Dapper Capper's Week 3 Picks--Fade the ACC

[sweetpete57@]

12-12-1 (+1.92 Units)

Until further notice, the ACC should not be counted on to cover point spreads when playing games vs. other BCS conferences. Still unsure if there needs to be a playoff system? One of the teams in this conference is guaranteed a BCS Bowl game. What a joke.

Nothing really stands out as a 'big bet' type of selection. Saturdays games will be posted Friday afternoon Here we go....

PICK #1
CINCINNATI +1.5 @ N.C. State (1 Unit)
NCS Head COach O'Brien is much better of a coach than his record would suggest. He has the dynamic QB Wilson, but not much else to work with this year. Their road victory @ UCF last week apparently convinced linesmakers that they are worthy of being favorites vs. a top-notch Big East Team. Cincy fell apart offensively after an early lead at Fresno St., and was vulnerable through the air defensively. NC St. had trouble moving the ball @ UCF, and will face a tougher defense in Cincy. I expect a low scoring game, with Cincy's defense shutting down NC STs one-weapon offense. Cincy wins 17-10.

PICK #2
CALIFORNIA -2.5 @ Nevada (3 Units)
Two unstoppable offenses. Cal dismantled Colorado last week through the air and on the ground, while Nevada did the same vs. Colorado St. So, the linesmakers would suggest that this game would be a toss up, but I beg to differ. Cal is 22-1-1 all-time vs. Nevada. The Pac-10 is at a higher echelon than any WAC team not located in Boise. Nevada has a history of racking up wins with quality teams, but never being able to win the big games. They had 8 wins last year, but their best W was probably Fresno St. They've always lost the marquee game vs. Boise, and have had many problems vs. BCS schools. In fact they are 0-7 vs. BCS schools since 2007. Thats an important stat right there. Cal is loaded this year, and Nevada won't have the answers to keep Cal from running up the score. Cal wins 49-27



More Picks to come.....

[sweetpete57@]

These are my leans for Saturday, I'll narrow it down by Friday and try to throw in a couple FCS games. Any input would be appreciated.

Iowa St. +3.5
No. Ill +7
Ga. Tech +1.5
Florida St. -10 (potential 4*)
Nebraska -3
Air Force +17
Troy -3
Baylor +21.5 (potential 4*)
Mizzou -13.5
Okla. St. -7
Navy -3.5
Miss. St. +7.5
Utah -22 (no reason not to fade N. Mex. every game this year)
Houston -3 (Keenum situation pending)

[mstone897]

Fade the ACC? I was expecting to see an Auburn lean then haha.
Im with you on Cal, FSU, Air force, Neb, and Navy.
Lack of info on your other leans rather than disagreeing.

[sweetpete57@]

Clemson is the only ACC team i may lean towards. I'm not sold on Auburn. They won me money last week, but their 2nd half offensive slumber was concerning. I think Florida St. is the best net this week. They kicked BYU's ass last year, and BYU has taken a big drop off from last year

[sweetpete57@]

Cincy sucked, but I've got high hopes on Cal cashing in tonight, putting me in the black before Saturday starts. Studied the card one last time Thursday night, and now I'm ready to go.... (all picks -110 unless noted)

PICK #1
FLORIDA ST. -10 vs. BYU (5 Units)
Last year, Florida St. had a worse team than this year and BYU had a better team than this year, and the Seminoles went in to Provo and demolished the Mormons, and thus their chances of a BCS game. BYU looked awful @ AFA last week, and Florida St. is better than they played at Oklahoma. HC Fisher has some serious shoes to fill in Tallahassee and will have his team focussed and ready to rebound this week. Expect QB Ponder to bounce back with a huge day vs. a sketchy BYU defense. FSU wins 38-14.

PICK #2
BAYLOR +21.5 @ Tcu (4 Units)
WAY Too many points to give an in-state road team with a top-5 caliber QB. TCU's high-octane offense could very well have a field day vs. Baylor's defense that only returned 5 starters, but keep in mind that Baylor has only allowed 9 points so far this season (granted, against 2 crap teams) and will have lots of confidence going into this one. TCU may be the real deal, but they had lots of trouble with Oregon St., a team notorious for slow starts. I think QB Griffin makes a statement in this Nationally Televised game, but Baylor falls a little short. TCU wins 31-24.

PICK #3
WESTERN MICHIGAN -3 vs. Toledo (4 Units)
I hate placing big wagers on games in weak conferences, but W. Mich. is seriously undervalued right now. Picked by some to make the MAC Championship Game (whoopee), W. Mich is battle tested after their opener @ a Big 10 school, and they got confidence with an easy win vs. an FCS team last week. Toledo, though somehow pulling off a win @ Ohio LW, has been terrible on offense. The key angle here, is that W. Michigan has a strong pass attack, whereas that has been Toledo's achilles heel this year. WM has won the last four meetings as well. W. Mich wins 31-17

PICK #4
MISSISSIPPI St. +7.5 @ LSU (3 Units)
Just ass they proved to be the last couple of years, I think LSU is a little bit overrated again this year. They were lucky to catch UNC without most of their key players, and almost blew a big lead, and struggled at times vs. a very bad Vanderbilt team. Having a young QB playing his first away game in Baton Rouge worries me, but i think MSU HC Mullen has this team believing they can beat LSU, after staying very positive following the Auburn loss. Miss St. almost knocked off LSU last year, and this year pulls an upset 17-16.

PICK #5
OKLAHOMA ST. -7 (-105) vs. Tulsa (2 Units)
OSUs struggles with Troy give us line value here. Tulsa had high hopes going into Norman last year, and OU crushed them. OSU may not be as good, but clearly Tulsa is out of their elements when playing these top notch programs. Tulsa's defense improved last week vs. Bowling Green, but Oklahoma St. has proven in their first two games that their offense is just as good as it has been for years under HC Gundy, even with a bunch of newbies. OSU wins 45-31.

TOTALS of the WEEK
PICK #6
ALABAMA/DUKE UNDER 58.5 (1 Unit)
I look at it like this... Duke will not score more than 10 points. What they did on offense vs. WF last week will not carry over against the nations best defense. So, that just means that Alabama will need to be held under 48 points. And when they run the ball in the 2nd half and drain the clock, that shouldn't be too much to ask for. Bama wins 41-3.

PICK #7
UCONN/TEMPLE UNDER 48 (1 Unit)
Both teams are going to run the ball, and both teams have solid defenses. UConn's defense is much better than they played at Michigan, and Temple is always a smart UNDER play vs. rushing teams. Last time they played, UConn won 12-9. I think this one is similar. UConn wins 13-10.

FCS PICK of the WEEK
PICK #8
UMASS +29 (-115) @ Michigan (1 Unit)
UMass is #16 in the FCS, and have a very potent offensive attack. Michigan is due for a letdown after 2 high-profile wins. Simply put, 29 points is too big a spread to expect Michigan to cover against a team that can easily put up 20-25 this game. Or I could use a 2-word handicapping system here...'Appalachian State' Michigan wins 42-24.

I may have a couple more 1 unit plays tonight. If not, Good Luck everyone!

[sweetpete57@]

Wow, rough start to the weekend. Oh well, I love coming from behind. And kudos to Nevada. They may be the real deal, either that, or Cal was a one week wonder last week vs. Colorado. Anywho, I'm adding 2 picks to my card this week...

PICK #9
OLE MISS -12 vs. Vandy (2 Units)
Vandy is once again the doormat of the SEC. Ole Miss has been underwhelming both games so far, but its hard to believe Houston Nutt won't have his bunch playing inspired football in the conference opener against a pitiful Vanderbilt team. Ole Miss wins 31-7

Pick #10
ARKANSAS +3 (-120) @ Georgia (1 Unit)
Nothing about Georgia's offensive performance would make me think that they'll be able to rebound against Arkansas, who has the #4 defense in the FBS through the first two weeks. Ryan Mallett is quickly becoming a Heisman hopeful leading his offense to the #1 unit in the SEC. With Georgia's WR Green out again, Georgia doesn't have enough offensive weapons to keep pace with an explosive Ark. offense that will eventually put up some points in this game. And I've said it before, home advantage in the SEC is overrated. Arkansas wins 28-13.

[sweetpete57@]

Wow, Ole Miss sucks this year. start fading. Another FCS win for me (5-2 ytd), Arkansas covered easily, and snuck a W with the Under in Temple. Still down for the weekend, but things are looking up...