Dapper Capper's Week 4 Picks--Guaranteed Winning Week

**spongerat** · 09-23-10, 03:02 PM

guarentee? So you're saying you'll pay everyone back if you lose

**ACCBlitz** · 09-23-10, 03:29 PM

That's what it sounds like to me.....Gotta love posts with the word 'guaranteed' in it somewhere

**ManBearPig** · 09-23-10, 03:34 PM

I'd steer clear of that Houston play...losing 2 QB's and not having played since we can't possibly say how they will perform. Don't expect the same Houston team that scores with the best of them. They're playing a Freshmen QB with a quarter under his belt so I'd lean Tulane if anything.

**sweetpete57@** · 09-23-10, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

I'd steer clear of that Houston play...losing 2 QB's and not having played since we can't possibly say how they will perform. Don't expect the same Houston team that scores with the best of them. They're playing a Freshmen QB with a quarter under his belt so I'd lean Tulane if anything.

I'm starting to steer towards the under it that game. Yeah, Houston sucked @ UCLA, but Tulane is so bad that even an unproven Frosh should probably get them enough points to cover. Even still, Tulane may not score more than 10-14 points, which should make the Under an easy win

**sweetpete57@** · 09-23-10, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by spongerat

guarentee? So you're saying you'll pay everyone back if you lose

Yes. I will literally pay every persons gambling debts. I work on the honor system, so I'll trust people to send me accurate invoices.

**$Burm$** · 09-23-10, 04:31 PM

FADE USC....they have talent, but they wont cover, Lane Kiffin may be the worse coach in the NCAA

**sweetpete57@** · 09-23-10, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by $Burm$

FADE USC....they have talent, but they wont cover, Lane Kiffin may be the worse coach in the NCAA

Agreed about Kiffin, but I think Wazzu is probably the 4th or 5th best college football team in the state of Washington.

**fishmonger** · 09-23-10, 04:56 PM

UNLV -10.5 ??? How can an 0-3 team be a ten point fav?

**sweetpete57@** · 09-23-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by fishmonger

UNLV -10.5 ??? How can an 0-3 team be a ten point fav?

10.5 does seem a little high, but UNLV I think is better than their 0-3 record suggests, and New Mexico could be the worst team in the FBS. NM has lost their 3 games by a combined 180-31. I'll probably stay away from betting this one, but NMex is one of those teams like Wazzu and Tulane that are always good to bet against

**ACCBlitz** · 09-23-10, 06:01 PM

Agreed. UNLV is a lot better than that record shows.

**sweetpete57@** · 09-24-10, 09:00 AM

PICKS 2 & 3--TOTALS OF THE WEEK
TEMPLE/PENN ST. UNDER 43- (1 Unit)
Penn St.'s offense has been anything but impressive thus far scoring just 27 points vs. 2 FBS teams. Plus, they have Iowa on deck so it'll be easy for them to overlook temple. Penn St.'s defense on the other hand has been relatively solid, including a shutout last week. Temple is basically a running team, and Penn St. was dominant against Kent last week. An overmatched Temple offense against an underwhelming Penn St. offense spells a low scoring game. Penn St. wins 20-10.

TULANE/HOUSTON UNDER 57- (1 Unit)
Houston is down to their 3rd string QB, which as proven last week @ UCLA, means a less than stellar offensive show is in store regardless of who they play. This will be the Cougars first week with a new offensive scheme 'sans Keenum' so expect some speed bumps. Tulane is just a terrible team thats not worth analyzing. Theu were lucky to cover vs. Ole Miss, and don't have any offensive weapons to mention. The reality is, 8+ TDs need to be score for this game to go over, and Houston will not be the offensive powerhouse they were when Casey Keenum was behind center. Houston wins 34-13.

Sides to be posted in a few hours...

**hagball52** · 09-24-10, 10:02 AM

New Mex is really, really, REALLY bad. It's at UNLV and they are not that bad.

**sweetpete57@** · 09-24-10, 01:07 PM

I'm still up in the air on whether to bet on UNLV. I told myself that I should start betting against N. Mex and Wash St. every week and not ask questions, and should come out ahead by the end of the year.

**THE PROFIT** · 09-24-10, 01:22 PM

I know WashSt is fukin horrible, but Kiffin is 0-3 ATS so far because its impossible to cover the spread getting 6 points for every TD

**sweetpete57@** · 09-24-10, 02:12 PM

PICK #4
TEXAS -15.5 vs. UCLA (3 Units)
Obviously Texas has been less than explosive offensively this year, which would concern me, having to cover such a large number. But the reality is Texas has been fairly dominant on defense, and UCLA does not pose a threat offensively. QB Prince has 1 TD and 4 INTs against 3 teams with defenses inferior to Texas. I don't see UCLA scoring more than 7 points, which means Texas only needs to get their offense going enough to produce 24. I'll bet on that. Texas wins 27-7

PICK #5
S. CAROLINA +3 @ Auburn (3 Units)
Not sure how we're blessed to get a FG with the Gamecocks. Seems like this should be a pk. I'm not sold on Auburns offense. They were lucky to win vs Miss St. and Clemson, neither team a powerhouse by any means. S. Carolina has had a stout rush defense, and thats pretty much all Auburn can do--run. QB Garcia was a liability coming into the season for S.C., but he's proven to be a leader and there's no reason to think the dominant defense will falter to an inconsistent Auburn offense. S. Carolina wins 24-17.

**sweetpete57@** · 09-24-10, 02:53 PM

PICK #6
USC -22 @ Washington St. (2 Units)
USC hasn't been all that impressive thus far, but Wazzu is so terrible I just can't see this game being anything but a massacre. Hawaii couldn't stop USC, so the potential for an offensive outburst from the Trojans is very real. Wazzu was in the game early @ Okie St., and even led at HT @ SMU, but clearly this is not a 2nd half team. Expect Barkley to put on a show against a Defense that clearly can't stop an effective pass offense. USC wins 49-17

PICK #7
OREGON -11 @ Arizona St. (2 Units)
There is really no reason to bet against Oregon at this point. Their offense is simply unstoppable, whether playing on the home turf in Eugene, or the natural grass in a stadium with 90K fans cheering for the other team. Arizona St. played Wisconsin very tough, and may be better than most expected before the season started. With that said, Oregon is simply a team with total confidence, and has even been stellar on defense allowing only 13 points in 3 games. Oregon rolls 45-17.

PICK #8
FLORIDA ST. -20 vs. Wake Forest (2 Units)
Wake Forest has shown that they have absolutely no defense, whereas Florida St.'s offense is starting to click. The only question is how well Florida St.'s defense will play. Will the unit that shut down BYU in the 2nd half show up? Or the one that let OU tear them to shreds? Wake Forest has scored a lot of points in their 2 wins, but only scored 17 against a better Stanford defense LW. Possibility of a backdoor cover, but I'll take my chances. Florida St. wins 48-24.

PICK #9
OKLAHOMA -13.5 @ Cincy (2 Units)
Oklahoma has clearly been unpredictable this year. They blow out Florida St., but were lucky to hold off Air Force and Utah St. This is their first road game, but Cincinnati hasn't given us any reason to worry about OU's ability to blow them out. Cincy can't stop the pass, which opens the door for QB Jones to have a field day. The overrated Coach Stoops will hopefully have his defense better prepared, as they have caved in, in the 2nd half in their two close wins. Cincy has very little going for them on offense, so Oklahoma should cover easily. Oklahoma wins 34-7

PICK #10
UNLV -10.5 vs. New Mexico (1 Unit)
At this point, don't ask questions, just fade Los Lobos. They couldn't even win UNM dorm intramural flag football. UNLV wins 38-14

PICK #11
VA TECH ML @ B.College (-190) (1 Unit)
You've got to think that the Hokies have momentum going into conference play after that 2nd half vs. ECU. Though a BCS championship is out, the Hokies are still poised to win the ACC. Still, that 4 point spread against an always competitive BC team is risky, so I'll play it safe. VT wins 27-22.

This WILL be a winning week. Or so I hope. GL this week guys.

**sweetpete57@** · 09-25-10, 09:58 AM

Adding one more pick...
PICK #12
ARKANSAS +7 vs. Alabama (1 Unit)
Don't you just have that feeling that Arkansas is going to win this game? There's no reason to bet against 'Bama at this point, so this is literally a gut felling. Ryan Mallett is the real deal, and the way Arkansas didn't panic after blowing that lead to Georgia LW, shows that they are mature and focussed. Seven points is a lot in a huge game like this. Arkansas wins 28-27.