Three Machine Plays for Saturday

bypp · 10-15-10, 11:28 AM

Lookin forward to see how your plays will compare to mine. GL

Machine Choice · 10-15-10, 11:38 AM

edited

dume walker · 10-15-10, 12:00 PM

Looking forwad to your analyses. No interest in Iowa/Michigan or Central Michigan/Miami OH?

AdaBarber · 10-15-10, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Machine Choice

I'll post the write-ups later tonight. It will take awhile to handicap three games. These are the ones I'm doing:

Ohio St / Wisc
Ole Miss / Alabama
Nevada / Hawaii

Although I think Ohio St is overrated, I will give them a fair look. I am not in favor of letting my bias affect my wallet.

I like Ohio St even though they are vastly overrated. But they will win by a TD. I am loving Alabama in this spot. After my Gamecocks did the impossible, I think Alabama bounces back in a big way. And the line is going down because the public is down on Alabama after last week. They are wrong. And I like Hawaii. I think this game will be close.

cwuga9889 · 10-15-10, 12:20 PM

Looking forward to what you have to say Machine. You're the man.

ManBearPig · 10-15-10, 12:23 PM

A lot of people liking our game with Hawaii. I'm hoping for a W is all. I do like the under 74 or 75 is too much IMO.

dume walker · 10-15-10, 12:42 PM

Machine... Something to factor into your OSU/Wisky analysis... Many people state how Wisconsin outgained Ohio State by 180 yards or so last year. What they don't seem to take into account is that Wisconsin ran 89 offensive plays compared to just 40 offensive plays for Ohio State. One of the reasons for that is Ohio State's D ran two interceptions back for TD's and their special teams ran in another for a TD. That means Wisconsin's offense got back-to-back possessions on three different occasions. When that keeps happening, of course, your offense is going to put up more total yards than your opponent's. In the meantime, however, your opponent is putting up more points than you.

BathingApe · 10-15-10, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

A lot of people liking our game with Hawaii. I'm hoping for a W is all. I do like the under 74 or 75 is too much IMO.

You guys won't beat us

I'm just looking forward to a good game (and a cover by Hawaii)

Hawk007 · 10-15-10, 03:10 PM

GL Machine

757sFinest · 10-15-10, 03:13 PM

botth teams will score 40 in the h/n game. this will be a fun one to watch!!

M.W. · 10-15-10, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Machine... Something to factor into your OSU/Wisky analysis... Many people state how Wisconsin outgained Ohio State by 180 yards or so last year. What they don't seem to take into account is that Wisconsin ran 89 offensive plays compared to just 40 offensive plays for Ohio State. One of the reasons for that is Ohio State's D ran two interceptions back for TD's and their special teams ran in another for a TD. That means Wisconsin's offense got back-to-back possessions on three different occasions. When that keeps happening, of course, your offense is going to put up more total yards than your opponent's. In the meantime, however, your opponent is putting up more points than you.

Thank you.

CntryBoy · 10-15-10, 03:34 PM

Lookin forward to your write-ups as always! BOL and keep up the streak!

Machine Choice · 10-15-10, 06:01 PM

edited info. Write-ups in this thread but won't be ready for several hours. I'm driving to Reno

crazyfied · 10-15-10, 09:35 PM

gl machine hope your leaning towards wisc!

Boddhissatva · 10-15-10, 11:06 PM

hurry the fu*k up machine!!! you are on a hot streak!! I gotta know who to bet tomorrow!!

fishtot · 10-16-10, 12:36 AM

lets ride that streak

BathingApe · 10-16-10, 12:48 AM

I'm gonna follow you yet again machine. Either way I'm taking Hawaii though lol.

kp126 · 10-16-10, 01:17 AM

amazing past few weeks.

Blue_Chips · 10-16-10, 01:18 AM

I'm with you. Good luck tomorrow!

Calbears · 10-16-10, 01:22 AM

Went against you on Cincy...learned my lesson

franchised1 · 10-16-10, 04:32 AM

^^^ and i went with him on the last two. im hooked.

frankzig · 10-16-10, 05:00 AM

three games rgat liik good like to see what u have to say

Machine Choice · 10-16-10, 05:02 AM

Machine Plays: 11-2
Current Streak: 10-0

Yes I am pissed off about Ohio State's weak schedule thus far. But after running the numbers and putting in the homework, BACK THIS ******* TEAM TOMORROW! Simply put: Terrel Pryor has been almost flawless, posting 15 TDs against 3 INTs. Two years ago he went into Wisconsin as a freshman and engineered the game-winning drive. What will he do now? One thing he won't be is intimidated. In the last two games, Wisconsin has given up 518 yards and six TDs through the air. Ironically, it was Ohio State's last game where Terrell really cliniced pocket-passing proficiency (passing for more than 300 yards vs Indiana, without rushing once). Wisconsin had better be ready for a true dual threat.

Wisconsin loves to play smash-mouth rush offense, but Ohio State this year has only given up 78 yards per game on the ground. OSU will force Tolzien to throw the ball for first downs. Last year that strategy worked, as Tolzien threw 2 pick-six's. Last year OSU won 31-13 (same two QBs), and there is no reason to believe that Wisconsin has closed that gap enough to cover this spread.

Ohio State will feed off the road frenzy, they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games. You can thank Tressel for that proficiency. All week long OSU has been hearing how they don't deserve to be #1. Expect a pissed-off Buckeye team. Ohio State is 5-1 ATS this year, while Wisky is 1-5. Pull out the wallet and get to work!

Ohio State 33-26

OHIO STATE -3 (buy the 1/2 point if you can. If not -4 is also a good play)

dnange1z · 10-16-10, 05:12 AM

What do you think about the Alabama Money line -1200? I really am tempted to jump on this money line.

ManBearPig · 10-16-10, 05:17 AM

Originally posted by Machine Choice

edited info. Write-ups in this thread but won't be ready for several hours. I'm driving to Reno

That's funny I live in reno...hence the interest in your take on our game with the bows. The sportsbooks are probably like a cash cow for u. Appreciate all ur work and insight...there's a lot to be learned from someone like u

gamemastere · 10-16-10, 05:26 AM

good run man keep up the good work

rybread9 · 10-16-10, 05:31 AM

I like everything except the score. This game WILL NOT go over 50pts. OSU 31 WIS 17

rb3b3 · 10-16-10, 07:09 AM

machine when can we expect the other two? i love that you love ohio st!!!!

mp5070 · 10-16-10, 07:09 AM

Good Luck....may stay away from this game

Machine Choice · 10-16-10, 07:11 AM

When Alabama is sufficiently motivated, they steamroll. Witness the Florida game two weeks ago. They will definitley be motivated this week, since they have no margin for error to get back to the SEC title game and possibly a national title. Saban does not respond well to losses, so he will have the troops fired up.

What I like for Alabama in this contest is the fact that Ole Miss has not seen a real defense yet, and Alabama is going to be a shock to the system of Jeremiah Masoli. I expect him to throw at least two picks in this affair, as he hasn't been real accurate this year (5 INT already against poor defenses). He'll default to the scramble and Alabama will shut that shit down in a hurry.

On the flip side, Ole Miss couldn't defensively stop Jacksonville St or Vanderbilt when the game was on the line, so I don't expect them to stop Ingram & Co. Ole Miss even struggled defensively vs Fresno St. Even with a hobbled Julio Jones, Bama will dominate the trenches for big gains. McElroy protects the ball pretty well, so we won't see turnovers for Alabama. Ole Miss relies on winning shoot-outs. Bama will not give them a shoot-out.

Bama is 3-0 ATS at home this year. In this tight spot, expect them to come out swinging and demolish the Rebs by 24+ points. There is nothing like the home field advantage in Tuscaloosa.

ALABAMA -20.5

r2d2 · 10-16-10, 08:23 AM

machine, does the RLM in the wiscy ohio state game scare you at all? line opened -6 ohio state and despite 67% of public on ohio state, line has dropped to -3.5? Just curious as to your thoughts

Machine Choice · 10-16-10, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by r2d2

machine, does the RLM in the wiscy ohio state game scare you at all? line opened -6 ohio state and despite 67% of public on ohio state, line has dropped to -3.5? Just curious as to your thoughts

I'm not looking at line movements. I'm looking at players and coaches.

Serbone · 10-16-10, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by Machine Choice

I'm not looking at line movements. I'm looking at players and coaches.

Machine: do not answer the loons... handicap the games, don't let them get to you!

(and, I agree, watching line movements is mostly irrelevant)

Machine Choice · 10-16-10, 09:13 AM

Here's your bail-out play. Look, I know this is Hawaii's superbowl going up against a ranked opponent at home...but the bottom line is that Hawaii has not given any indication that they can stop Kaepernick from rushing up and down the field. Hawaii gives up 172 yards per game rushing. Kaepernick has already been battle tested this year against Cal, he's not sweating Hawaii.

Hawaii has a stellar passing game, but Nevada's defense only has to make a couple of stops to put this game away, because Nevada's offense is not going to be slowed down. On paper, Nevada has the better defense.

The simple algebra in this contest goes like this: superior offense - Nevada. superior defense - Nevada. Home field advantage - Hawaii. I'll take my chances on the superstar veteran Kaepernick.

And yes, I realze I'm backing 7 favorites in a row. I don't give a shit. I'm backing the better teams.

NEVADA -6.5