THE PICK ; WEST VIRGINIA -10
Tonight's Handicapping Tip
Trend Analysis
Many gamblers rely on trend stats. They are readily available to everyone
on many sites. So why do most gamblers lose with all this information?
a) Most trends even out over time.
b) Most gamblers have great hindsight and little foresight.
c) Most importantly, trend analysis is already built into the line.
Trends are only significant if one team is performing worse than in prior
matchups, and the other is playing better.
Tonight:
The line has been moving towards South Florida since it opened at -12 for four reasons:
1) They played Syracuse (5-1) close in last.
2) Their defense is highly rated.
3) West Virginia almost lost to Marshall 4 games ago.
4) These teams have played each other tight in the past.
Let's look at a few things:
a) Syracuse has compiled a nice record playing some of the weakest teams
in the country. They beat....
Winless Akron, Maine (2-4) who doesn't play anybody, and Colgate.
Colgate has the best record of any team at 2-3.
The 3 wins were against football powerhouses: Princeton, Georgetown and Monmouth.
Heck... I played against Monmouth. It wasn't much different than High School.
b) Although South Florida has a larger student body, West Virginia
does much better recruiting. The team is stocked with superior DNA.
c) This is only South Florida's 2nd away game. They play much better at home.
d) Since a slow start, The Mountaineers are improving. They have covered
in their last 3 games.
e) The Bulls defense has great numbers against bad teams.
Tonight's Handicapping Tip
Trend Analysis
Many gamblers rely on trend stats. They are readily available to everyone
on many sites. So why do most gamblers lose with all this information?
a) Most trends even out over time.
b) Most gamblers have great hindsight and little foresight.
c) Most importantly, trend analysis is already built into the line.
Trends are only significant if one team is performing worse than in prior
matchups, and the other is playing better.
Tonight:
The line has been moving towards South Florida since it opened at -12 for four reasons:
1) They played Syracuse (5-1) close in last.
2) Their defense is highly rated.
3) West Virginia almost lost to Marshall 4 games ago.
4) These teams have played each other tight in the past.
Let's look at a few things:
a) Syracuse has compiled a nice record playing some of the weakest teams
in the country. They beat....
Winless Akron, Maine (2-4) who doesn't play anybody, and Colgate.
Colgate has the best record of any team at 2-3.
The 3 wins were against football powerhouses: Princeton, Georgetown and Monmouth.
Heck... I played against Monmouth. It wasn't much different than High School.
b) Although South Florida has a larger student body, West Virginia
does much better recruiting. The team is stocked with superior DNA.
c) This is only South Florida's 2nd away game. They play much better at home.
d) Since a slow start, The Mountaineers are improving. They have covered
in their last 3 games.
e) The Bulls defense has great numbers against bad teams.