D.P.'s Week 5 NCAAF Picks (63% YTD)

[daprospecta]

YTD 27-13 (+5U) on a 3 unit system

These are my leans so far. These plays passed my initial tests. Will explain my early leans pick if asked and will provide write-ups on final picks upon request. Here are my early leans:

Oklahoma St. -3 vs TAMU
Army + 5 vs Temple
Virginia + 7 vs FSU
Colorado + 5 vs Georgia
Miami -3.5 vs Clemson
Northwestern -5.5
ULM + 35 vs Auburn
NC State +4 vs VT
Miami Oh +3 vs Kent St
FIU + 19 vs Pitt
Bowling Green -3.5 vs Buffalo
East Carolina + 13.5 vs UNC
Stanford + 7 vs Oregon Under 65.5
Hawaii -8

[daprospecta]

Final Card:

Oklahoma St. -4 vs TAMU (0.5U)
Army + 5 vs Temple (1U)
Virginia + 8 vs FSU (0.5U)
Northwestern -6.5 (1.5U)
ULM + 35.5 vs Auburn (0.5U)
Miami Oh +3 vs Kent St (1U)
FIU + 19 vs Pitt (1U)
Bowling Green -3.5 vs Buffalo (0.5U) Over 53 (0.5U)
East Carolina + 13.5 vs UNC (1U)
Stanford + 7 vs Oregon (1U) Under 65.5 (0.5U)
Hawaii -9.5 vs LTU (0.5U)

[daprospecta]

Any thoughts?

[oposprey]

Are your picks based on a system/formulas or research/trends?or both?

[daprospecta]

Are your picks based on a system/formulas or research/trends?or both?

I don't use systems, formulas(not really) or trends. I look at trends but don't put much weight unless the teams haven't changed much. I use research. I use stats, match up mismatches, etc.

[daprospecta]

I guess I should explain a bit more. I have 4 tests a team must pass for me feel confident. If they pass 3 and I feel really good about it or it passes all 4 and I still quite don't believe in the pick then I'll play it but a smaller unit. I guess you could call that a formula.

[dodgerblue]

I guess I should explain a bit more. I have 4 tests a team must pass for me feel confident. If they pass 3 and I feel really good about it or it passes all 4 and I still quite don't believe in the pick then I'll play it but a smaller unit. I guess you could call that a formula.

Thx for posting DP.

Do you have your record documented anyone on SBR (previous posts), or is self-reported? Ok if it is self-reported, just thought worth asking!

Thanks!

[daprospecta]

Thx for posting DP.

Do you have your record documented anyone on SBR (previous posts), or is self-reported? Ok if it is self-reported, just thought worth asking!

Thanks!

My record is documented on SBR through posts. If you go look at my previous post or my blog they are all there. If a week is missing from my blog just go to my previous posts. My blog acts funny sometimes about putting all my post in it. If you have a problem finding them I'll post them.

[Night-Tripper]

My record is documented on SBR through posts. If you go look at my previous post or my blog they are all there. If a week is missing from my blog just go to my previous posts. My blog acts funny sometimes about putting all my post in it. If you have a problem finding them I'll post them.

Why don't you simply post your plays in your SBR Spreadsheet?

[oposprey]

Ok, I was just wondering. I use a formula...basically punch in #'s in excel spreadsheet and it spits out spread and O/U. Then bounce it off what the book is and make bet based on betting trends from forums like this. For what its worth I got Army +5, VA+8 and Stanford/Oregon Under 65.5...thanks for posting

[daprospecta]

Week 1

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/644485-dps-thursday-picks.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/650005-d-ps-saturday-picks-some-write-ups.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/652589-d-p-s-sunday-picks-write-ups.html

Week 2

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/654243-d-p-s-labor-day-picks.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/658923-d-p-s-ncaafb-week-2-a.html

Week3

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/672463-d-p-s-week-3-ncaaf-picks.html

Wee k 4

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/683659-d-p-s-ncaaf-week-4-ytd-62-a.html

[daprospecta]

Why don't you simply post your plays in your SBR Spreadsheet?

I've seen people talk about it but I'm not well versed in it. Is that easier?

[daprospecta]

I just checked out the spreadsheet and will posts my picks in there as well. Sorry if you have to look at the posts to verify my record. I will use the spreadsheet from now on.

[awhitejackson]

I like most of your plays save Minnesota at home. Minny Defense is ok despite 1-3 record. Running game of Minnesota (averaging 3 runs every 4 plays) is solid and EATS clock. Hard to really judge Northwestern at this point. God knows their strict academic admissions do not often equal star atheletes. Also the new stadium in Minneapolis has added majorly to that intangible "home field adv". I like Minny to cover here....GL!

[Night-Tripper]

I just checked out the spreadsheet and will posts my picks in there as well. Sorry if you have to look at the posts to verify my record. I will use the spreadsheet from now on.

No need to apologize... I was simply posing a question... and you don't need to verify your record to me or anyone else. I do my own handicapping and I browse the forum more for amusement than betting Tips. However, there are a few people who state that they're putting mega-bucks on plays and claim to have an unbelievable track record... but when I check their spreadsheet, I don't see a damn thing. I don't spend a lot of time giving reasons as to why I'm playing a certain team... I'll just state my play(s) and if anyone is interested, they can check my spreadsheet.

Anyway, if you want to use the spreadsheet, that's cool. If you don't, that's fine too... as srated earlier, I was simply postng a question. Good luck to ya versus tha books!

[mp5070]

Nice...lets make $$$

[mp5070]

...like the Virginia +7 Play.....may play the ML

[daprospecta]

I like most of your plays save Minnesota at home. Minny Defense is ok despite 1-3 record. Running game of Minnesota (averaging 3 runs every 4 plays) is solid and EATS clock. Hard to really judge Northwestern at this point. God knows their strict academic admissions do not often equal star atheletes. Also the new stadium in Minneapolis has added majorly to that intangible "home field adv". I like Minny to cover here....GL!

Other than the fact the NW is better in pretty much better in every offensive category than minny I want to throw out two stats for you.
Opp Yards/Play 5.7 7.4
Opp Points/Play 0.271 0.553

Minny is on the right and those numbers are atrocious. Minny will be lucky to score two touchdowns this game while I see NW scoring 4-5. GL on your other games though.

[daprospecta]

...like the Virginia +7 Play.....may play the ML

I was thinking about the ML as well. Depends on OSU doing what they should do tonight which is win and by two scores. Thanks for stopping by. Here's to a great week

[TO9]

picks look good, good luck this weekend

[covertwo]

Other than the fact the NW is better in pretty much better in every offensive category than minny I want to throw out two stats for you.
Opp Yards/Play 5.7 7.4
Opp Points/Play 0.271 0.553

I like using those numbers as well. Nice work. Total yards, or even points in certain instances can be misleading.

[horseexpert]

GL to you this week

[daprospecta]

picks look good, good luck this weekend

Thanks GL on your picks as well.

[daprospecta]

GL to you this week

Hey thanks. Here's to a good weekend.

[peterpan19]

DP
did you cap CFB b4 or is this your first year ?

BOL

[jwbama23]

Good luck DP

Hey at least I can root for your success this week

[daprospecta]

DP
did you cap CFB b4 or is this your first year ?

BOL

well a friend got me involved last year in cfb and i followed kelso with him which was a mistake i did a little capping toward the end of the year but nothing specific. i tried cbb but was average. this is my first full year of me capping. i think the fact that i played cfb at the d1 level helped me see important stats and what it takes to win.

[daprospecta]

come on cowboys

[daprospecta]

Congrats to everyone who got the cowboys at -2.5 unfort I didn't. No worries. Still got a lot of plays left.

[bonduforlife]

im taking Hawaii pretty big

[daprospecta]

im taking Hawaii pretty big

It was a bigger game for me until the line did a huge jump. Still on them but smaller play. Here's to a good weekend

[daprospecta]

Here's to Utah State going under and hitting the ML parlay for 160 SBR points . Didn't feel comfortable enough to make it an official play and to put money on it. Here's to a money making day.

[odusmykal]

Best of luck today DP.. I am on several of those games with ya.. Lets win some $$$ today brother..

[daprospecta]

Final Card:

Oklahoma St. -4 vs TAMU (0.5U)
Army + 5 vs Temple (1U)
Virginia + 8 vs FSU (0.5U)
Northwestern -6.5 (1.5U)
ULM + 35.5 vs Auburn (0.5U)
Miami Oh +3 vs Kent St (1U)
FIU + 19 vs Pitt (1U)
Bowling Green -3.5 vs Buffalo (0.5U) Over 53 (0.5U)
East Carolina + 13.5 vs UNC (1U)
Stanford + 7 vs Oregon (1U) Under 65.5 (0.5U)
Hawaii -9.5 vs LTU (0.5U)

YTD 30-23 (-2 Units)
Hard week. Will be hard to bounce back from but will try.