Wal's College Football Week #1

[wal66]

I need to say right off the bat that these plays are done solely on my own without the assistance of my program. As I have admitted many times my program relies on Sargin Ratings as an initial ingredient to set my baseline. I have other factors that are involved to get my actual lines but heavily influenced by Sargin and his ratings require games to have been played to amount to anything.

September 2, 2010
7:30 PM
Southern Mississippi @ South Carolina
South Carolina -14 total of 47

Right out of the gates I get to be a SEC homer. I can live with that label though when backing a team that I have already predicted to be the dark horse team in the SEC East this season. I like so many things about South Carolina this year; the ol’ Ball Coach is once again calling the plays, a veteran quarterback under center, a good cache of talented backs and a defense that is definitely stout. The only real concern and not one to be taken lightly will be the offensive line. If the Gamecocks have made any improvements on that line this team is for real.

I realize Southern Miss is expected to be much improved this year and that may very well be true but right out of the gates, at home with some serious weapons I’ll lay the points and feel confident even without my system up and running that I have a good investment here.

South Carolina -14

September 4, 2010
12:00 PM
Miami Ohio @ Florida
Florida -35

Gonna continue my homerism and double dip in it with my favorite team to boot. Florida has a history of opening the season with a seriously over-matched opponent. They always have super inflated lines in those games and I always pass on them in part because I don’t wanna get caught up in the hype and because I just hate playing such teams.

This time it’s different though. Yes they are still opening up with a weaker opponent, yes it is all about getting the hype going and feeding the boosters the blood they desire and yes they will get off to an easy win. There is something extra this year though, this year they have to set the minds of Gator Nation at ease that things are gonna be just fine without Tebow under center.

Florida is loaded, I’ll repeat for those a little hard of hearing, FLORIDA IS LOADED. The speed, the skill set and athletic talent is still here in spades.

Miami Ohio is a quality MAC team but they are up for a slaughter in the Swamp in a home opener. Speed kills and it also runs up the scoreboard.

Florida -35

September 4, 2010
7:30 PM
Northwestern @ Vanderbilt
Northwestern -4 total of 44.5

I really don’t have much to say about this game. I think Northwestern will have an impressive season this year and could very well cover the spread in this opener but I could just as easily see Vanderbilt hang around and keep it close to maybe pull it out.

If I had any confidence at all in Vandy’s offense I would be willing to take the points and play the home dog and maybe even look for the upset but I don’t. I do however think Vandy will continue to play aggressive, opportunistic defense and keep the scoreboard operator from being over worked.

Northwestern/Vanderbilt under 44.5

September 4, 2010
3:30 PM
UConn # Michigan
Michigan -3 total of 53.5

There may be some out there that feel Michigan is ready to be back. There may be some who feel as this is Rodriguez’s final season if it’s not a very good one. Either may be true or neither, I mean who really knows for sure.

I do think that UConn (yes I know they have been Connecticut for the past several years now) is a solid, fundamentally sound football team and have a real opportunity for the opening upset here.

I am not making this an official play yet as I am hoping that closer to gametime there will be more value or if the line moves against me then I’ll know I want no part of it anyway. So it’s just a heads up lean for now.

September 4, 2010
6:00 PM
Syracuse @ Akron
Syracuse -7.5

This is strictly a hunch situation. I won’t even get myself in trouble trying to give an opinion and have someone with actual knowledge an opportunity to debate it with me. I like Syracuse, nuff said but I’m still buying the hook just in case.

Syracuse -7 (-125)


September 4, 2010
12:20 PM
UL Lafayette @ Georgia
Georgia -27

I might be playing more SEC teams in the first week of the season this year than I did all of last year.

Speed, talent, coaching job maybe on the line this season and more speed, makes me like Georgia a whole bunch.

This game could bite me due to my lack of knowledge and research into learning enough about UL Lafayette’s potential but I’ll give it a go anyways.

Georgia -27

September 4, 2010
7:00 PM
Bowling Green @ Troy
Troy -14.5

Waiting to see a total for this game.

September 5, 2010
3:30 PM
SMU @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech -13

This is another game that attracted my attention but requires much deeper evaluation in order to make a play. I really like SMU plus the points here but not enough to make it official just yet.

Will watch the line and look much deeper into the numbers as time allows.



Official Plays:

South Carolina -14
Florida -35
Northwestern/Vanderbilt under 44.5
Syracuse -7 (-125)
Georgia -27

[tblues2005]

Thanks Wal for the early picks here. I hope they come through for you.

[saints7011]

BOL to you this season , heard good things about you...

[HoldEmHook!!]

Wal, "Its the most wonderful time of the year" merry Christmas my friend......The time is upon us, The conquest daunting, Line movement, leans, hunches, injuries, weather, Home or away, Dogs or Faves, I look forward to another football season with you! Best of luck in all you par-take in. Love the Gator pick.

[ackem19]

Welcome back Wal. Like the picks, did some research on Georgia and their new 3-4 style defense should give UL Lafayette a ton of problems. That is of course if they can have successfully adopted it. I would take SC but being it's a Thursday game and I'm still on the fence about it, I think I'l just leave it off. I'll be on Flordia too. GL and as always, I'll be looking forward to your write ups.

[rk9]

Like the picks Wal, I havent made any plays yet but your picks were some of my leans.

[wal66]

I appreciate the good vibes guys but I want everyone to totally understand.

Throughout my life I have been basically a 48% type of capper. Only in the previous 2 seasons and ONLY in college football have I hit over the 60% mark and ONLY due to my program.

These plays are my own selections. My program can't generate reliable lines until games have been played.

I like them or else I wouldn't post them but I rely on my program. Just a FYI alert about these plays.

[Cougar Bait]

Wally good to see you posting them here, 48% of Wally is better than 0

GL in week one, probably won't be on anything here, maybe...and I mean maybe Florida. Miami OH is just pure garbage.

[wal66]

Coug's anything is possible but I have been to practices in the past and the one's I have attended so far this season are amazing. I mean fast can only be so fast but I swear this team is so loaded with speed it's mind boggling. Naturally speed isn't everything and that is where it gets even beter. The defense looks so much sharper and players sticking with their assignments like I haven't for some time.

Brantley is on target and has serious arm strength and he's on target. Couple of recievers still have technique issues but overall the core is very solid. There will be a few questions on the offensive line once we get into conference play but early on should give them some gel time.

I hate laying a number like I am laying with Florida in most cases but in this spot Florida could touch off 50+ and i seriously doubt Miami manages more than a field goal or 2.

[fishmonger]

Nice to see you back posting. I look forward to seeing all of the college football posters at the bash. So we all can start talking shit to one another. God!! I love college football.

[Z_Wipf]

All favorites never looks good but that doesnt mean anything. Best of luck

[jwbama23]

Good luck Wal, I like the writeups. I think UF can pick the score against Miami Oh. They will probably win by 50. Gonna be sick.

[wal66]

All favorites never looks good but that doesnt mean anything. Best of luck

The very reason my life changed when I created my program. It is very keen at finding underdogs who cover and win outright. Left on my own I revert back to the old addage "they are favorites cause they are suposed to win" and have a very difficult time locating the live doggies.

[reverend]

I have not gotten into Saturday's games yet, but I am really like South Carolina with you. I just think playing on the road against an SEC foe is going to be to much, especially coupled with a veteran qb and some very good receivers

[TheBetBuysDanK]

good to see you back, wally. BOL in the opening week!

[Outhouse Tim]

Don't forget that dogs cover too. In fact, favorites get too much Joe Public in September and in November. All dogs are leading at the kickoff.

Good luck!

[ftballnutt]

Thank you for the picks/writeups.

[kboiler]

Thanks for the early pics wal, that Florida game scares me.

[redrum]

i like southern miss south carolina is not that good

[bigcat1]

i really really want to pic usc, but they have to win by 3 pos. and somiss returns the front 7 on defense, but the last two years usc has started me out in the black, last year with nc state i think, my decision will def be game time or a very small play. DEF COULD SEE SO MISS COVERING MAYBE BACK DOOR.....GOSH I LOVE COLLEGE FOOTBALL,

[wal66]

Don't forget that dogs cover too. In fact, favorites get too much Joe Public in September and in November. All dogs are leading at the kickoff.

Good luck!

Tim, while it may look like I've picked nothing but favorites that's because I selected primarily SEC games. If you look at the big picture with the number of games over the 5 days of opening week I really didn't pick that many favs at all.

LOL

Let's all have a great season, even if some of us have to play catch-up after the first week.

[odusmykal]

Wal, best of luck with your picks.. I'm on S.C. with you, but as a very small play.. S.C. seems to play up, or down to their competition.. Hopefully they'll come out strong in the first half.. As a homer, i will say that i agree with you on your concern with the O Line.. They still need a lot of improvement.. Also Spurrier has said Garcia & Connor Shaw will both play in the game.. Makes me wonder how much faith he has in our veteren QB.. He all but said yesterday that the starting position was still in the air between the two.. Not what i wanna hear a week before the game..
I also like the Vandy/Northwestern under.. Lets win some cash friend!!

[Wrecktangle]

mark this thread. BOL, Wally.

[Powerhaus]

I was taking a look at the SC game as well, team is loaded this year! GL

[M.W.]

Man, I love that Florida play, and it's great to have it backed up by insights from someone as knowledgeable as you. Thanks, and good luck.

[thebertshow]

miami ohio with all those points looks good should be a winner

[Wrecktangle]

Wal, have you checked your plays outside the model to see if you hold up any kind of decent win%?

thanks.

[wal66]

Wal, have you checked your plays outside the model to see if you hold up any kind of decent win%?

thanks.

In the past 2 years using my program 65% and 63% respectively and all college plays are documented right here and at Cappersmall in my threads, all previous years without my program I'm a 48%'er.

[wal66]

One win does not a season make but it beats the hell out of starting off with a loss.

[PeePee]

good start to the season.

[ronjon619]

Don't forget that dogs cover too. In fact, favorites get too much Joe Public in September and in November. All dogs are leading at the kickoff.

Good luck!

your sure about that?

[Rixsaw]

Have a great season man.

[lyon804]

Good luck again to your season Wal66. Enjoy reading your analysis.

[rk9]

Nice call on SC. i will be with you on the NW-Vandy under. Staying away from the big favs though.

[wal66]

Nice call on SC. i will be with you on the NW-Vandy under. Staying away from the big favs though.

Glad I got that under early. Looks like a lot got on the under as well. Goodluck to us anyways. I know Northwestern could go off but I am really looking for a 21-13 type game.