Iwin's football picks (college and nfl)

[Iwinwithsports]

THE PICK ; WEST VIRGINIA -10

Tonight's Handicapping Tip
Trend Analysis
Many gamblers rely on trend stats. They are readily available to everyone
on many sites. So why do most gamblers lose with all this information?
a) Most trends even out over time.
b) Most gamblers have great hindsight and little foresight.
c) Most importantly, trend analysis is already built into the line.
Trends are only significant if one team is performing worse than in prior
matchups, and the other is playing better.

Tonight:
The line has been moving towards South Florida since it opened at -12 for four reasons:
1) They played Syracuse (5-1) close in last.
2) Their defense is highly rated.
3) West Virginia almost lost to Marshall 4 games ago.
4) These teams have played each other tight in the past.

Let's look at a few things:
a) Syracuse has compiled a nice record playing some of the weakest teams
in the country. They beat....
Winless Akron, Maine (2-4) who doesn't play anybody, and Colgate.
Colgate has the best record of any team at 2-3.
The 3 wins were against football powerhouses: Princeton, Georgetown and Monmouth.
Heck... I played against Monmouth. It wasn't much different than High School.

b) Although South Florida has a larger student body, West Virginia
does much better recruiting. The team is stocked with superior DNA.

c) This is only South Florida's 2nd away game. They play much better at home.

d) Since a slow start, The Mountaineers are improving. They have covered
in their last 3 games.

e) The Bulls defense has great numbers against bad teams.

[Iwinwithsports]

Today:
The Panthers are 2-3 and not nearly as good as expected (ranked 15th preseason). The Orange are 4-1 and have one of their better squads in years.
Today is homecoming in Syracuse and the Carrier Dome will be packed.

Pittsburgh:
Who have beaten The Panthers:
1) #10 Utah. They are 5-0 and winning games by large margins.
2) #24 Miami. When he's on, QB Jacory Harris, can control a game. He did.
Late turnovers led to an inflated score.
Pitts young QB, Tino Sunseri, got rushed often and had problems.
3) Notre Dame. Out goes the arrogant Charlie Weiss and up goes the program.
I'm not a Notre Dame fan, but they are becoming a good team again.


Syracuse:
Who have The Orange beaten:


PICK: Take The Pitt Panthers -1

[ROYAJA8]

I agree PITT is the play here. I also like TEX AM,

[Iwinwithsports]

Looking good!

[linewiz]

Not sure which I liked better, the reference to WV's superior DNA, or the blank space under "Who Have the Orange Beaten". Well done.

[Iwinwithsports]

Thanks, should have something on the night game in NFL.

[Iwinwithsports]

Turnovers:
I'm not talking about fumbles or interceptions, but team personel.
sportsbooks are having one of their most profitable years because
this NFL season is so difficult to gague. The average roster has "turned-over"
25% of it's players. Arguably you could have all new faces every four years.
Team chemistry suffers.
Team performance is more variable than ever.
The most reliable way to make a winning selection this season is to
go against a team that won it's last game under unusual circumstances.


Today:
Washington:
There is only 1 team that has beaten us twice this year..... The Redskins.
Let's look at those 2 games.
1) The Eagles: This was Kevin Kolb's first full game start this year after
the injury to Mike Vick. He took way too long checking off receivers and
the Philadelphia linebackers couldn't contain the run.
2) The Packers: Controlled the game early, and by mid 2nd quarter had
lost 2 starters on offense and 5 starters on defense to injury.
Indianapolis:
Manning has not looked as sharp this year. Some think his best days
are behind him. I don't. In year's past he's been able to get plays off
more quickly. This years line rule change has slowed his game a little.
The Redskins defense is rated the worst in the league, while The Colts
offense is rated 3rd. Somethings got to give this week.
Manning has many more offensive options than McNabb.
Joseph Addai should be productive, and help open up the passing game.
Washington has been taking some money because the colts secondary
is banged up. Many analysts and handicappers think McNabb will
be able to take advantage of this weakness because he is playing so well.
I must be watching a different quarterback.


PICK: Take The Colts -3

[Iwinwithsports]

Good luck tonight guys!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Iwinwithsports]

Handicapping Comment of the Day:
Noted Harvard professor Stephen Gould wrote a provocative book
called "The Mismeasure of Man". As we'are all aware, he
discussed 19th century studies of early polygenists, who assumed
that different human races were actually derived from different species.
These early "evolutionists" studied cranial sizes and
other physical features, and tried to jam illogical statistics into
logical categories. They chronologically categorized and rated
different cultures, and then tried to manipulate data to validate
their assertions.

Did I bore you yet ? I hope so.

Just had to write something a little more discerning after some
of the emails that I got from other handicappers yesterday.
Do you know they ALL had winning weekends again?.....after manipulating
their data. Sportsbooks must be taking a beating, when nobody loses.
Actually.... this has been one of their most profitable seasons ever.

Let's see if we can continue our REAL winning record.



Today:
Jacksonville:
In the past you thought of this game as more of a defensive effort.
Not anymore. These teams are actually pretty similar. They both have
better run than pass defenses. Their offenses have more success
on the ground. Both are very inconsistent, not unlike most of the
teams in the league this year.
The Jags safeties have played poorly. The coaching staff is not happy,
and has attempted to juggle the personel. Their linebackers have not
been impressive, missing tackles, and lacking a needed 2nd effort.
This could mean a big day for Chris Johnson.
Jacksonville's defense has been giving up almost 300 yards passing per game,
and has allowed the most TD passes in the league (12).
Tennessee:
I've heard some analysts say that The Titans poor defense isn't really
that bad because they've played against the strong offenses of Denver,
Dallas and New York. I must be missing something. E. Manning has
played against some of the worst defenses in the league this year,
and Tony Romo is 1-4. The Titans gave up 511 yards to Dallas last week,
406 of those yards were passing.

Don't have a clue who wins the game, but two pourous secondaries
should allow some scoring, and open up two potent running games.

PICK: Take The OVER

[bigcat1]

i guess i lost another one, played a teaser +10 and under 52

[Iwinwithsports]

We will see.

Good Luck

[Iwinwithsports]

Sunday

Today: The Titans:
Was Tennessee that impressive on Monday, or was Jacksonville that bad?
Actually, Jacksonville's game plan was that bad.
The Titans keyed on running back Jones-Drew, QB Garrard was off and then injured,
and the Jags did not have a viable alternate game plan. In the 4th quarter,
they needed 3 scores but continued to run the ball up the middle. I have no
idea what coach Del Rio was thinking, unless he just had no faith in backup
QB Trent Edwards.
The Titans have lost their last 2 home games.
The Titans rely on their running game. Contain Chris Johnson and you can win. Their passing offense is 4th worst in the league.


Funny game: The Titans have one of the leagues best pass rushing defenses.
They're led by 3 Eagles castoffs: DE Jason Babin(six sacks),
Will Witherspoon (originally an Oakland castoff with three sacks), and
DE Dave Ball (five sacks).

Funny game: The Eagles injured offensive line is now anchored by three players
that didn't look like they belonged in the league last year......
Mike McGlynn, King Dunlap and Winston Justice.


The Eagles:
Kolb was impressive last week. He got rid of the ball quicker, and seemed
to have a much better feel for the game. The loss of DeJean Jackson will hurt,
but Jeremy Maclin may be just as good, and he's bigger. The other starting receiver,
Jason Avant, has great hands. The once pourous defense... now isn't.
Their running back, McCoy can play. Look for some big plays thrown
towards the tight end Brent Celek.

Summary:
You may get to see both Titan QB's today. It may not matter.
I thought Vince Young would be a better player and Kerry Collins is getting pretty old.

There are two ways to find out how his age.
1) Radiocarbon dating.

2) When he played at Penn State, Vanilla Ice had the Song Of The Year, and
Shoulder Pads were in fashion for women!


PICK: Take The Eagles +3.5 (You might want to put a little on money line.)

[Iwinwithsports]

Good luck everyone