Week 1 CFB totals. Your thoughts?

[ackem19]

Here are some of my leans for week 1 totals:

So.miss/SC UNDER 48
Pur/ND OVER 52
UNC/LSU UNDER 39

Last year I just kind of tailed totals but this year,'i'm going to try my hand at capping them. Any thoughts?

[babyanni]

like purdue/nd over would stay away from that Unc total

[SoonerBS]

The first week of the season, I have always done well with the UNDERS. This is the week that the defenses crank up earlier than the offenses. It takes time for the offenses to start hitting their timing and all the skill players to truly hit their strides with the offense. I like to bet on strong defensive teams during this week.

This said, I am on two of the three you have listed and think they are solid bets.

[ackem19]

Thanks for the feedback and I appreciate you taking the time to review my threads. Get$.

[redrum]

i like the n.d over

[BigdaddyQH]

Neither Notre Dame nor Purdue has anything resembling a defense. I would lean over there. South Carolina is way too inconsistant formy liking, so I will pass on that game. LSU-UNC loooks like an obvious under, but so did Alabama-VA. Tech in that very same game last season, and that game went way over.

[THEGREAT30]

what do you have to cap off of?

[ackem19]

Just knowledge of the teams, styles of play, coaching, trends, strengths and weaknesses (from last years play), returning starters, and good ol' gut feelings.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

I focus most of my college football attention on playing totals. Last year I went 44-24 right here on this forum. I've been studying the week 1 lines and definitely see a few total plays that I really like. Unfortunately my plays will be on none of the games you've spotlighted. For what it's worth, here's how many points I have projected being scored in those games.....

South Carolina - 45 points
Notre Dame - 55 points
LSU - 31 points

The only play that I could consider (using my numbers) is.....the Under 38 in the LSU game. Two very good defenses here. Good luck. I will release my personal plays sometime around Tuesday of opening week.

Harry

[ackem19]

I appreciate the feedback. At the moment, I'm also leaning:

Army/E.Michigan UNDER 43

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Neither Notre Dame nor Purdue has anything resembling a defense. I would lean over there. South Carolina is way too inconsistant formy liking, so I will pass on that game. LSU-UNC loooks like an obvious under, but so did Alabama-VA. Tech in that very same game last season, and that game went way over.

Bob DiAco pulled off a nice performance in his only year with the Cincy defense last year, converting to an odd front. He has Parade All-Americans at almost every spot now, and has a RIDICULOUS amount of talent in the LB corps. I think the Notre Dame defense will be pretty good this year.

[SoonerBS]

Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 47 -- There have been two things that have been consistent about South Carolina's team under head coach Steve Spurrier the last 5 years -- low scoring offenses and good defenses. With 9 starters coming back off an offensive squad that averaged 20 ppg and 7 starters coming back off a defense that allowed only 20 ppg, I will always like South Carolina in a game as an UNDER play where the TOTAL is 45 or better. I know Fedora is suppose to be an offensive guru, but he has his work cut out for him this game playing against South Carolina's staunch defense with only 3 offensive starters returning off last year's team. Even worse in my book, they have only 1 offensive lineman returning. They do, however, have 9 returning starters coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Defenses come around quicker than offenses in the start of seasons.

North Carolina/LSU UNDER 40.5 -- Both of these teams have shown great defensive ability and only average offensive ability. I expect this game to be a defensive battle and apparently Vegas has figured on the same thing since the TOTAL is right at 40.

UAB/FAU UNDER 54.5 -- I think this is likely a game that is flying under everybody's radar both ATS and O/U. Here's why I like the UNDER here: UAB lost their best offensive producer for the last 3 to 4 years in former QB, Joe Webb. Webb did everything for this offense. While he is being replaced by a talented athlete in David Isabelle, the word is that Isabelle may not be the sharpest tool in the shed. We can expect this offense to struggle while Isabelle has his growing pains. FAU has a problem with personnel -- they bring back only 2 starters from last year's team and only 8 lettermen!! Defensively though, they bring back 9 starters and 21 lettermen. Again, we have the disastrous mixture of a new QB working with a totally new offensive line. This one looks to soar UNDER the 54 mark.

Kansas St/UCLA UNDER 43.5

Syracuse/Akron UNDER 43.5 -- Syracuse only returns 5 offensive starters from last season, but 10 defensive starters. Probably one of the key players that will be missed is their QB, Greg Paulus who graduated. New QB is not inexperienced as he got some playing time last season, but a plague of injuries has broken out on the team leaving them very thin at positions where they needed the experience. They have had some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, but so far they have reserved their starting line-up. Syracuse only averaged 21 ppg last season and I expect that to be even lower this season with their inexperience. Akron was not very good last season and they bring back 13 starters off their 3-9 team. They only averaged 19 ppg and their head coach, JD Brookhart was fired. This season they have a new HC and are learning new schemes. Last scrimmage report shows what usually happens this time of the year -- the defense is way ahead of the offense. I don't think either of these offenses are going to be lighting it up in game one. I like the UNDER.

These are the lines I got on these games, some several weeks ago.

[MasterP10]

SoonerBS- I agree with you on a couple games: FAU@UAB, with rusty and joe graduating to the nfl, no way the offence doesn't have some setbacks. I also don't think UAB should be a 13 pt fav either, they did blow fau out last time they met but UAB doesn't perform well in the fav role well usually not lol

Also like the cuse/zips under but was hoping for a 44>.

My fav under for wk 1 is the bg/troy game.

[SoonerBS]

SoonerBS- I agree with you on a couple games: FAU@UAB, with rusty and joe graduating to the nfl, no way the offence doesn't have some setbacks. I also don't think UAB should be a 13 pt fav either, they did blow fau out last time they met but UAB doesn't perform well in the fav role well usually not lol Also like the cuse/zips under but was hoping for a 44>. My fav under for wk 1 is the bg/troy game.

I'm looking at that game, too. I like the fact that you have some Key offensive players gone and they are both trying to rebuild on that side of the ball. However, they are also rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball on both teams, too. I'm trying to find out more info on how camp has been going for both of these teams, but info is hard to come by for these non-BCS schools like this.

[LT Profits]

I totally agree with the South Carolina UNDER

[officepoolguy]

Sooner great post...I agree with your under plays early in the season. Offense takes timing and if the team has a new qb or new oc, you can expect some growing pains. Love your under plays...I usually will play a couple of 2 team parlays using totals, which 2 would you parlay?

[TheBetBuysDanK]

BOL with those totals, ackem. the ND over and the SC under both sound good to me.

[SoonerBS]

Sooner great post...I agree with your under plays early in the season. Offense takes timing and if the team has a new qb or new oc, you can expect some growing pains. Love your under plays...I usually will play a couple of 2 team parlays using totals, which 2 would you parlay?

Right now I like the UAB/FAU and Syracuse/Akron UNDERS the best, but I will be playing them all equally myself.