Small ML Bets, pretty square...

aca · 09-18-10, 11:23 AM

Good Luck to you too!

homerbush · 09-18-10, 11:30 AM

LSU will lose. I think oklahoma game will be closer than most people think. Never bet illini to win and wake forest stanford could be shootout so that might be close.

stefan084 · 09-18-10, 12:06 PM

florida st -10.5 is a good bet IMO--i see them rebounding well at home

Jadore · 09-18-10, 12:31 PM

Just to touch on my thinking for each of these games...

Oklahoma might be a close game, but AF can't pass the ball, and I don't think they can rush the ball any better than OK will against the AF defense. Can AF stop Landry Jones? Total of 53.5 means it should be a high scoring game...Just can't see AF putting up 28 points against an OK D that is primed to stop the run, and if it's my only loss of the day, I still finish up money...

PSU, Purdue and WVU up by 14+ already, so I'll skip those games...

Bama... I can't see Duke winning this game even 5% of the time, so I'd call it an Overlay...

Figured LSU would win this game at least 75% of the time, giving me a bit of an overlay... Miss St made it close at the end at home against Auburn but lost at home to a team about as good as LSU, now goes on the road to a place where they haven't won since 1991... Miss St averaged 3.7 YPA in the passing game against Auburn, and 3.5 YPR, now they are taking that O to Baton Rouge against a D that is ranked in top 5 in the nation... LSU loses, and Miles seat will get even hotter, and even if LSU and Illinois lose, if the other games win, I'm still up money...

Illinois is losing at this point, but my thinking was that N Illinois, the same as AF, is a one dimensional O, Ill has better athletes and a much deeper bench, and if Illinois can stuff N Ill at the point of attack, they should win...And if they can't, they need a new coaching staff...

Wake's O also seems one dimensional, and putting up gaudy stats against Presbyterian and Duke, both at home, isn't the same as going on the road against a well-coached team that shut down UCLA last week... Duke put up 48 points on the road against the Wake D, how many should we expect from a much better Stanford O at home... Don't think Stanford has a big letdown after UCLA game, but that is the only way I think Wake stays close...

Just my thoughts, and square plays like mine are why they can build those beautiful casinos...

J

Jadore · 09-18-10, 12:38 PM

I agree on FSU rebounding, have them in that other square bet, the 4 team parlay, along with WVU, Neb/Wash Under and ND...

Best of luck with that play

Jadore · 09-19-10, 01:37 PM

Nice 8-0 day... I know the bets were square, and could best be compared to derivatives, seemingly small risk for a small reward, with the chance of disaster given that upsets do occur, but I already know that I suck picking against the spread, so...

J