Five Can't Miss Winning Plays And Systems For Saturday

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  • bryce_bell
    SBR Rookie
    • 09-22-10
    • 37

    #1
    Five Can't Miss Winning Plays And Systems For Saturday

    Army Black Knights +6.5 @ Duke
    Play Against: Duke coming off a home loss of 30+ points as a big underdog playing a non conference oppoenent with the winning record in the next game as a medium favourite.
    System Rate: 93% 13-1 L14
    Other notable trends: Duke is just 12-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. In the last 13 games as a home favourite they are just 3-9-1 against the number. Playing teams with winning records Duke has covered just once in the last five games. Playing a team with a winning road record, Duke is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16.
    Idaho Vandals -8 @ Colorado State
    Play On: Idaho as a large non conference road favourite coming off a double digit SU and ATS win playing against a winless team coming off a SU loss of more than 20 points.
    System Rate 90% 9-1 L10
    Other notable trends: Idaho has won 6 straight off a win of 20 or more points. They have followed up a winner at the ticket window with 8 of their next 9 games. Coming off a SU win Idaho is 11-3 ATS in their next game over the past 14. Colorado State is winless in their last 6 as a dog, 4 in non conference games, 7 coming off an ATS loss and their last 4 home games against the number. Facing a team with a winning record the Rams are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5. Coming off a SU loss of 20 or more, they are 1-11 ATS. Overall in their last dozen games, Colorado State has covered just once.
    Alabama Crimson Tide –7 @ Arkansas Razorbacks
    Play On: Alabama as a medium road favourite playing an coming off a back to back ATS wins and SU wins of 20 or more points in 3 straight games against a SEC opponent with a losing ATS record.
    System Rate 94% 16-1 L17
    Other notable trends: The Tide are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. As a road favourite they have covered in 7 of the last 8. Recently they are 4-0 as a favourite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Alabama has covered the number in 10 of their last 14 games against conference opponents. Coming off a SU win of 20 or more points they have covered 9 of the past 12.
    Nevada Wolfpack -4 @ BYU Cougars
    Play On: Nevada coming off a SU win of 20 or more points where they rushed for 200+ yards and threw for 450+ points laying small points on the road against a team coming off back to back SU and ATS losses.
    System Rate 90% 18-2 L 20
    Other notable trends: BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs the WAC. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 0-4 at the window after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Wolfpack are on a 5-0 ATS run after scoring 40 points in their previous game and 6-0 in their last 6 coming off a SU win.
    Oregon Ducks -11.5 @ Arizona State Sun Devils
    Play Against: Arizona State as a big home dog coming off a ATS win playing a undefeated team with a winning ATS record coming off a SU win of more than 20 points in 3 straight games.
    System Rate 100% 9-0 L9
    Other notable trends: Oregon is 6-1 at the window in the last 7 after accumulating more than 450 yards in their last game. They are 20-6 in their last 26 as a double digit road favourite. After an ATS win the Ducks are 9-2 against the number in their last 11. Coming off a SU win Oregon is 11-4 ATS in their last 15. Against the Pac-10 Oregon has covered 8 of the last 11. The Sun Devils are 2-9 following an ATS win.
  • ackem19
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-07-09
    • 669

    #2
    Impressive. Any way to verify this info?
    Comment
    • bryce_bell
      SBR Rookie
      • 09-22-10
      • 37

      #3
      Originally posted by ackem19
      Impressive. Any way to verify this info?
      Yes. Watch it unfold all day long. Stats and records speak for themselves.
      Comment
      • ackem19
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-07-09
        • 669

        #4
        cool. Best of Luck.
        Comment
        • Cris_from_Europe
          SBR Sharp
          • 09-25-09
          • 343

          #5
          I'm already on Idaho -8 Nevada -4 and Oregon -11.5 .... good to see some one else likes these plays .... BOL
          Comment
          • chiliv5
            Restricted User
            • 02-16-10
            • 1273

            #6
            I am on Duke pretty big today..... can't wait to see how this unfolds.....
            Comment
            • Rookie-Capper
              SBR MVP
              • 03-21-09
              • 4567

              #7
              good luck
              Comment
              • brxbmbers42
                Restricted User
                • 07-26-10
                • 4312

                #8
                GL nice write up
                Comment
                • bruceBRUCEbruce
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-20-09
                  • 2560

                  #9
                  nice writeup. best of luck.
                  Comment
                  • jwbama23
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-17-10
                    • 2373

                    #10
                    bryce, glad to see you over at SBR. I recently saw some of your stuff at the other website.....very impressive capper
                    Comment
                    • btd
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 08-18-08
                      • 455

                      #11
                      First time reading your thread, impressive writeup, Thanx
                      Comment
                      • NEOHsports4life
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-13-09
                        • 1149

                        #12
                        With you on ARMY +6.5, Nevada -4, also on Virginia Tech/BC under 47.5, and North Carolina -3
                        Comment
                        • bryce_bell
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 09-22-10
                          • 37

                          #13
                          Thank you for the comments guys. Best of luck today, glad to be over here too.

                          Enjoy the games.
                          Comment
                          • NEOHsports4life
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-13-09
                            • 1149

                            #14
                            added BIG play -27 1st half OHIO STATE
                            Comment
                            • billysink
                              Restricted User
                              • 03-29-09
                              • 5172

                              #15
                              Originally posted by bryce_bell
                              Yes. Watch it unfold all day long. Stats and records speak for themselves.
                              Yes they do. And yours is very poor.
                              Comment
                              • BigdaddyQH
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-13-09
                                • 19530

                                #16
                                This is just an exercise in Technical capping, which tends to run about 50% successful during the season. This info can be found in numerous publications, most publshed by Mark Lawrence. The half point killed you in the Oregon game. 2-3. Not a real good start. You may want to tone it down a notch and dump the "Can't Miss" rhetoric. That just makes you sound like you are trying to play tout, and have no idea of what you are saying. The fact is that there are literally thousands of pieces of information like this out there. Let's take the Idaho-Colorado State game as an example. What you fail to mention is that Colorado State is 9-0 at home coming off a non-con game. Make that 10-0 now. Arizona State was 4-1 (now 5-1) as a Home Dog off a straight up loss. For every angle you can show me, I can show you an opposite angle. Technical 'Capping is part of a nutritious well balanced diet of wagering that also includes Fundamental and Situational "Capping. Technical Capping on it's own does not cut it, as these results show.
                                Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 09-26-10, 10:58 AM.
                                Comment
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