rsnnh12's NCAAF $10 Teaser Challenge

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  • rsnnh12
    SBR MVP
    • 09-26-10
    • 3487

    #1
    rsnnh12's NCAAF $10 Teaser Challenge
    So, I just posted this in the NFL forum, but I decided to try one for NCAA as well. Here's a copy-paste of that thread (NCAA exchanged for NFL, of course )-

    Hi everyone

    I thought I would try an experiment. Starting with $10, I will bet on a 3 team, 10 point teaser every week, picking what I feel are the strongest plays. If I win the first week, I will roll the winnings into the next week, and place all of that into a new teaser. I will play this out till the end of the season, or until I lose. If I lose, I will try one more time, starting the next week, again with $10.

    I will be using 5Dimes for this challenge. They pay out (-115) for 3 team teasers, with 10 points, and ties REDUCING. If all 3 plays are at half points when I place the bet, I will change it to a ties lose bet, which pays (-110). I have a feeling I will be doing mostly "reducing" for this though.

    I am new to sports betting, but am big into stocks, and I am taking a strategy from that into this challenge. That strategy is, essentially, compounding interest. Each win will pay out ~87% of the bet. I ran the math on this, and am posting below the approximate expected bankroll, if I continue to win. (Note- "week" represents what week the NCAA is in, since I am starting this in week 5)

    Week 5- $10--->$18.70
    Week 6- $18.70--->$34.97
    Week 7- $34.97--->$65.39
    Week 8- $65.39--->$122.28
    Week 9- $122.28--->$228.67
    Week 10- $228.67--->$427.61
    Week 11- $427.61--->$799.63

    You see where this is going. If I can make it into week 9 without losing ($100 mark), I will probably be taking $10 out to use a different set of 3 teasers each week, continuing in this pattern.

    Again, I am only taking what I feel are the strongest NCAA teasers each week. I will use this thread to post my early thoughts on Mon-Wed, and list my final choice when I make it heading into the weekend. I will pick out 5-8 games per week that I am looking at, and encourage anyone to post their thoughts on those matchups. I will list my early thoughts in the next post, with the lines that they are currently at.

    Wish me luck

    And if anyone has any questions, comments, etc, please feel free to post it here. I know this will not be easy, but I think this could be a fun ride. And with only betting $10, there really isn't much risked
  • Mirrapro
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-21-10
    • 268

    #2
    I love this. I think teasers are always fun to play around with. Ill follow you in this one. BOL!
    Comment
    • rsnnh12
      SBR MVP
      • 09-26-10
      • 3487

      #3
      Week 5-

      Iowa +3, vs Penn State (@ Iowa)
      Vanderbilt +17.5, vs UConn (@ UCONN)
      Michigan EVEN, vs Indiana (@ Indiana)
      NC State +14, vs Virginia Tech (@ NCST)
      North Carolina -3, vs East Carolina (@ UNC)
      Notre Dame +7.5, vs Boston College (@ BC)
      Tennessee +26, vs LSU (@ LSU)
      Tennessee vs LSU, OVER 32.5
      Ohio State -7, vs Illinois (@ IL)
      UTEP -5, vs New Mexico (@ NM)
      Alabama +2.5, vs Florida (@ Bama)
      Boise St -33.5, vs New Mexico St (@ NMSt)
      Stanford +17, vs Oregon (@Oregon)
      Nevada -10.5, vs UNLV (@UNLV)
      Hawaii +2, vs Louisiana Tech (@ Hawaii)

      Alright, so that's my "short" list of games I'm looking at

      Would appreciate any and all thoughts on this.

      I am leaning towards these 4 right now, but nothing is even close to set in stone-
      Iowa +3
      Alabama +2.5
      Stanford +17
      Nevada -10.5 (Yes, UNLV is that bad)

      Comment
      • rsnnh12
        SBR MVP
        • 09-26-10
        • 3487

        #4
        Originally posted by Mirrapro
        I love this. I think teasers are always fun to play around with. Ill follow you in this one. BOL!
        Thanks Mirra

        Teasers are definitely fun, and when there isn't much being risked, it makes it 10X more enjoyable.

        Hardest part of this will be discipline, if I win the first couple of weeks. I am pretty confident I can stay with it though, knowing I only risked $10 initially.

        Enjoy the ride!
        Comment
        • Mirrapro
          SBR Sharp
          • 09-21-10
          • 268

          #5
          Just a few thoughts. NC state +14 sounds really great to me. Also Maryland hosting Duke...Iv really been looking into that one.
          Comment
          • rsnnh12
            SBR MVP
            • 09-26-10
            • 3487

            #6
            Haven't seen Maryland yet this year... are they looking pretty decent? I would get them at +2.5, which sounds pretty good for a home team against Duke
            Comment
            • Mirrapro
              SBR Sharp
              • 09-21-10
              • 268

              #7
              I think Maryland should win by around 10 but since its an ACC game it makes me uneasy. Probably not a safe bet now that I really think about it compared to others you could get.
              Comment
              • rsnnh12
                SBR MVP
                • 09-26-10
                • 3487

                #8
                Okay, I'm definitely going with Alabama +2.


                Leaning towards Iowa +3 and Stanford +17 to finish it out, unless someone can convince me otherwise.... any better plays than those 2?
                Comment
                • stefan084
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-21-09
                  • 1490

                  #9
                  i really like the four you have. i'm playing them also
                  Comment
                  • delve_deeper
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 03-29-08
                    • 331

                    #10
                    Looks solid. BOL.
                    Comment
                    • StillSmokin
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 09-23-10
                      • 183

                      #11
                      Really like NC State +14 and Tennessee +26. Nevada -10.5 and Stanford +17 also look nice.


                      What about these:

                      Oklahoma St. +6
                      Oklahoma St/Texas A&M - UNDER 76
                      Minnesota +16.5
                      East Carolina +23.5
                      TCU/Colorado St. - OVER 44
                      Ohio St./Illinois - OVER 40.5
                      UL Monroe +45.5
                      Comment
                      • rsnnh12
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-26-10
                        • 3487

                        #12
                        A lot of those look good too. Too many to choose from.


                        I am 95% sure I am going with-
                        Alabama +2.
                        Iowa +3
                        Stanford +17

                        All 3 are in big games, with Bama fighting to keep their #1 ranking (at home), Iowa fighting to stay atop the Big Ten (also at home), and probably the best-coached team in the country going into a huge game at Oregon. I am a little worried about this one, but Stanford looks great right now, and I can't see how Oregon can win by 3 TDs.

                        Possible replacement for Stanford- Ohio State -7 (@ IL)
                        Comment
                        • rsnnh12
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-26-10
                          • 3487

                          #13
                          Locked in these picks for Saturday-

                          Alabama +2

                          Iowa +3

                          Ohio State -7

                          Risking $10 to win $8.70... let's get this started off with a win!


                          Comment
                          • rsnnh12
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-26-10
                            • 3487

                            #14
                            Alabama +2

                            Iowa +3

                            Ohio State -7


                            1-0, +$8.70

                            Next week's bet- $18.70


                            3 nice wins today, although THE Ohio State University gave me a scare in the early game. Luckily, Bama and Iowa dominated, so it was a stress-free evening for this teaser.

                            Games that have piqued my interest for next week- Bama/South Carolina, UConn/Rutgers, Nebraska/Kansas St, TCU/Wyoming, Oregon/Wash St, Stanford/USC

                            Looks like it could be another good week of football... hopefully some nice bets go along with that


                            Comment
                            • rsnnh12
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-26-10
                              • 3487

                              #15
                              Okay, I'm locking in my picks early, because the lines are set up pretty nicely and I don't want them to move against me.

                              Michigan State +14.5 @ Michigan

                              Alabama +3.5 @ South Carolina

                              Oregon -26 @ Washington State

                              Risking $18.70 to win $16.26



                              I'm a little nervous taking 3 road teams here. Michigan State has a pretty decent defense, should be able to stop Michigan a few times, and Michigan's defense is horrible. Should be a shootout, and I actually think this game goes to OT. I just don't think a well-rounded MSU team loses by more than 2 TDs in their biggest game so far this year.

                              Can't root against Bama, even though they are in their 3rd straight tough game. They thoroughly manhandled Florida last week, look for more of the same against SC.

                              Oregon moved up to 3rd in the rankings after beating Stanford, and knows they need blowout wins to keep that ranking. The only reason they gained a spot was because Boise State played a bad team, so they know how important blowouts are for their BCS hopes. If they let Washington State keep it close, they will probably lose a spot or 2 in the rankings. Plus, Wash St has lost 65-17 to Oklahoma St and 50-16 (at home) to USC. Averaging 21 points per game, giving up 42. Lost by 14 in their other 2 losses. Meanwhile, fewest points Oregon has scored is 42, and they average over 56 per game. Average winning margin of 41.

                              Thoughts here? I feel fairly confident in these games. Most worried about MSU playing horribly this weekend, but Dantonio possibly coming back should have them fired up

                              Comment
                              • rsnnh12
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-26-10
                                • 3487

                                #16
                                Rough week. Starting back at $10 for this week.

                                Boise St @ San Jose St OVER 47

                                MSU +3 vs Illinois

                                Iowa +6.5 @ Michigan


                                Boise should easily score 50 on their own... they'll need to if they want a chance at the NC. MSU has looked amazing this year, and I don't think Illinois is good enough to put up 3 great games in a row. MSU will keep moving up the rankings. Michigan isn't all they are hyped up to be, and they should struggle to move the ball, much like last week.

                                Risking $10 to win $8.70
                                Comment
                                • rsnnh12
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-26-10
                                  • 3487

                                  #17
                                  Boise St @ San Jose St OVER 47

                                  MSU +3 vs Illinois

                                  Iowa +6.5 @ Michigan

                                  $18.70 into next weekEarly leans- Michigan State +3 at Northwestern, South Carolina -2.5 at Vanderbilt, Miami Florida +3.5 vs North Carolina, Indiana +23.5 at Illinois
                                  Comment
                                  • rsnnh12
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-26-10
                                    • 3487

                                    #18
                                    Risking $18.70 to win $16.26


                                    Oregon -14 vs UCLA (should have gotten on this earlier today at -12 :/)

                                    Alabama -6.5 @ Tennessee

                                    South Carolina -2 @ Vanderbilt

                                    Okay, so I HATE teasing down 3 double digit favorites, but I really don't like any other plays on the board, and already have a few parlays relying on MSU beating Northwestern, so I'm staying away from that game here.

                                    Oregon should roll fairly easily, Bama is coming off of a strong game, and still have that sour taste in their mouth from South Carolina, and the SC should roll right over a prettyy bad Vanderbilt team. We'll see what happens I guess.
                                    Comment
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