Rice +20 vs. UCF

Michigan · 10-17-10, 06:43 PM

UCF is solid this year but it looks good

fishmonger · 10-17-10, 09:51 PM

looked a little to high to me too.

the12thman · 10-17-10, 10:09 PM

I'm seeing it at 21.5

texhooper · 10-17-10, 11:24 PM

rice in for a letdown. ucf won't have any problems with them. they might cover the number, but you're playing with fire.

good luck to you.

nbarlotta3 · 10-17-10, 11:25 PM

I'd still stick with UCF. They've been great lately

matthewsg · 10-18-10, 09:58 AM

Texhooper is dead on. This is a huge letdown spot for Rice. However, neither Texas, Baylor, SMU, nor Northwestern covered this # against the Owls. Granted all of those games took place in Houston. A bad UTEP team did beat them 20 in their only decent road test. I'd say the line is pretty sharp.

aman86 · 10-18-10, 10:52 AM

houston failed to show up 1h of last game, rice was lucky to hold on

Sean81 · 10-18-10, 01:07 PM

Thanks for the input. I had higher expectations for Rice this year with all the returning starters and they have disappointing for much of the season. I can't help but wonder if the Houston victory is the inflection point in their season and they continue to improve. UCF is by far the most complete team in CUSA so Im going to keep thinking about this one.

dume walker · 10-18-10, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Sean81

Thanks for the input. I had higher expectations for Rice this year with all the returning starters and they have disappointing for much of the season. I can't help but wonder if the Houston victory is the inflection point in their season and they continue to improve. UCF is by far the most complete team in CUSA so Im going to keep thinking about this one.

Couple more things to factor into your thinking...

Rice returned 18 starters from a 2-10 team. UCF returned 15 starters from an 8-5 team.

Homecoming game for UCF.

Rice has been putting up fair amount of points against teams with poor defenses.

UCF has 9th best defense in the nation.

UCF playing with 3 more days rest.

fishmonger · 10-18-10, 07:30 PM

yeah just changed my mind. laying off. so watch it hit

dume walker · 10-22-10, 04:04 AM

In my previous post in this thread I listed some reasons that would favor UCF ATS in this game. Doing some more research tonight, I found some info that made me realize UCF is actually the one that is in danger of a letdown game. (Sorry to disagree with you again, Tex.)

UCF is coming off two big wins in which it won by 21 or more, including that nice weekday showcase against Marshall. Next week they play ECU. Both are undefeated in C-USA play. Both are in the Eastern Division of C-USA. And that game might decide who wins C-USA East. The other factor is UCF is 1-8 against East Carolina. Last time these two met was in '08 and UCF lost a heartbreaker in overtime.

On the other side of the coin, UCF beat a banged-up and depleted Rice last year 49-7. So what you could have is a situation where Rice is looking for redemption against last year's beat down while UCF could be looking past a "cream puff" they beat up last year and looking ahead to a game for their division title against a team that nearly always beats them. UCF has also been playing a 2 QB rotation and its second QB got hurt last week and is out for the season.

I'm not saying all this is enough for Rice to win outright. But it might be enough for UCF to slack off just enough and Rice play tough enough to get the now slightly more than 3 TD cover. Also UCF has now had 4 ATS wins in a row. Usually, the books adjust to that kind of trend and inflate the spread against the favorite a bit more. And, indeed, this 21+ point spread is by far the biggest UCF has had against any FBS opponent so far. Previous high was -12 against UAB and they covered that handily 42-7.

I'm not telling anyone to bet this. I was thinking of taking UCF but now I may lay off altogether. Just wanted to give you all some info on the other side of the coin.

M.W. · 10-22-10, 10:23 AM

Good points, dume.