Marshall vs Central Florida: The Right Play

[pokerwhiz90]

Hey so I've been on a pretty nice streak on my right plays, including NFL, MLB, Tennis and Soccer, now I think I have a "right play" for this weeks opening game for NCAA FB.

My Pick: Take the under 44 as the under is 6-2 in their previous 8 matchups.

Trends:
UCF is 0-5 SU after scoring 36-42 points their previous game.

About 4 more trends apply to Marshall (5-1) in this situation, as home dogs after a SU loss, before playing East Carolina, etc. All the trends point towards this direction


WARNING: Personally this right play seems weak as Marshall is also 0-4 in their last 4 conference usa matchups ATS. Also UCF is playing exceptionally better than previous seasons against a struggling Marshall team who is under new coaching and staff. However, my final decision is looking at the RLM and the historical trends, Marshall and points is the right way to go.


Strong lean is toward toward Marshall, as UCF is a weak road scoring team and Marshall is a weak scoring team in general. Best of luck, if my opinion changes, I will redo this thread before the game however this is what it looks like so far!

BEST OF LUCK BETTING

[pokerwhiz90]

bump, i edited the pick to under 44

[jpowderly]

I hate trends , they only apply on rare circumstances.

[pokerwhiz90]

i mean... marshall has lost 5 of its last 6 games ats or is 1-5 in its last 6 ats.... i think that trend might be somewhat accurate coming into a hot ucf team. At the same time, the rlm suggests me taking marshall.... knowing that marshall is a worse team than the previous years especially under a new coach... i think thats a no play.. instead the under looks really good here as ucf is a terrible scoring team on the road and marshall is just a terrible offensive team period, especially against the number 5 defense.

[douglastdietzold]

[over is the play. easily in the 50s.

[fury]

I love UCF to cover easily. Marshall is garbage.

[pokerwhiz90]

Everything in my gut is telling me UCF will win this one 24-10... However the RLM and the history between these two teams is confusing me. Under is the safe play in this one, like I said, I really don't like any play greatly but if you were to put a gun to my head... I would take the under. UCF never plays well after an offensive blowout at home, thats another thing for those who are looking at the over.

[kidcd]

UCF for me

[pokerwhiz90]

Come on guys, I've done all the research looking at everything from injury reports, to trends to how accurate history would even apply to the current match up and how the teams have changed through the past years. I know everything about this game and the most agreeable play is under. Historically it has always been under. If you look at UCF playing road games, they can't score, but their defense is still dominant. Not only trends, but the current strengths of both teams lead you to under.

If you going to look at the spread, the sharp play is Marshall at +5, common sense play that makes you wanna kill yourself by putting your money on anything else is at UCF ats.

If you prefer to ignore the under, atleast parlay or if bet this one with whatever you choose ats. Best of LUCK especially to the Marshall backers.