Machine Choice Early Bird Report: Cincinnati at Louisville

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  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #1
    Machine Choice Early Bird Report: Cincinnati at Louisville
    Machine Plays: 10-2
    Current Streak: 9-0

    Lousiville will see the toughest defense they've played (by far) tomorrow night. They will come in overconfident after pounding Memphis, and they will get a wake-up call in a big way. Cinci coach Butch Jones took the Fresno St loss and completely rebuilt this team in a matter of four weeks, shuffling every OL and replacing three starters. The result: a near win against Oklahoma and a tough game vs NC State on the road (without Cinci's star RB).

    Now factor in the fact that Cinci's RB Pead is finally healthy. What has he done since returning? 169 YARDS vs Oklahoma and 197 YARDS vs Miami-OH (who is a far better team than Memphis, BTW). Look for him to go ******* ape-shit vs a Louisville defense that has surrendered 148 rushing yards per game against second and third-rate competition! Pead has opened the game up for QB Collaros, who is now hitting everything in sight to the tune of 12 TDs and 1 INT (305 yards against Oklahoma).

    Let's not forget what happened last year: the same two QBs faced-off. The result: Cinci 41-10. Granted, Louisville has more offense this year, but I'm not ready just yet to hand the baton to a Louisville club who struggled to get past Eastern Kentucky. Louisville relies on the rush, but Cinci only gives up 85 rushing ypg. Mismatch! And Cinci has faced far better competition.

    ** Now the money factor: Louisville is without their best WR Beaumont **

    Louisville is 2-10 ATS vs the Big East for a reason: their talent hasn't matched their hype.

    CINCI -2.5
  • DangerousOne
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-30-08
    • 249

    #2
    Good Stuff **
    Comment
    • chiliv5
      Restricted User
      • 02-16-10
      • 1273

      #3
      i really like this play..... l'ville is trash.... real trash.
      Comment
      • PickCityz
        SBR High Roller
        • 09-18-10
        • 158

        #4
        Good stuff, like your write-ups.
        Comment
        • Machine Choice
          SBR MVP
          • 12-12-08
          • 3997

          #5
          May need to update the record sooner than I thought
          Comment
          • CntryBoy
            SBR Sharp
            • 09-14-10
            • 415

            #6
            Good stuff once again... I like Cinci here as well.
            Comment
            • Machine Choice
              SBR MVP
              • 12-12-08
              • 3997

              #7
              Record updated. Transform and Roll Out!
              Comment
              • aman86
                SBR MVP
                • 08-29-09
                • 3115

                #8
                What happened to Beaumont? Regardless im expecting a shoot out and will take the live home dog here in this case, ibeasnt as impressed with cincys game against ou as most were they were never really in that one
                Comment
                • Machine Choice
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-12-08
                  • 3997

                  #9
                  Originally posted by aman86
                  What happened to Beaumont? Regardless im expecting a shoot out and will take the live home dog here in this case, ibeasnt as impressed with cincys game against ou as most were they were never really in that one
                  I hope you realize how different Cinci is with Pead in. He did not play in the NC State game.
                  Comment
                  • Machine Choice
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-12-08
                    • 3997

                    #10
                    Louisville team webpage:

                    WR Doug Beaumont is still rehabbing his knee injury. At his Monday press conference, coach Charlie Strong said “There is nobody trying to get back harder than Doug Beaumont. He wants to play and is doing everything possible to get back.” Still, it is unlikely that he will be ready to go this week.
                    Comment
                    • BathingApe
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 08-18-10
                      • 846

                      #11
                      Been really liking your writeups Machine. Will be following you on this play tomorrow as well.
                      Comment
                      • gameday10
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-16-09
                        • 601

                        #12
                        Nice run Machine. Love reading write-ups on people who cap games. I don't have much time because of work so I rely on people like you and others. Feels weird if I take Cincy, that will be all 4 favorites for the weekday games. Cincy, I will probably be on though.
                        Comment
                        • onetrickpony
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-23-10
                          • 9434

                          #13
                          machine ur dead on cant believe the line is so low
                          Comment
                          • sixpackdan
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-30-10
                            • 26

                            #14
                            I'm on cincy as well **. Thanks for your work with the write ups. Following you on this one.
                            Comment
                            • aman86
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-29-09
                              • 3115

                              #15
                              Thank for the info i will reconsider my selection to maybe a no play. Unfortunatley i haven't seen the cards in action yet this year, keep up the good work
                              Comment
                              • Blue_Chips
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-20-10
                                • 1775

                                #16
                                Let's get it!
                                Comment
                                • Romanov
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-08-10
                                  • 4137

                                  #17
                                  Also: Louisville is the public's underdog right now which spells good things for Cinci backers.

                                  edit: nevermind. shit has changed since i last checked. its wise to book em now
                                  Comment
                                  • TPowell
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-21-08
                                    • 18842

                                    #18
                                    Louisville backup RB Vic Anderson is also out for this game. He usually gets 10-15 carries a game and started last year
                                    Comment
                                    • Boddhissatva
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 04-10-09
                                      • 655

                                      #19
                                      great write up...I really don't see how louiseville wins this let alone comes close.
                                      Comment
                                      • Boddhissatva
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 04-10-09
                                        • 655

                                        #20
                                        the only thing that is troubling me about this bet is louisville's performance against oregon st at oregon st. they did really well considering being 20.5 dogs.

                                        I didn't see the game...does anyone have insight on this?

                                        and one other note...Cinci is 0 -2 away.
                                        Comment
                                        • BigDofBA
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 09-30-09
                                          • 19313

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Boddhissatva
                                          the only thing that is troubling me about this bet is louisville's performance against oregon st at oregon st. they did really well considering being 20.5 dogs. I didn't see the game...does anyone have insight on this? and one other note...Cinci is 0 -2 away.
                                          That's exactly what I was thinking. They looked decent against Oregon St.

                                          At first glance Cincy was my play but after winning easily with UCF and K-State, I think I might take Louisville or not play the game.
                                          Comment
                                          • TPowell
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-21-08
                                            • 18842

                                            #22
                                            guys UC is terrible. Miami (Ohio) is pretty comparable to Memphis and Oklahoma IS NOT the Oklahoma of past years. They and Texas are drastically overrated. Your kidding yourself if u think Cincy is still a solid team. Louisville is short on depth however, but energized by first year coach Charlie Strong who has looked pretty good in big games outside of the first half against UK. I would lean Louisville slightly but no play
                                            Comment
                                            • Boddhissatva
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 04-10-09
                                              • 655

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                              That's exactly what I was thinking. They looked decent against Oregon St.

                                              At first glance Cincy was my play but after winning easily with UCF and K-State, I think I might take Louisville or not play the game.
                                              same here...i jumped on ucf and k state...thinking, whoa...that was almost too easy.

                                              well...it's too late. i already made a small wager on cincinatti.
                                              Comment
                                              • pokerwhiz90
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-02-10
                                                • 2618

                                                #24
                                                rlm doesnt make sense, i like louisville who has a higher ranked offense and defense and are playing at home.. both teams will be overconfident and i see this one being pretty high in scoring
                                                Comment
                                                • rybread9
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 08-04-10
                                                  • 137

                                                  #25
                                                  I like it. Nice report.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • zephyr
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 09-19-10
                                                    • 516

                                                    #26
                                                    Great writeup. I lean Cinci, although Louisville has shown some spark. I'm probably not playing a side though. I do like the over. 58.5. It looks to me like this one could get large. Good luck with the play on Cinci. And thanks for the thread.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • caracalla
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-12-05
                                                      • 2549

                                                      #27
                                                      another excellente write-up. BOL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DREEZY
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 10-01-09
                                                        • 210

                                                        #28
                                                        Well, I have Lou +10 on a teaser card, maybe we can both win **.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BathingApe
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 08-18-10
                                                          • 846

                                                          #29
                                                          I locked cincy at -1 1h and -3 game both at -105. Hopefully they come out strong tomorrow.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • qhdlhdjtn
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-13-10
                                                            • 167

                                                            #30
                                                            like it Let's get it
                                                            Comment
                                                            • kings12
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 08-03-10
                                                              • 164

                                                              #31
                                                              Like the pick machine you are on a roll right now.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • udlock4life
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 10-08-10
                                                                • 212

                                                                #32
                                                                awesome
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ACCBlitz
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 07-30-10
                                                                  • 595

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Always love reading your posts Machine. GL
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Foals
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-20-10
                                                                    • 857

                                                                    #34
                                                                    The Cincy RB Pead is an absolute beast. Cincy roll
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 305GURU
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 10-04-10
                                                                      • 1038

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Thanx ** i was thinking the same....i need cinci to roll..
                                                                      Comment
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