Wal's College Football Week #3

goallinebob · 09-12-10, 02:20 PM

God Luck Wal,,,,,,,

iwantcougars · 09-12-10, 02:31 PM

go get them this week

wal66 · 09-12-10, 02:55 PM

Note:

Just like I waited till Week #3 to start implimenting the program because I needed some current data, we should ease into these adjusted lines. Weeks #3 and #4 will be transitional and then Weeks #5- #10 we should see some very good advantages.

Joe_Shabadoo · 09-12-10, 07:53 PM

Wal, I appreciate your work.

Here's an alert if you're not already aware: Cal -1.5 @ UNR.

Holy. Fvcking. Science.

This looks like a trap.

wal66 · 09-12-10, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

Wal, I appreciate your work.

Here's an alert if you're not already aware: Cal -1.5 @ UNR.

Holy. Fvcking. Science.

This looks like a trap.

Yeah, GoldSheet had it opening at -1.5.

Won't have my work done till tomorrow but I have several spots that look soft this week. Course sometimes what looks obvious on the surface sometimes reveals some serious damage underneath.

itchypickle · 09-12-10, 09:29 PM

Can't wait to see the Over/Under in the Cal/Nevada game

kanak_attack · 09-13-10, 12:22 AM

why is hawaii giving 2 points on the road?

scarecrow717 · 09-13-10, 12:23 AM

week 3 picks

Wal,

Thanks so much for posting the program info. It helped me so much last year. I checked out the program in relation to the real lines for this week, and it looks like these are good plays/my leans:

Maryland +13.5
Temple +6.5
Kentucky -24
Western Kentucky +12
Hawaii +10

what do you think? can't wait to see your picks BOL

ji03 · 09-13-10, 07:32 AM

Like the Hawaii pick, they are playing well right now.

GoldenYAK · 09-13-10, 10:22 AM

Wal your the man. I followed ya two weeks so far and your making me some good $$. Thanks man . Lets get it again this week!

bigcat1 · 09-13-10, 10:34 AM

wal, always does well he made me some cash last year...Forget to mention super nice guy 2, Not got to follow as much this year. i usually wait till week 5 to start really watching his plays...

Tigers1230 · 09-13-10, 11:06 AM

I'm torn on the Kentucky game. Akron is horrible and should lose by 40 but...Kentucky has Florida next week. They might get up big and then lay off to rest up. Might just stay away. I like the Hawaii play!

kanak_attack · 09-13-10, 02:50 PM

hawaii play looks good also. they usually dont play good on the road. and you also have to keep in mind that they have a hard time plugging the run.

wal66 · 09-13-10, 05:34 PM

I was on Kentucky last weekend but as it was already mentioned here they do have Florida next week. I am still working on my plays but initial thoughts about the Akron/Kentucky game are that Kentucky is a very solid team against weaker competetion. I have been impressed with what I have seen thus far in them and expect them to lay waste when they have an opportunity to do so.

Certainly they are in a look ahead spot this week and no doubt they won't risk getting anyone hurt before the Florida game but on paper at least even if they were to pull some starters they could handle Akron.

I don't yet know if I am on Kentucky or not so don't read anything more into it than just off the top of my head.

I'm glad everyone enjoys the adjusted lines and I more glad that we are getting a little talk in this thread because of them.

jnickell100 · 09-13-10, 06:27 PM

Wal, i see that you see fresno-18 and they came out as -6 so im assuming you see a lot of value there. If so just wanted to let you know that Fresno plays horrible At Utah state. last time in logan, fresno needed a 63 yard fg as time expired. Fresno also also has a difficult time with mobile QBs.

Anyway just wanted to give you some info if you havent looked at it already. Im from Fresno, graduated there so i know quite a bit about their team. GL this season

wal66 · 09-13-10, 06:49 PM

Personally I like several plays this week that I am not on. I really like Alabama, Kentucky and Rice this week but am trying to show some discipline since this is the first week for the program. I only hope I have made a good decision on the games I am on.

If I have time I might try to do some write-ups but with everything that’s going I just don’t know if I will get around to it. Really though write-ups are mainly for those trying to convince others or yourself and I’m not doing either.

Plays:

NC State -2
Troy -4.5
Maryland +11
East Carolina +17
Hawaii +11
Fresno St -6

All plays are to win 1 unit.

wal66 · 09-13-10, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by jnickell100

Wal, i see that you see fresno-18 and they came out as -6 so im assuming you see a lot of value there. If so just wanted to let you know that Fresno plays horrible At Utah state. last time in logan, fresno needed a 63 yard fg as time expired. Fresno also also has a difficult time with mobile QBs.

Anyway just wanted to give you some info if you havent looked at it already. Im from Fresno, graduated there so i know quite a bit about their team. GL this season

I don't doubt a single word you said here and I have lost with them in the past on the road. My mind was made up before I saw your post and I only hope I don't regret the decision to post the play.

I appreciate and welcome your concerns even if I have them posted as a play though.

jnickell100 · 09-13-10, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I don't doubt a single word you said here and I have lost with them in the past on the road. My mind was made up before I saw your post and I only hope I don't regret the decision to post the play. I appreciate and welcome your concerns even if I have them posted as a play though.

I hope they beat the shit out of them. fresno looked great against Cincy but it was their pass game that did it on O. Usually Fresno has a great running game and mediocre passing. Anyways, GL on the upcoming season

rk9 · 09-13-10, 09:09 PM

Nice work on the picks before your system starts kicking out data. BOL this week

BOBBYW · 09-13-10, 10:21 PM

Thanx for the pix wal....love your style

jwbama23 · 09-14-10, 07:56 AM

Thanks Wal, I like your picks. How much do you like Cal? I really like this Cal team and what they have been doing and I see a huge win here. Am I off and just underestimating Nevada? I am already on Cal for 2x but thinking more maybe

pdx107 · 09-14-10, 08:06 AM

I think California is a great play...

Tigers1230 · 09-14-10, 08:07 AM

Like the ECU pick. I just put it in myself. Their D is not as good as it has been in years past but they have been throwing up some points so far. I think 17 is way too many to be laying for an overrated VT team.

naloboy · 09-14-10, 08:42 AM

take the big boyz iowa; boise; cal; hou; tcu.

wal66 · 09-14-10, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by jwbama23

Thanks Wal, I like your picks. How much do you like Cal? I really like this Cal team and what they have been doing and I see a huge win here. Am I off and just underestimating Nevada? I am already on Cal for 2x but thinking more maybe

JW, I like Cal but the opening line concerned me. It looks too easy and may very well be just that easy. I remember last year it seemed like there were some really soft lines during the week as well. I doubt this is the thinking but it almost looked as though the lines were too obvious during the week almost to give you a false sense of security on the weekends. Conspiracty? No, just looks funny sometimes but usually it's just what we do to ourselves.

I think this will likely be a high scoring affair but personally I like Cal 9-14 points better. It's not on my posted plays so this is just an opinion at best.

jwbama23 · 09-14-10, 10:13 AM

I agree, hey go check out my thread wal, I gave you some props in it. I think Cal wins this one by a couple TD's.

GoCougs! · 09-14-10, 10:57 AM

I like Cal a lot.
I also like SMU over Washington St. State barely beat Montana State last week at home, 23 - 22. Spread was -8, so WSU did not cover. I realize the spread is anywhere from 21 - 22.5, but this game should be 42 - 17...or so. WSU lost to Oklahoma State by a 65 - 17 score. Just food for thought.....

Love the thread!

hitman2010 · 09-14-10, 11:35 AM

get'em Wal. BOL this week.

jwbama23 · 09-14-10, 12:47 PM

Hey man, ECU line on sbr odds has gone to +19.5. What do you make of that?

wal66 · 09-14-10, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by jwbama23

Hey man, ECU line on sbr odds has gone to +19.5. What do you make of that?

When a line does something that doesn't make sense and it moves in an illogical way from how you/we are thinking it should move then it generally means one of two things; (1) a lot of people are thinking diferently or at the least the big money guys are thinking differently, (2) we're drinking the wrong Kool-aide.

Virginia Tech definately has their backs up against the wall here. I actually think V-Tech wins the game but the points based on their first 2 performances look too inviting. Maybe that's it though, they are too inviting.

Wish I could be more confident but I'm just not. I have fallen for the traps too many times in the past. My play is in though so I can't, well won't change it now. If you aren't down yet and the line doesn't start to come back, I would opt for a better game.

jwbama23 · 09-14-10, 02:15 PM

17.5 would of won the last 4 meetings for ECU against VT....ECU 2-0 ATS and SU this year. Va Tech in disarray. ECU New coach loads of energy .......im sticking with ECU. I was just curious as to why the line jumped so fast.

kanak_attack · 09-14-10, 03:58 PM

hawaii pick is lookin good.

Perfect Haze · 09-14-10, 05:58 PM

Hey Wally, is there any possibility that you can use your system to get some under / overs??

Try at least one time to see how it goes!

wal66 · 09-14-10, 06:15 PM

Haze, I tinkered around with scores to ultimately look at totals last year for the bowl games. It wasn't terrible but getting the proper perameters is essential. I have never been a big totals guy so pluggin in the proper data falls on my limited experience.

I will play around with it over the next couple of weeks and if it shows any promise I will add the predicted scores to the lines. Gimme a couple weeks though.