my First official Ncaaf Season Thread<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>><<<<<<

goallinebob · 10-23-10, 11:21 PM

not too bad for a saturday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

goallinebob · 10-23-10, 11:24 PM

Congrats Diesel and packbacker for all your hard work and INSIGHT,,,

goallinebob · 10-24-10, 08:07 AM

Packs plays and i thank you as i Incorporated them into my system the ones that met criteria

Northwestern +5.5 L (Tough Loss)(Started at +7 & went to +5.5 with 67% on Mich State),, we got screwed on this play
Syracuse +13.5 W (Outright win)(Started at +16 & dropped to +13.5 w. 78% on WVU) avoided and lost
Iowa State +20.5 W (Outright win)(Started at +22 to +20.5 w. 74% on TX)
Maryland +4 W (Outright win)(Started at +5.5 and dropped to +4 with 54% on BC)
Houston +8 W (Outright win)(Line went from +9.5 to +8 with 60% on SMU)
Akron +7.5 L (Blow Out)(Line went from +8.5 to +7.5 with 73% om W. Mich,, avoided
Washington +6 L (Line went from +7 to +6 with 62% on Arizona),,Avoided

goallinebob · 10-24-10, 08:11 AM

Thanks again Diesel as i incorporated your plays as well into my saturdays winners

Fade system plays for 1 unit
46% Miami -6.5 (-105)..........................Won
46% Clemson -4.5 (-105).......................Won
48% Pittsburgh -12.5 (-110)...................Won
37% Stanford -35.5 (-106)......................Lost
48% Middle Tenn. St. -12 (-103)..............Won

goallinebob · 10-28-10, 02:58 PM

Resurecting this for this week,,and brother have we come a long way,,,,,,,,digging into this RLM has opened my eyes wide

so what are the plays this week

Lets examine a few games ( all Pregame ),not a play unless all games have 5,000 bets or more,,must have a +1
spread,,,supposedly if line does not change then the dog is supposed to be the play,,This still needs to be confirmed for me

Fla St opened at - 3.5 current line is -3.5 for last 4 days,, play is NC St +3.5
W Vir opened at -6,,current line is -6.5,, .05 diff,, No Play
S Miss opened at -9.5 current line -9.5 play is UAB,,,,,
Ill opened at - 15 and currently at -17,,,,play is ILL ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+2
Mia opened -14.5 and currently at -15.5,,play is MIA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+1
Pitt opened -10.5 and currently at -9,,,,,,play is Louv ,,,,,,,,,,,,,+1.5
Iowa opened at -4 and currently at -6.5,,play is Iowa,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+2.5
NW opened at -3 and currently -3,,,,,,,,,,,play is indiana,,,,,,,,,,,even
Clemson -6.5,,,,,,and currently -7,,,, .05 diff,,,NP,,lean Clemson
MD opened -6 and currently -5.5,,,.05 diff,,,,,,NP,, lean Wake
NIU opened - 8 current line is -8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,play WMU,,,,,,,even
S /Car opened -18.5 and currently -17.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,play Tenn,,,,,,+1

I will add more as week progresses,,,,,,,i am using this in the NBA also

yesterdays NBA results

5 teams fit RLM criteria,,,,,4 won
Detroit +4 and at game time +4
Cavs + 5 and at game time + 4 = +1
NY +2 and at game time +1 = +1
Hawks +3 and at game time + 2 = + 1
76ers + +9 and at game time +8 = Loss,,missed by 2 points or one bucket

i still need to apply my other factors for plays along with the RLM plays

went back over all games last week with lines from open to final closing lines and will post them as was interesting

goallinebob · 10-28-10, 03:00 PM

looked at comparisons from last week and Negative #'s that increased were as
( all against the RLM),, ppears if you go against the RLM where line increases last week you would be way ahead,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,25-6,,,,,if played

PK to -3,,,L
-5 to -6,, one W and one L
-8.5 to -9.5,,,W
-11.5 to - 13,,W
-12 to -12.5 ,,,2 W's
-12 to -13.5 ,,W
-1 to - 2.5,,W
-1 to -3,,W
-1.5 to - 2.5,,W
-2.5 to -3,,,L&W
-3.5 to -4 ,,W
-3.5 to - 6,,,W
-6 to -6.5,,,W & L
-6 to -7.5,,W
-9.5 to -10,,,W
-9.5 to - 10.5,,,L
-10 to -12,,,W
-10.5 to -11.5,,L
-16 to - 19,,L
-21 to -22.5,,W
-21 to - -24,,W
-21.5 to -24,,W,
-23 to -23.5,,,W&W
-26.5 to - 27,,,W
- 29.5 to - 30.5,,,W

goallinebob · 10-28-10, 03:03 PM

I incorrectly posted ths wrong

looked at comparisons from last week and Negative #'s that increased were as
( all against the RLM),, ppears if you go against the RLM where line increases last week you would be way ahead,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,25-6,,,,,if played

I should had said,,,,,,, RLM's work on both sides of lines for dogs and favorites but line must be a minimum of + 1 or greater for a better chance for a win

goallinebob · 10-28-10, 04:20 PM

listing all plays as i see them per RLM

Fla St opened at - 3.5 current line is -3.5 for last 4 days,, play is NC St +3.5
W Vir opened at -6,,current line is -6.5,, .05 diff,, No Play
S Miss opened at -9.5 current line -9.5 play is UAB,,,,,
Ill opened at - 15 and currently at -17,,,,play is ILL ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+2
Mia opened -14.5 and currently at -15.5,,play is MIA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+1
Pitt opened -10.5 and currently at -9,,,,,,play is Louv ,,,,,,,,,,,,,+1.5
Iowa opened at -4 and currently at -6.5,,play is Iowa,,,,,,,,,,,,,,+2.5
NW opened at -3 and currently -3,,,,,,,,,,,play is indiana,,,,,,,,,,,even
Clemson -6.5,,,,,,and currently -7,,,, .05 diff,,,NP,,lean Clemson
MD opened -6 and currently -5.5,,,.05 diff,,,,,,NP,, lean Wake
NIU opened - 8 current line is -8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,play WMU,,,,,,,even
S /Car opened -18.5 and currently -17.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,play Tenn,,,,,,+1
Arkansas opened -22.5 and currently at -20,,,,,,,,play Vandy ,,,,+ 2.5
Miss St opened -6.5 and currently at 6.5,,,equal,,, lean Kentucky
Auburn opened - 8.5 and currently at - 7,,,,,,,,,,,,play miss + 1.5
Texas opened at -8 and currently at -7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,play Baylor +1
Temple opened at -27 and currently at -29.5,,,,,,,play Temple 2.5
Kent opened at -9 and currently at -10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,play Kent 1
SDS opened at -10.5 and currently at -10,,,.05 diff,,No Play
N Dame opened at -9.5 and currently at -8.5,,,,,,,,play Tulsa
Marsh opened -3 and currently -3,,,,,,,even ,,,,,,,,,,,NP,,,,
SMU opened at -8,,and currently at -8,,even,,,,,,,,,,NP
CMU opened at -11 and currently at -11.5,,,.05 Diff,,,,,,NP
stanf opened at -7 and currently at -7,,,,,,,even,,,,NP
Geo opened at -1.5 and currently at -3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,play Georgia 1.5
UCF opened at -7 and currently at -7.5,,,,.05 diff,,,,,NP
Ariz opened at -9.5 and currently at -9.5,,,even,,,,,,,NP

will continue this later ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

If any of you RLM experts are out there apprec your opinions,,,

khaden · 10-28-10, 04:47 PM

Im not an expert but I don't see the RLM on FSU-majority of action is on FSU and the line is moving in the appropriate direction-

goallinebob · 10-28-10, 04:48 PM

Last week my best category plays that i always play( nothing to do with RLM) these teams are winning at a clip of
19- 6 over all weeks in the NCAAF except week # 1 as i always do not play first week,,,Thats info week for me,additionally
the category plays that fit over the last 4 weeks went 13-4,,,and last week i only had ,,,3 plays that fit the system and they went 3-0

Clemson,,,,-5.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Nebraska,,,-5.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

TCU,,,,,,,,- 18.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

________________________________________ ________________
This week i am Gifted with 5 plays that fit system
teams that fall into this 13-4 category over last 4 weeks are( 19-6) all weeks
Illinois -16.5
Cen Mich -11.5
Ariz - 8.5
texas A & M - 6.5
Nevada - 25.5

I will be on all these teams this week along with my RLM plays

goallinebob · 10-28-10, 04:54 PM

Khaden yes i agree as still trying to understand this RLM,, but as i have been told if line does not move that is due to books getting enough action on equal sides so line does not need to be adjusted,,,,,,,,my problem is what side is the correct side,, as noted further if even maybe the best play is NO PLAY,,,,,but i failed to note that in post,,,,
maybe someone can clear this up,,

goallinebob · 10-30-10, 12:16 PM

Final plays for Saturday 10-30-10 for me

First my category plays as rarely do they disappoint me,,,,those that fit criteria
ILLINOIS
CMU
A&M
ARIZONA
NEVADA
_______________________
RLM Plays ( Thanks Pack) and others

Duke +12.5
Kansas St. +4.5
Vanderbilt +20
West Michigan +7
________________________________________
Against Dog plays,,( Thanks diesel ),, had almost all,,,

My dog sytem plays
42% Illinois -17 (-104),,,,,,,,,Matches my play
48% Pittsburgh -9 (-105)
40% Iowa -6.5 (-105)
48% Mississippi -6.5 (-105)
48% Iowa st. -17.5 (-105)
30% Marshall -2.5 (-101)
44% Nebraska -8 (-105)
38% San Jose St. -3 (-110)
38% Arizona St. -21.5 (-103
___________________________________
Diesel's RLM plays

2.5 point line movement
20% Arkon +29.5 (-108),, can they be trusted ??? shit the bed last start

2 point line movement
42% Illinois -17 (-104),,,,,,,,,,,,,love this play
18% Vanderbilt +17.5 (-110)

1.5 line movement
40% Iowa -6.5 (-105)
30% Mississippi +7 (-107)
37% Kansas St +4 (-105)
44% Nebraska -8 (-105)
41% Texas Tech +7.5 (-108)
________________________________________ _
My Additional System plays designed around my ratings
Arkansas but conflicts with RLM vandy
Oklahoma
SJS
Navy but conflicts with ,,RLM Duke
TCU
NIU but conflicts with RLM WMU
MIA Ohio
Temple
Houst
S Miss
SMU

goallinebob · 10-30-10, 12:17 PM

one correction Thats Miss St not Miss in diesels list

goallinebob · 10-30-10, 10:51 PM

Final plays for Saturday 10-30-10 for me

First my category plays as rarely do they disappoint me,,,,those that fit criteria
ILLINOIS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

CMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Loss
A&M,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

ARIZONA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Loss
NEVADA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,Pending
_______________________
RLM Plays ( Thanks Pack) and others

Duke +12.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Kansas St. +4.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Loss
Vanderbilt +20,,,,,,,,,,,Loss,,2nd week in a row these guys shit the bed
West Michigan +7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,, got at casino + 8.5,,lucky me
________________________________________
Against Dog plays,,( Thanks diesel ),, had almost all,,,

My dog sytem plays
42% Illinois -17 (-104),,,,,,,,,Matches my play

48% Pittsburgh -9 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

40% Iowa -6.5 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

48% Mississippi St-6.5 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

48% Iowa st. -17.5 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

30% Marshall -2.5 (-101),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

44% Nebraska -8 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,

38% San Jose St. -3 (-110),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

38% Arizona St. -21.5 (-103,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

___________________________________
Diesel's RLM plays

2.5 point line movement
20% Arkon +29.5 (-108),, can they be trusted ??? shit the bed last start,,,,,,,,,,,:ban

2 point line movement
42% Illinois -17 (-104),,,,,,,,,,,,,love this play,,,,,,,,,,
18% Vanderbilt +17.5 (-110),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

1.5 line movement
40% Iowa -6.5 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
30% Mississippi St+7 (-107),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
37% Kansas St +4 (-105),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
44% Nebraska -8 (-105)............................
41% Texas Tech +7.5 (-108),,,,,,,,,,,,,Played A&M,,,,,,,,,,

________________________________________ _
My Additional System plays designed around my ratings
Arkansas but conflicts with RLM vandy,,,,,,,knew better,,,
Oklahoma,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

SJS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,

Navy but conflicts with ,,RLM Duke,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Followed pack glad i did,,

TCU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,Pending
NIU but conflicts with RLM WMU,,,,Got it at +8.5,,,Phew,,

MIA Ohio,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Temple,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Houst,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

S Miss,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

SMU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Overall another Great Saturday,,,,,,,,,,,

,,, thanks guys for your help,,,

goallinebob · 10-31-10, 12:41 PM

Reviewing all plays from yesterday,,,,,and believe i have found some variables that could enhance win percentage next week,,,,,,,,,,,,