been looking at NIU as well. Unfortunately, the line is now back to -9.5. On the cautionary side I'm concerned that NIU has now won 5 in a row ATS. Usually the books adjust to that trend and continue to skew the line against the fave. Also NIU had that big win against Buffalo which you might thinkn would set them up for a letdown game. What I see as a counterbalance against any let down is the fact that NIU lost its last 3 to Central when they were hot with LeFevour at QB and Butch Jones coaching. One would imagine NIU would want to get a little of that back while Central is in vulnerable rebuilding mode.

Another game I'm looking at is San Diego State @ New Mexico. Yes, a lot of people are jumping on the Aztecs' bandwagon. And, yes, they could be in letdown mode after beating Air Force. And, yes, New Mexico has had a bye week. And, yes, 23.5 is a lot of points for a team like SD State to give. But here you have a team that was always considered a "bet against" cream puff. Now they're suddenly being called "good". That's got to really energize them. And winning has got to feel great for them. The other thing I really like is the "coaching crossover" factor. One of the casino book managers mentioned this the other week in Chad Millman's ESPN column on wiseguy betting. How the sharps give a lot of credence to a team whose head coach, OC or DC used to be on the staff of the team they're now facing. You saw this when Sarkissian led Washington to a win a couple weeks ago and last year against USC. We saw it last week when former Gator OC Dan Mullen came into the swamp and beat Florida straight up.

Now you've got Rocky Long who was the former head coach of New Mexico as DC for SD State. He beat SD State 8 times in a row when he was head coach at NM. Then last year SD State beat NM with Rocky Long as SD State DC. So I like that factor a lot. Also like the fact that Missouri has the #2 defense in the country, giving up only 10 points a game on average. Little 'ol SD State came into mighty Big 12 Columbia and put 23 points on still-undefeated Mizzou, the most of any team Mizzou has faced so far. SD was a 14 point dog in that game and lost by just 3. SD State's offense is #16 in the country. NM's defense is #109. SD State's defense is #45. NM's offense is #117. So I don't know if a bye week will help NM all that much.

Love to know what you think about this game as well. And GL to both of us with NIU.

Unchained · 10-20-10, 02:33 PM

This is a great spot. Like the trends and info
GL

MTek · 10-20-10, 03:35 PM

Nice work Dume

utmoody10 · 10-20-10, 03:41 PM

New Mexico is definitely in the conversation as one of the worst teams in football and San Deigo State has a powerful balanced offensive attack. I definitely see no way this game is close, 24 is a tough number though so if I play it at all it will probably be in a teaser scenario to make me a little less nervous on SDSU covering the number.

og4667 · 10-20-10, 06:04 PM

yea central michigan looks like a mess, new coach, new qb vs NIU that has a solid QB in Harnish, a great running back in forgot his name and a solid defense.

NIU is a very good team and should go to a bowl this year, they should cover with ease.

linedrivr · 10-20-10, 06:29 PM

normally, would back the conf dog in a game like this BUT you have a C Michigan team coming in here off a 12 win season in 2009 and now sitting @ 2 - 5 just 7 games into the current season which generally leads to a very non motivated team. The coaching staff will have their hands full at practice this week trying to keep the Chips focused on the upcoming task at hand. Many of the players will have already mailed it in mentally by now knowing they don't have much to play for other than pride for the remainder of the season.

On the other hand, you have a 5 - 2 motivated, focused N Illinois team @ home, playing well, coming off a 45 - 14 thumping of Buffalo and riding a 4 game win streak into this one. Lets throw in the revenge factor from last years loss to C Michigan and you have the makings of a nice win here.

I like N Illinois in this spot.

dngf · 10-20-10, 06:52 PM

I agree with the above, N Illinois undefeated in conference play, their two losses to Big 10 and a Big 12 school they run the ball well and play pretty good defense at home. The Chips do seem to miss their QB from last year. I think NIU is the play.

UnderDog_Philip · 10-20-10, 08:13 PM

Thanks for the info, I liked NIU before seeing this, and now I like it even more.

LT Profits · 10-20-10, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by diggalee

Why would you bet on this game?

Why would you not?

It is easier to find value in games like this than in high profile national TV games that are oftentimes unbettable.

GatorTD · 10-20-10, 09:28 PM

I absolutely loved CMU last year but god they are bad.

RibbedTrojan · 10-20-10, 10:16 PM

Love NIU here to roll. GL.

tblues2005 · 10-20-10, 10:19 PM

I like N. Illinois also here in this spot.

jeepsguy004 · 10-21-10, 11:49 AM

I have to agree I really like N Ill in this spot. This team plays great defense at home. They have allowed only 15 points per game their last 7 home games and only 13 points per game their last 5 home conference games.They average 35 points their last 7 home games and 36 points their last 5 home conference games. This team has lost the last 3 years to Central Mich and they know it is time to take some frustration out on this team who has gotten them 3 times in a row. C Mich is not the same team as they were last few years after losing their stud QB. I think N Ill puts a beating on this C Mich team on their home field to give their fans a victory over a team that has beaten them the past 3 years. Take a look at the beating that N Ill put on Temple and Buffalo on their home field. I think we see the same thing this week.

aman86 · 10-21-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Why would you not?

It is easier to find value in games like this than in high profile national TV games that are oftentimes unbettable.

aman86 · 10-21-10, 05:00 PM

im on niu pretty large btw

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 05:17 PM

Line should be more like N.Ill -7 but as Dume pointed out, I think the books have the same spread pegged, but tacked on a few to try to eliminate them being a winner in 6 straight ATS. Either way, I still like N.I. here, but at -9.5. Won't touch any higher.

dwendling · 10-21-10, 05:36 PM

Take NIU. They have a great run game with a running qb. the defense is sold. their only main weakness is their kicker- the guy missed 3 field goals last week before 10 mins left in the 2nd quarter.

by the way,,, i will be in attendance and will personally see NIU win by at least 20.

utmoody10 · 10-24-10, 11:49 AM

congrats all who played the Huskies