Former Tout's Bowl Picks

**ritehook** · 12-19-07, 08:16 PM

Back around 15 years ago I was doing marketing, CR and PR (jack of all trades stuff) for a sports company, and would cap football as a hobby in the fall. Some people began betting my picks and stayed with it, recommending others.

So after maybe five years I was faxing (no email then, or if there were I didn't have it) out around 12 or 14 pick sheets each week.

And finally said, "Hell with this, let me charge a little to make it worth the extra work."

And I did. A few extra bucks, not a "business" tho. But around the century turn I did put some ads in the papers and mags, and built the clientele up to around 40. Still very small time.

My pitch was that the first year I would not charge a nickel, but would give everyone who joined my picks for free, asking only that on two specified teams a week they make for me a two-team parlay, and if it hit send me the proceeds (of, if I recall rightly, of a $40 bet)

Well, the unbelievable happened. I hit that two teamer the first ten weeks of the season! Altho I warned my subscribers that such results wouldn't continue, I could tell by the messages they were mailing me and leaving on my voice mail that many of them belived I would win forever.

(To be continued . . .)

EARLY BOWL GAMES

In the bowls, because I usually do well (tho that also is no guarantee for the future) I bet a bit more and am more liberal with unit play. IE, one star or unit - two stars is 1 1/2 x the one unit, and 3 stars twice the one unit.

POINSETTIA - Utah -7.5 * (one star = one unit)
While the new HC seems to have energized his players and the local San Diego retired and active sailors will provide a nice cheering section, I can't see how Navy defends here. Ute HC is 2-0 SU in bowls. I bought the hook.

NEW ORLEANS - Florida Atlantic -2.5 * Fla Atlantic is national co-leader in turnover margin. I sometimes don't like to bet a bowl team that beat a conferene rival as a big dog (Fla Atlantic beat Troy final game as 15 pt dog) as the "down" sometimes carries into the bowl. But HC Schellenberer is 4-0 in bowls, and back in the day took Miami to a national championship.
(No, I don't know if Howard has a drinking problem)

NEW MEXICO - New Mexico -2.5 * Hard to go against a team that has a bowl named after them. (Just jesting) And I'm aware that HC Long is 0-4 SU in bowls, including some played also in Albuquerque.

But Nevada's Ault isn't much better postseason (1-3). Nor am I concened that their best RB is out. Good RBs in college ball are a dime a dozen. Tell me Tebow is out of the Florida game and I'll start to worry. Or that two or more top defensive players are MIA, that's trouble. But RBs - nah, unless it's Barry Sanders they can be replaced . . .

Fifth time the charm for Rocky, one time UCLA defensive co-ordinator.

LAS VEGAS - BYU -5 *** Yeah, three stars. I like betting against lame duck or late hire HCs. The Mtn West ain't the Pac 10, but UCLA was a big disappointment this season (Lost to the ladies of Notre Dame) and it's not likely to get better with Dorrell canned. The Afr-American Bruin players may think "racism" did Dorrell in.

I'm going with the Mormons. And reminded of old HC Lavell Edwards funny comment that BYU fans come to a bowl game with two things: "The Ten Commandants and a hundred dollar bill. And they don't break either one."

HAWAII - Boise State - 10.5 ** Strange not to see the Rainbows in this bowl. ECU is a comedown for BSU, but i don't see them letting down. They are in the top 25 in almost every defensive category, and CUSA isn't really superior to the WAC.

Also: the Pirates, many of them, have likely never been to beautiful, warm Honolulu, so much to see and eat. But the Broncos go there every two years, and in fact were there
e last month, when they lost by only 12 to hgh-powered undefeated Hawaii.

Can't see ECU (ranked 71 in total offense) doing much against the boys from Boise. I also purchased the half in this game.

MOTOR CITY - Central Michigan +8 * I like it when a team finishes its regular season strong, and CMU won five straight to close out against conference foes. Purdue on the other hand lost their last three. Yeah, I know, to Big 10 foes,not Macsters, but losing is losing.

I had Cent Mich as only 5 pt dogs, so the 8 looks pretty fat to me. Purdue HC Tiller is only 3-7 SU in bowl games.

HOLIDAY - Arizona State +2.5 (and it may be at 3 some places, I bought the half tho to get it there), as I have made the Sun Devils a *** play.

Agreed that Texas HC Mack Brown knows how to prepare for a bowl. But my numbers, and other online rating sites I checked, tell me that ASU should actually be a 3 pt or so fave here.

I like Az State's D - not that great in stopping the run, but very good at defending the pass. And, Devils can toss the rock, too - ranked 11 in Pass Efficiency, a more telling stat than mere Pass Offense. And the Horns rank 72 in Pass Eff Defense.

One thing that gave me pause was whether, after losing only two games this season, Az State may be in a negative mood that they didn't even get a BCS bowl. But you can't have everything, and I'm hoping that plenty of Sun Devil fans take the four hour drive west on I-8 to hoot and holler for their team in Mission Valley.

Well, the Holiday Bowl takes us a couple of days past Christmas, so I'll take a break and maybe be back on the weekend with more. I don't have as many plays (!!!) in the Jan bowl games as I have earlier. But still a few 3 star jobs to come, but I may have time to give them only a capella, without the commentary. And of course to finish my story of My Life as a Small Time Tout.

**hhsilver** · 12-19-07, 09:16 PM

Thanks for sharing - both your picks and your life. I like your writing style.

**ritehook** · 12-19-07, 09:27 PM

Muchas gracias. And good luck in the bowls.

**OrionSky** · 12-20-07, 04:28 AM

Great write ups and picks. Thank you for sharing and best of luck! Looking forward to the continuation.

**ritehook** · 12-20-07, 08:01 PM

Many thanks. I'll try to finish Fri or Sat. Christmas season is Crazy season.

South Jersey. There are two New Jerseys (I was born and raised there, Hudson Co), the North and the South. But the coastal South now is likely more like the North, with all the transplants fleeing Newark and other True Adventure metropolises. (Ony JJ Gold remains a Newark faithful - but prob lives in Ironbound or North Newark, small outposts of civilization.)

Real South Jersey is over by Philly, east and west of that Newark clone (but a much more interesting city than Newark).
South Jersey should secede, the people and culture there are completely different from the rest of the state, Even talk different, you'd think you were in West Virginia.

I like NJ, in a way. I still get my Internet and long distance gratis from a NJ centered company, where a relative ranks high in the communications company that supplies it.

NJ and Southern California have something in common - both were the highest flyers in the land during the recent but now dead real estate and home buying mania. Esp the coastal areas.

Both are now dead, SoCal maybe more than Jersey.

Another interesting fact about Jersey: it consistently ranks among the lowest retail gas prices of all the 50 states. A lot of polluting refineries, and a surprisingly low gas tax. (The new Demo governor should fix that real soon.)

Also, of all the states that have "New" in their title, only NJ is usually called familiarly by its second name (as I've done in this rant). Think someone from a certain New England state is going to say he's from "Hampshire?" Or where Albuquerque is, "Yeah, I'm from Mexico." (Come to think of it, with the pourous border, maybe they do say that now along the Rio Grande . . . .)

**OrionSky** · 12-21-07, 02:21 AM

I agree ritehook. If you were from Jersey, you always say you were from South Jersey or North Jersey. I'm about 10 minutes from Fort Dix in the country, so it still looks like South. All the chemical plants and refineries up north, plus about 10k in property taxes....not for me. I use to live up north, but when looking at houses to buy, you can't beat the prices down south. It's true about it being so different North and South. Nice to meet you ritehook.

**ritehook** · 12-21-07, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by OrionSky

I agree ritehook. If you were from Jersey, you always say you were from South Jersey or North Jersey. I'm about 10 minutes from Fort Dix in the country, so it still looks like South. All the chemical plants and refineries up north, plus about 10k in property taxes....not for me. I use to live up north, but when looking at houses to buy, you can't beat the prices down south. It's true about it being so different North and South. Nice to meet you ritehook.

Yeah, you're in the Pinelands, fascinating place. Years ago National Geographic did a big color photo spread on it. Some people live there all their lives - a different species. And they never say "Joisey." (Neither did I or anyone else I knew from No. Jersey. People confuse Jersey with the Williamsburg - or "Williamsboig" - section of Brooklyn)

My relatives tell me a lot of people are leaving Jersey, due mainly to the high property taxes; going south to places like the Carolinas, etc. If you aren't rich or don't work for the state govt NJ is a tough place to live --- I left years ago for the West Coast. And when I visit Jersey I'm always amazed at how bad the roads are in what is reputed to be the richest (re per capita income) state in the nation. Rt 70, for one example, should have been six-laned and freewayed years ago.

**ritehook** · 12-21-07, 04:42 PM

Friday, Dec 21. I have a little block of time, let me do a few more of my selections in the bowls.

Not too auspicious to start off 0-1, and watch Utah snatch pointspread defeat from the jaws of victory, in the final minute with what was almost a Hail Mary pass.

I'll let the Navy backers howl, though the game could have went either way, and howling unless your team covered by at least 2 TDs is classless. I rarely crow, as I know from long experience that those who do so inevitably end up eating same.

Two things very tough to analyze in bowl games are player emotions (they're huge with young college kids) and how much the layoff from end of season to bowl game negatively affects a team.

It is true that the service academies generally are not as affected by layoffs or ups and down (and hope that holds also with Air Force, a nice bet for me a week or so hence), and it's obviously from Utah's slow start that they were.

All in the game. Just an observation, not a bawling session.

And, the emotion factor. It can be huge. For years, before BCS raised its ugly head, teams like UCLA and USC,if they didn't snag the big prize, the Rose Bowl, would bring merely their C game to whatever punky little bowl they were invited to.

It's very common, Every year a few teams are pissed that thet didn't get a better bowl. A few years ago Oregon believed that that they should have had a BCS invite, instead of the bowl they got, the HOliday if I recall rightly. Belotti was convinced that Texas' Mack Brown lobbied the NCAA to give him the BCS bid. And Oregon, as faves lost SU. To Oklahoma, I think.

There two emotional and physical problems would take care of themselves with a playoff system, starting the second Sat in December. Everyone in the playoffs would be up for them, just like in the NCAA hoops tournament in March.

But NCAA will not change for years, if they ever do, so I'll leave that topic alone. I don't have all that much time.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL - Boston College -3.5 *** That's two 3 unit plays in a row, AZ State in the Holiday, Generally I wouldn't wager this much on a coach getting his first bowl evev, but Jeff Jag didn't miss a beat, winning the same number of games that OBrien did the year before.

Michigan St can score, that's waht new HC Dantonio brought here last year. And they'll have to do it mainly thru the air, as BC is Numero Uno in Div 1A vs the rush. And they rank a respectable #33 on Pass Efficiency Defense.

It's true that BC's defense wore down late in the season, surrendering 42 pts to Maryland and 30 to a super Va Tech team in the ACC championship game.

But, this is a case where the rest may well benefit the Eagles, and get the formerly good defense back to where it was season start.

Additionally, pro prospect senior Qb Matt Ryan will want to demostrate his wares to the NFL - he was in the running for the Heisman for awhile.

Finally, let's face it, the Big Ten is no longer a super conference. Sure, I do favor slighly (not enough to bet the game, except maybe a small beer money bet) Ohio St in the championship, but the league in not terrific. I think 9 teams out of 11 were technically bowl eligible, meaning they were beating up on each other.

Let's see what MSU can do against a fine ACC team, with a hopefully recovered defense. My bet is "not that much." Tho, as usual when serious money is at stake, I did purchase the half point.

TEXAS BOWL - TCU -4 * Game is in Houston, and it's hard to bet against any team in their home town, with a lot of screaming homer fans.

But while the Frogs didn't win the Mtn West as some expected, they do have a super D, and that should be enough to cover the spot here.

Here's some of their NCAA stats for the '07 season: Pass Efficiecy Defense, ranked # 9 -------Rush Defense, # 18 ----Score Defense, # 16 -----and Total Defense also # 16.

Far-flung CUSA (from the coal-filled hills of West Virginia to the bayous of Louisiana) is of lesser quality than the Mt West (IMHO) so that should pose no problem.

And finally, now that Houston's HC Art Briles has departed for greener pastures (as in long green) and an "interim coach" will guide the Cougs in this bowl (while at the same time sending out his resumes for next year) I gotta take the Horned Frogs. Hostile stadium, sure, but worth a one unit bet anyway.

**ritehook** · 12-21-07, 05:12 PM

Time to do one more, and try to be back tonite or tomorrow with the rest. By my count I have 25 plays total in the bowls.

Gee, I hope I don't go 0-25 ATS. I'd have to leave this forum, then. Can't hang around as everyone then would say whenver I expressed an opinion, on sports or whatever, "Hey, that's the guy who went zip for 25 in the '07 postseason."

MEINEKE Connecticut +2.5 * BTW, I like Meineke. Most franchises are honest, not a quality one generally attributes to a auto repair shop. While I have my fave mechanic in Mexico, super good and very honest, for under the car work Meineke is a good choice.

So too, I think, is UConn, at least for a single unit.You do have to respect Wake, and the terrific job Jim Grobe has done there. However, I do think Uconn should be getting another point or pt and a half, and that alone makes it a small single star play for me,

Wake is ranked in the 70s in Rushing Offense, so it looks like they will mainly try to heave the rock vs the Huskies. But Uconn snagged a season-long rating of number 8 in Pass Eff Defense, so good luck to them there. This looks like a low-scoring game, where it's a small plus to have the dog. You can buy up to +3, or wait it out till it gets there. At some shops it's at +2.5 -105, and I think I even saw one place where it's at +100, even money. Check the SBR Live Odds.

Back when I'm able with the rest. If Fla Atlantic doesn't come through tonite I'll be a nasty 0-2, even tho on the one unit jobs. C'mon, Howard, put down the bottle and get your kids riled up!

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 01:02 AM

Ok, Howard must have given a rousing speech to his team at halftime, screaming at them to win one for Lord Calvert. And sure enough in the second half they magically plugged the holes in their swiss cheese defense and came out to play.

Nice too that ol' Howard (only seven years younger than Paterno) gave some of the backups the ball in the waning moments, ater the game and spread win was in the bag.

So I win a game. Nice, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn occasionally.

Let me knock off one or two more and come back manana or Sun with the rest.

Hmmm, let's see, where am I? Just a sec.

Ok, excuse me, like ol' Howard I've been nipping at the eggnog tonight, and am drifting a bit. But no fear, all the picks were made earlier this week, and the week before. When I was sober at the judge who sentences Paris, Britney, Lindsay, et al.

Did the Meineke, now up to Liberty. (And no, I don't have a pick in every game, just most of 'em)

LIBERTY - Central Florida -3 ** While I ain't tremendously impressed with Conf USA, of which the Knights are a part, I always respect winning, of which UCF did this season, going 10-3 SU and a nifty 8-5 ATS.

Miss St (I ain't a gonna write out the full name of that state) justified the hire of Sy Croom four years ago, a defensive specialist. He won 7 games.

I am always a bit suspicious of a team that has a big turnaround year to year, and UCF won only four games last year. I figure they may be just happy to get into a bowl after that kind of dismal season, and they don't have to win it.

But the Bulldogs also crapped out in '06, winning only 3. So it's a wash.

UCF HC O'Leary can coach, and I gotta believe right now that Notre Dame is sorry they didn't just overlook his fudging on his resume (hey, haven't we all done that once or twice in our careers - I mean, I've told some big whoppers on those stupid sheets) and hired the guy, and maybe averted the meltdown esperienced by Tyrone and Charlie.

You have to judge all stats in both an objective and subjective manner. The key to me here is that the Knights were ranked 9th in the nation in rushing offense. And while the long bomb is much more exciting, the team that can run ususally has a big edge, as they ground out the yards and wear down their opponent.

Now it is true that the Bulldogs play in the tough SEC, and own quality wins over 'Bama, Auburn and Kentucky. But in Rush Defense they ranked only # 65. Ok, move them to CUSA and they would move up to maybe 30, but still probably not good enough to grab a win here.

The number at some books is, like, -3 -105, so even if you don't play at a reduced juice book, you may be able to snag nickel rather than dime juice. Or you can take a chance and see if the number drops to 2.5.

I gotta pee, be back later with one more.

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 01:39 AM

One more for this evening, then beddy-bye.

ALAMO - Penn State - 5.5 ** I know it looks like I'm mainly going with chalk, but in fact my preference is to bet dogs,as I believe you have a long-term edge doing so. (My God, esp this season in college foots!) But I won't force a bet 'cuase it's not a dog, I have to bet 'em as I see 'em.

Nittany Lions must travel down to Texas to play, but State College fans seem to travel well, so they'll have a good rooting section in the Alamodome.

Here's what you can melt this down to: rush offense vs rush defense. And the latter will best the former almost every time.
Yes, it can be ignored if one team has an outstanding QB, or an RB of the decade, but that's not really the case with t he Aggies.

Penn State doesn't have a great O, and the QB who was ballyhooes to the skies when in HS didn't pan out that hot. But they do have the D, and especially the Rush D, and that's where the rubber meets the road.

Tesas A&M is a running team (# 13 final season ranking). They must get that going to have a chance. I don't think the 6th ranked Rush Defense Lions will let them do much of that.

And, you give The Octogenarian over a month to prepare for a game and he's deadly. Get this: Joe is 20-10-1 SU in the postseason in his illustrious career. (And fug those talking heads who each year call for him to retire - his brain still works fine, let him retire when he wants to, when he's 100 if that's to be the case.)

Texas's A&M head coach? I don't know, last I heard that with Dennis finally gone one of those infamous "interim" guys has taken over. Even if they made a permanent hire (as Houston did, I missed it) that kind of uncertaintly more often than not discombobulates (anyone know the etymology of that Jersey and New York word) a team.

By the way, on this college forum Bear (Bearmz I think) provides a wealth of data and news about the bowl teams, interesting and helpful reading for the handicapper and casual fan alike.

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 09:28 AM

Back Sat morning with some more picks. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Cripes, I used to get paid for doing this! Ah well, storing up my rewards in Handicapper Heaven.

INDEPENDENCE: Colorado +3.5 * This just squeezed into a one unit play frame, as I have the Buffs as only legit 2 pt dogs.

Both teams also just barely squeezed into the postseason, both going 6-6 Straight Up. But at least Colorado also went 6-6 ATS, while Bama was only 2-7-2 in that dept.

Biggest Buffalo win was a 3pt victory over visiting Oklahoma, as 1 23 pt underdog. They also beat Texas Tech, and lost by only 5 to Kansas

Tide hung one on Arkansas, also Tenn, and played Georgia, LSU and Auburn tight, so they're not chopped liver. And the game is being played in the Shreveport, not all that far from the state of Alabama.

One tout, Spreitzer of the Feist family, thinks that the southern teams are going to romp over the more northerly-based teams this bowl season. Ah, maybe, but I'll go with my numbers here for a smallish one unit play.

Let me post this and come back with the aptly name Armed Forces Bowl.

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 10:09 AM

ARMED FORCES BOWL - Air Force +3.5 ** Damn, could have gotten this at the open bell at +6. But I'll take the 3 1/2 for two units.

Knowing how a team will play after the long layoff between end of season and bowl game is invaluable knowledge, and one that's very hard to come by, lacking a videocam in the locker room.

But as one poster noted on another thread, the service academies have solid bowl records. These guys are military, and discipline and blocking out distraction are part of their daily student lives. So I'm expecting the Falcons to be ready to fly. (AF has a falcon mascot, they let him loose to buzz the stadium at half-time, or at least used to)

That in itself is a big plus. Additionally, they won SU six of their last seven games, the loss being a narrow 3 pt road defeat at New Mexico.

Cal had a different kind of second half of the season. After starting off with a resounding "revenge game" win at home vs Tenn, they won their next four, and then lost by a FG at home vs Oregon St.

That seemed to have deflated them (tho there may also have been some key injuries). They then proceeded to lose five of their final six games. Even lost to Bay Area rival Stanford.

Looks like they've given up on their season, and likely would not prefer to be in something called the "Armed Forces Bowl," in Ft Worth, fergodssake! If they can't be in Pasadena, will they leave their "A" game in Berkeley?

Neither team is a defensive paragon. But Air Force, as may be properly guessed, rank number two in the land in rushing offense (behind Navy), grinding out almost 300 yds per game.

The rush defense that will be asked to stop this option attack is ranked 58th in that dept. Yes, I understand the diff between the Pac 10 and the Mtn West, but facts are facts, and the Pac 10 does not see too much of the option, and films are no substitute for playing against it.

Falcs had a nice season under Calhoun, going 9-3 SU and a great 9-2 record ATS. The Bears were only 6-6 SU,and a dismal 3-9 ATS.

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 10:23 AM

SUN - Oregon +6.5 * Worth a unit, and barely. I'm never thrilled at a team that finishes with 3 straight SU and ATS losses, as did the Ducks. But it is true that they sometimes bounce back and win their bowl.

And it is also true that 4 games back they stuck Arizona State with one of their two losses.

So Florida should be favored here, but maybe not by the 6 1/2

I know that start of season Oregon had higher hopes than being in El Paso on New Years Eve, agaisnt a tough, hard-hitting defense that ended their own season on a roll. (Of course, S. Fla also had hopes midseason for something better than this dismal border town --- oh, sorry El Pasoites, I never spent that much time in your town, usually just used it as a jump off spot to party in Juarez.)

Getting this many points, tho, makes it hard not to put a smallish one unit on the backs of the Ducks, and hope like water it doesn't roll off and down the drain.

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 11:04 AM

I'm passing on any sides bets in the next three bowls, tho I do have a 2 unit wager on the total in the Insight Bowl, see my original post for that.

In the Humanitarian up in Idaho I would normally have a bet on Ga Tech, but the last I'd heard they have an Interim Head Coach doing the game, and he departs after it's over. Yeah, bet he's really excited about freezing his butt off in Boise, for a final paycheck.

Still, I'd probably bet G Tech were it not for that. I did put Fresno in my Bowl teaser, but I'll pass any straight bets here.

I did intiially give a small edge to Florida St over Kentucky in the Music City, but you can't - or I can't anyway - wager on a team that has so many suspesions. Bobby Bowden is likely coming to the end of his long reign in Tallahassee (alumni are getting very restless, they want Fisher to take over), leaving only Paterno as the Grand Old Man of college football.

OK, to the last bowl of this year, the Chick Fil A. But first, a word from our sponsors.

Uh, no, just the end of my adventures in the Touting Trade.

No matter how much i tried to cool down the inflamed imaginations of my clients after starting out winning each of my weekly two team parlays for the first ten weeks, there was no stopping them.

It was a little like the unrealistic euphoria we saw last year at start of the NFL season among the Rx gang, waiting breathlessly for the posts of Ace-Ace, before he went into the tank. One guy there even said he was financing his daughter's college education with the winnings he hoped to earn following AAs picks. Cripes, that's heavy stuff. (And BTW, how is Ace Ace doing this season? - I rarely hit that site, afraid that Wil the Shill will reach out from my screen to grab my wallet.)

Well, I did finally lose some of the parlays, but overall it was a great winning season, everyone made money at the book's expense.

The next season, tho, I didn't do as good, "bouuce" or cycles being what they are. And when you fail just one year, the same bettors who were throwing roses at your footsteps are now preparing the hangman's rope. I saw how bitterly Mr Ace was attacked last year after dumping it.

A tout can retain a lot of his clientele if he's willing to lie like a rug. Give excuse after excuse, and promise a return to fabulous winning ways if only his "people" will stick with him.

I decided not to. All that bullsh-tting. Not that I'm an angel, I spent a lot of time in direct sales. But touting, if you're in it to make money, is a business. And to succeed you must put more time into the day to day biz aspects of it than you do into the time it requires to properly consider, ressearch and handicap the games.

Which is why all touts, or almost all, must eventually end up lying, or at least hiding key facts from clients. Voltaire once said that if God did not exist it would be necessary to invent him. Well, if touts did not exist the desperate bettors would invent them, materialize them into reality, to shell out thier money.

Some of the tout clients are very accomplished in their own fields. But be they corporate raiders, brain surgeons, research scientists or successful businessmen, when they put their betting caps on they miraculously turn into nimcompoops. And red meat for the cheating touts (almost a redundancy).

Take the case of Kevin O'Neill. I don't know if he is still operating (out of Atlanta) but it shows how the tout biz turns an honest guy into a bared-teeth shark.

Kevin wrote, back in the 90s, a couple of good books on handicapping football. In them, he mocked the lying touts,and all their cheap carny tricks. ("Since October 10 we're 12-2 ATS in the ACC and Big 10!" that kind of garbage)

Then, he went into the tout biz, full time. He gave a season's worth of picks away free the firsst year. Then he started charging a fee. And still had another good year.

The third year, as I understand it (just from hearing him on some tout radio shows) the roof fell in. So he started using the same tricks he had scorned in his books. ("We're 7-1 since Sept 26 with all our home dogs!") (Or "Our late,late, late telephone service is hot as a pistol!")

The last I'd heard, he was actually running a School for Touts, an advanced course in how to gull one customers, keep them from leaving after the inevitable bad year -- all the cool tricks that Kevin himself must have learned with his venture as a full-time tout. And, as noted, which he had snorted at when he was a mere author.

A School for Touts . . . . sounds like something out of a Dickens novel.

In addition to the football, and March Madness, I had also been running a 900 horse racing number, in partnership with a thoroughbred horse trainer of my acquaintance. And it was all getting to me. So after a few years I pulled the plug.

However, if I can somehow wangle a scholarship to that School for Touts . . .

**ritehook** · 12-22-07, 11:23 AM

CHIK FIL A Clemson -2.5 *** I know I should give an extensive write-up for a 3 unit play, but I have other things to do at the moment. Maybe later today or tonight, or Sunday.

I actually have only three more bowl games I'm betting into, other than the ones for Totals I've already given.

I did want to end this with the last New Year's Eve bowl. So remember, after watching this game and hopefully collecting, go out and get falling-down drunk, or with whatever your "substance" of choice is.

For me, I spend it quietly at home, watching football, maybe sipping a bit of fine port wine and smoking a geniune Cuban cigar.

Because NY Eve is amateur night.

**4FUN.AND$$** · 12-22-07, 04:50 PM

Thanks for all the write ups ritehook. Good info

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 12:31 PM

Damn. And double damn. Won the one unit play easily, with New Mexico, but couldn't cover with BYU on the 3 star play.

(Which, by the way, I mispoke a few times in calling a 3 star play a 3 unit play. As I'd said at the start, a 2 star play is 1.5 units, and a 3 star is 2 unit.

There's really no play that, in my view, is worth 3 x more than any other worth reaching into your wallet for. During the season I grade down from one unit 30 % to a basic bet, and up the same percent to a "best bet". Only maybe 6-8 times a season will I feel confident enough about a wager to actually double it. And never ever to triple it. Just ain't no "locks," except on your doors and the Panama Canal.}

UCLA's defense did not appeared troubled by the coaching woes, and kept the Bruiins in the game. A key BYU turnover cooked the cover.

Football is a very unforgiving game, as it moves at such a slow pace (unlike basketball). In alsmot 3 1/2 hours for a college game you get one hour of action, and even some of that is burned up by the QB countdown,

And so, mistakes, turnovers, are hard to overcome, esp in a defensive struggle.

Hoops, on the contrary, is a high-velocity game. It moves so fast that there is plenty of time for a superior team to overcome the errors, like turnovers.

Ah well, my first one star play lost, my first three star play lost, so if that trend continues I uess my firsst two star play will lose, ie, Boise State tonite. Hope not.

New Mexico won easily. Despite missing the top RB. The sub, if I recall, had over 160 yards and averaged over 7 a carry.

If you are not a handicapper burning the midnite oil, but want to get yourself some solid plays and likely do as well as the 'cappers, try this:

Check in both the college and NFL when the first team RB is out. We live in such a star-struck land, completely "American Idolized," with ESPN and sports radio constantly highlighting the "star" players, that the betting masses overreact, and will bet the other team if the big guy is out.

At least do this with all RBs not mentioned much in Heisman chase. The backups, with a chance to shine, will more often than not do just as well, sometimes better, than the starter.

Running the ball is such an instinctive thing, it's the reason that rookies in the NFL and redshirt frosh in college can make headlines. You can do it or you can't.

Other positions, offensive line for instance, or defensive back, are "head" positions, you have to learn a lot of stuff to do it right.

EVen QB,at least in college, is worth a bet sometimes when the starter goes down. At least when the big cheese QB is not in the Heisman running, ie not one of the 5 best in the land. (And even so, the odds will be adjusted to reflect his absence)

Last season, as just one of many examples I could cite, the Wake Forest very good QB starter went down in either the first or second game.

The crepe hangers lost no time appearing, writing off Wake's season.

But the backup QB came in and did a helluva job, and Wake ended up winning the ACC and going to the Orange Bowl. And you could have made money betting them after the main QB went down, as the starstruck masses were betting against them.

Or, if you want to bet against a team based on injury, check the top 20 centers in college ball (and top five or six in NFL) - the lists can be found on several sites.

When a top center goes down, you could do worse than to go against that tea,. The center is the anchor of the all- important O-line. And often a QB will just not feel comfortable for a game or two with a different snap and protection. And the center will have to get used to the QBs rhythm on the count. Precision takes time.

Or, check the four best defesnive players on a team. If two or more are out with injury or whatever, you could do worse than bet against that team. Because most D players are not high profile, seen in the beer or soup commericials, the starstuck media will mostly ignore them.

But losing two or more top defenders will usually hurt a team more than losing a starting running back. That this is not public knowledge is could often mean money in you pocket.

End of rant. Back later with the rest of my bowl bets.

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 01:04 PM

I ended with the Chik Fil A bowl last pick post, the last bowl before the year expires. (BTW, is that good chicken? It's not where I live. Organic? Or at least raised in open cages, not cooped up in a cruel and unnatural position, and fed a ton of disgusting hormones and animal cadavers?)

OK fans, I never do give "locks," but this is my LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!!. Honest to god, guys, I know you won't lose with this play. I swear to you, I am 100% SURE THIS IS AN EASY WINNER . . . or my name isn't Johnny DeMarco! BET THE TIGERS IN THIS CHIK FIL A BOWL GAME!! THE TIGERS ARE GUARANTEED TO WIN, unless the end of the world happens first!!!

(I used to enjoy some of these touts, and their Telling the Tale, as Damon Runyon referred to the line of BS they tell their marks. Anothr guy from the 90s I enjoyed was a guy from Boston, Bob Dunbar, I think it was. He used to write such terrific stories about his "team" and about the near dead bettors he helped resuscitate, he should have been put on the top of the New York Times Fiction List.)

Clemson was a 3 star play (ie, two units). I won't do a write-up, except to say this: about 8 years ago while checking out some bowl teams I stumbled on an "angle" that looked interesting.

So I checked back another 8 or 10 years on it. (I actually own print versions of the Gold Sheet books with scores and pointspread info for decades past - my own go back to the early 1970s!!)

And using the angle came up with over 80% winners in the bowls. And since then it has hit over 70% winners in postseason.

It is a small sample, and certainly not statistically significant (you need at least 1000 plays to qualify for Stat Sig, and probably double or triple that.) But it is based on logic, not some weird garbage.

No method or angle is going to hit 70%+ for any really extended number of plays, but I will ride this until and when it breaks down.

I won't detail this angle, as public knowledge destroys the value of the play. And if Clemson should lose by 3 TDs you won't want it in any case.

[For those who do not follow college ball that closely, the jest above is that both Auburn and Clemson are team-named "Tigers," the most popular name in college ball. Bulldogss are pretty popular too.]

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 01:18 PM

I have no play in the OUtback, but it should be a very interessting game to watch.

I do have a totals play in the Cotton (Over), see my first post. This is an intersting game as well, and under normal circumstances I would be on Mizzou.

But these are not normal circumstances, and all sorts of extraneous issues cloud this contest. Firt, Hog HC Nutt split for greener pastures, and a long search ensued for a new guy. A lot of high profile coaches turned down the job, causing a few Razorback players to publicly wonder why no one want to mentor them for big bucks.

Then, desperate, the Arky AD hired the Wandrin' Gypsy of American football, Bobby Petrino. Didn't matter that he had three games left to play with the Atlanta NFL franchise, he had yet another chance to move up the ladder. But basically, he was the boobie prize for the Hogs.

This kind of stuff gets into the heads of the players. They would not be human if it didn't.

On the other hand: Mizzou would be in the Championship game on Jan 7 --- if they could just have won their last game of the year!

And now, losing only two games, they're not even in a BCS bowl!

Think they needed some Maalox after the season-ending loss to Okla? Think these young kids aren't still feeling the pain?

Of course, when the whistle blows for the kickoff, the emotions of the game take over. Which team can be first to rid itself of the ghosts probably wins the game. Pass for me

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 01:57 PM

GATOR - Virginia +6 *** I had finished a long write-up on this and was just about to post it, when I got the "blue screen of death." (Or maybe it was the SBR program, telling me I was taking too much time and space!)

I can't re-write it all, but basically I will take the points with an excellent Defense over the high-flying T Tech Offense. And the 6 pts.

Schedule Streght was one key for me here. I will discount Virginia's loss in the mountians of Wyoming to open the season. Otherwise they won against MTSU and DUKE.

Here are some of the teams T Tech played this season: Smu, Utep, Rice, Div 1-AA Northwestern St, Iowa St, Baylor.

Ah, but they defeated much favored Oklahoma in their season-finale.

Yes, they did, and that's another reason for me to fade 'em.

I've seen many many times a team as a dog beats a nationally ranked conference rival to end the season, and then tank in the bowl.

Last year UCLA beat crosstown arch foe USC, as a dog, and then went at a FG fave to the Emerald, over a month later, to take on continent travelling Florida St.

And the Bruins them dumped it, losing big. Hell, the Emerald Bowl wasn't their big game, that was the one that happened a month ago vs the Trojans.

They were stilll celebrating that win, and down for the crummy little bowl game. I'll tke the points and say that the Cavs have the most motivation here.

Better post this before I get bluescreened again.

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 02:07 PM

I'll pass the Rose and Sugar. USC (now maybe the best team in the land) is laying too many pts for my taste. And Hawaii not getting enough.

FIESTA - Oklahoma -7.5 * One of the top two or three teams in the land IMHO playing against a squad whose players and fans are completely pissed and discombobulated that their favorite son HC Rich Rodriquez couldn't wait to split, not even staying to coach his boys in their BCS bowl.

Looks almost too easy for the Sooners, altho they too wanted for something better, like a Jan 7 date in New Orleans. In fact, I read on a Bearmz post that they lobbied hard to get Va Tech, a better team right now than the Mountaineers.

Of course, when the whistle blows many players will try to play thier best, esp those planning to enther the NFL draft.But the Stoops gang is worthy of a bet,and I won't argue with those who thinks it worth more than one star.

I will buy the hook tho.

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 02:17 PM

In the Orange I have an Under total. I came close to betting Va Tech, a much better team now than at season's beginning, with the mass murder tragedy at their school still in mind, and having missed that essential summer practice.

If the game had stayed a pick I would be on VA Tech. But I don't want to lay points here.

I ahve an Over total in GMAC. And an Under in the Championship game, tho I'm aware that those affairs are often high-scoring.

I dont have a side in the LSU/OSU affair. I may bet some beer and sandwich money on OSU, only because of their fine defense and getting points, and for the action, but won't count it in my record.

Should I come out ahead unit-wise on the bowls, and should I have time come March, I may be back to do March Madness, where I've done well most years in the past.

Merry Christmas to All, and To All a Good Night!

he exclaimed as he slipped out of sight

**ritehook** · 12-23-07, 11:58 PM

I think I'll just fade my own picks the rest of the way.

"He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And filled all the stockings, then turned with a jerk . . ."

I'm thinking I'm the jerk that the poet Clement Moore was talking about . . .

**OrionSky** · 12-25-07, 12:53 AM

Great info Johnny DeMarco, well appreciated!!

(your Tigers lock)

**ritehook** · 01-04-08, 06:44 PM

With only a few games left, not too good so far. I played too many games, maybe I should join Gambler's Anonymous part-time to cure that prob.

OK so far on the Totals, shoulda woulda coulda made them all 3 units, I always do well there. (And having said it watch the couple I got left dump.)

OH well, touting is fun, that's why so many of us do it, even gratis. And it was alsmot predictable the first time I go public and gratis I end up in ye olde dumper.

But I likely will be back next season, to do it again. And again and again and again, until I get it right.

Maybe March Madness too, in a coupla months. What the hell, the first time you get pie in the face it's embarrassing, sour. The second time it's sweet . . . .

**20Four7** · 01-04-08, 07:06 PM

I read your picks but didn't really follow them, so I just checked now.

Impressive record on your first post

INSIGHT - Over 68.5 2 unit
CHICK FIL A - Under 47 2 units
COTTON - over 69 1 unit
ORANGE - under 53.5 1 unit
GMAC - over 76 2 units
Championship game - under 49 2 units

GL on the remaining games.