I found these FREE PICKS at the Dual Threat Sports website. A little late for last nights pick but he has Louisville toinght. Their was nothing up for Saturday yet.
Friday, October 14, 2010
Louisville +3 1 unit
You rarely find home underdogs that rush and pass for over 200 yards per game but we have one here w/ the Cardinals. Louisville is averaging 230.3 yards a game on the ground and 249.5 in the air. Dating back to last year’s bowl embarrassment to Florida, the Bearcats have lost four straight games outside Nippert Stadium. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Louisville is also playing much better defensibely under new coach Charlie Strong allowing 354.25 ypg vs teams that avg 366.54 (-12.28 ypg) and allowing 20.5 ppg vs teams that avg 25.92 ppg (-5.92 ppg), both improvements over last years poor numbers (395 ypg & 27.09 ppg). What also impresses me about Louisville is that they went on the road vs. Oregon State as a three touchdown underdog but lost by just 7 points. They outgained the Beavers in that game by 134 yards, done in by a -2 turnover margin. They have great balance with Adam Froman throwing for 1,177 yards at 8.5 yards per pass, and running behind Bilal Powell who already has run for 689 yards at 7.6 yards a carry and 7 TDs. Successfully running the football has made a huge difference for Louisville this year. They are avg 230.3 ypg vs 120.5 last year and are 23-10 ATS after running for over 200 yards in their last game. Louisville is 5-1 ATS as a home dog off back-to-back SU wins. Meanwhile the visitor is 0-4 ATS in Cincinnati games this year. This one figures to be a tight one, so I’ll take the Ville at home plus the 3.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
USF - West Virginia UNDER 45.5 (45) 1 unit WINNER
I have USF - WVU at UNDER 42 w/ a range of 26 to 35. USF offense is really struggling. They've been held below their opponents defensive season avg 3 of 4 games (including Westerm Kentucky) and West Virginia is only allowing 17 ppg (13.6 ppg if you included Coastal Carolina, which I don't). But defensively USF is playing well having held 3 of 4 teams below their offensive season avg by 5.32 ppg (only Florida was able to surpass their season avg thanks to a +5 turnover margin in that game. The game was tied 7-7 at halftime). West Virginia has also held 3 of 4 teams below their offensive season avg by an avg of 5.28 ppg. From a statistical perspective this game should end up around West Vriginia 19-24 points and USF 10.5 to 14.
Friday, October 14, 2010
Louisville +3 1 unit
You rarely find home underdogs that rush and pass for over 200 yards per game but we have one here w/ the Cardinals. Louisville is averaging 230.3 yards a game on the ground and 249.5 in the air. Dating back to last year’s bowl embarrassment to Florida, the Bearcats have lost four straight games outside Nippert Stadium. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Louisville is also playing much better defensibely under new coach Charlie Strong allowing 354.25 ypg vs teams that avg 366.54 (-12.28 ypg) and allowing 20.5 ppg vs teams that avg 25.92 ppg (-5.92 ppg), both improvements over last years poor numbers (395 ypg & 27.09 ppg). What also impresses me about Louisville is that they went on the road vs. Oregon State as a three touchdown underdog but lost by just 7 points. They outgained the Beavers in that game by 134 yards, done in by a -2 turnover margin. They have great balance with Adam Froman throwing for 1,177 yards at 8.5 yards per pass, and running behind Bilal Powell who already has run for 689 yards at 7.6 yards a carry and 7 TDs. Successfully running the football has made a huge difference for Louisville this year. They are avg 230.3 ypg vs 120.5 last year and are 23-10 ATS after running for over 200 yards in their last game. Louisville is 5-1 ATS as a home dog off back-to-back SU wins. Meanwhile the visitor is 0-4 ATS in Cincinnati games this year. This one figures to be a tight one, so I’ll take the Ville at home plus the 3.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
USF - West Virginia UNDER 45.5 (45) 1 unit WINNER
I have USF - WVU at UNDER 42 w/ a range of 26 to 35. USF offense is really struggling. They've been held below their opponents defensive season avg 3 of 4 games (including Westerm Kentucky) and West Virginia is only allowing 17 ppg (13.6 ppg if you included Coastal Carolina, which I don't). But defensively USF is playing well having held 3 of 4 teams below their offensive season avg by 5.32 ppg (only Florida was able to surpass their season avg thanks to a +5 turnover margin in that game. The game was tied 7-7 at halftime). West Virginia has also held 3 of 4 teams below their offensive season avg by an avg of 5.28 ppg. From a statistical perspective this game should end up around West Vriginia 19-24 points and USF 10.5 to 14.
