Has Notre Dame Lost Public Betting Appeal?
What Would (touchdown) Jesus Do? Has the public sheen worn off a downtrodden Notre Dame football program to give the Fighting Irish more value at the college football betting window?
If there’s any positive to come from Charlie Weis’ final three years at Notre Dame, it’s that the program did so poorly. The Fighting Irish’s 16-21 SU record – the worst three-year stretch in Notre Dame history – was the best thing that could’ve happened to them.
I’m coming at this from a betting perspective. The biggest challenge for the Irish isn’t recruiting, high academic standards, or even offensive and defensive matchups.
Notre Dame’s toughest opponent is the expectations of the betting public. Every year, the Irish are supremely overrated by square bettors. Now that Weis has driven the Irish to their lowest point, perhaps we can all get a decent price on college football’s most public program.
Don’t bet on it happening. Notre Dame is the only team in the country with a national TV deal (thank you, Dick Ebersol and NBC), and that’s not going to change anytime soon.
That said, there’s reason to keep the Irish on your radar this season. Notre Dame figures to improve on last season’s disappointing records both in the standings (6-6 straight up) and against the betting odds (4-8 against the spread).
Oddsmakers have the Irish season win total set at 8, and a look at Notre Dame’s schedule reveals that it’s a sharp number.
I can’t see the Irish getting more than eight wins this season, and a push is a likely possibility. If anything, take the ‘under’ on the college football futures wager and bank on a one-win improvement from last season.
Brian Kelly is a major coup as a replacement for Weis, but this is a transition year in South Bend in more ways than one. Kelly is moving the Irish away from a pro-style offense to the spread-offense he employed successfully at Cincinnati, while defensive coordinator Bob Diaco is switching the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base.
These are good decisions given the personnel on the roster, especially on defense. Notre Dame ranked 86th in the nation in total defense (397.8 YPG) and 89th against the run (170.2 YPG), so something needed to change. Putting more of the onus on the linebackers and secondary instead of the defensive line was a much-needed shift.
But a shift it is, and the defense needs time to adjust. There’s continuity with seven starters returning from last season, but is it necessarily a good thing when over half of a mediocre unit is back on the field?
Kelly is known for his explosive offenses, but the Irish were excellent in this department with Weis running the show. Led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame ranked eighth in total offense (451.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (323.5 YPG).
No one is talking about it, but Clausen’s departure is a huge loss. Yes, he fell to the No. 48 pick in this year’s NFL draft, but the reality is Clausen was one of the top three quarterbacks in the college game last year. Replacement Dayne Crist is untested, and is coming off knee surgery.
The good news is Kelly and Crist have a trio of talented and experienced weapons around which to base the attack.
Wide receiver Michael Floyd is injury prone, but is dangerous when healthy. Floyd led the Irish with 18.1 YPC last season, and had nine touchdowns in seven games before separating his shoulder. Running back Armando Allen is solid, and tight end Kyle Rudolph is a first-round draft choice waiting to happen.
Still, there has to be growing pains with a new offense and an offensive line that lost three starters. It’s not like Notre Dame plays any cupcake games against Division II opponents, either: The Irish open against Purdue before tackling Michigan and Michigan State.
Notre Dame is headed in the right direction with Kelly at the helm, but we won’t see major strides until next season. Expect slight improvement for the Irish, who should be a better wager this year if only because of last season’s finish.
Kelly’s been a huge success no matter where he’s coached, and he inherits a good talent base from Weis. It looks like he’s a decent recruiter himself, too: Last weekend, Kelly reeled in defensive ends Aaron Lynch and Anthony Rabasa, two players ranked in the top 10 at their position by Scouts Inc.
What Would (touchdown) Jesus Do? Has the public sheen worn off a downtrodden Notre Dame football program to give the Fighting Irish more value at the college football betting window?
If there’s any positive to come from Charlie Weis’ final three years at Notre Dame, it’s that the program did so poorly. The Fighting Irish’s 16-21 SU record – the worst three-year stretch in Notre Dame history – was the best thing that could’ve happened to them.
I’m coming at this from a betting perspective. The biggest challenge for the Irish isn’t recruiting, high academic standards, or even offensive and defensive matchups.
Notre Dame’s toughest opponent is the expectations of the betting public. Every year, the Irish are supremely overrated by square bettors. Now that Weis has driven the Irish to their lowest point, perhaps we can all get a decent price on college football’s most public program.
Don’t bet on it happening. Notre Dame is the only team in the country with a national TV deal (thank you, Dick Ebersol and NBC), and that’s not going to change anytime soon.
That said, there’s reason to keep the Irish on your radar this season. Notre Dame figures to improve on last season’s disappointing records both in the standings (6-6 straight up) and against the betting odds (4-8 against the spread).
Oddsmakers have the Irish season win total set at 8, and a look at Notre Dame’s schedule reveals that it’s a sharp number.
I can’t see the Irish getting more than eight wins this season, and a push is a likely possibility. If anything, take the ‘under’ on the college football futures wager and bank on a one-win improvement from last season.
Brian Kelly is a major coup as a replacement for Weis, but this is a transition year in South Bend in more ways than one. Kelly is moving the Irish away from a pro-style offense to the spread-offense he employed successfully at Cincinnati, while defensive coordinator Bob Diaco is switching the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base.
These are good decisions given the personnel on the roster, especially on defense. Notre Dame ranked 86th in the nation in total defense (397.8 YPG) and 89th against the run (170.2 YPG), so something needed to change. Putting more of the onus on the linebackers and secondary instead of the defensive line was a much-needed shift.
But a shift it is, and the defense needs time to adjust. There’s continuity with seven starters returning from last season, but is it necessarily a good thing when over half of a mediocre unit is back on the field?
Kelly is known for his explosive offenses, but the Irish were excellent in this department with Weis running the show. Led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame ranked eighth in total offense (451.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (323.5 YPG).
No one is talking about it, but Clausen’s departure is a huge loss. Yes, he fell to the No. 48 pick in this year’s NFL draft, but the reality is Clausen was one of the top three quarterbacks in the college game last year. Replacement Dayne Crist is untested, and is coming off knee surgery.
The good news is Kelly and Crist have a trio of talented and experienced weapons around which to base the attack.
Wide receiver Michael Floyd is injury prone, but is dangerous when healthy. Floyd led the Irish with 18.1 YPC last season, and had nine touchdowns in seven games before separating his shoulder. Running back Armando Allen is solid, and tight end Kyle Rudolph is a first-round draft choice waiting to happen.
Still, there has to be growing pains with a new offense and an offensive line that lost three starters. It’s not like Notre Dame plays any cupcake games against Division II opponents, either: The Irish open against Purdue before tackling Michigan and Michigan State.
Notre Dame is headed in the right direction with Kelly at the helm, but we won’t see major strides until next season. Expect slight improvement for the Irish, who should be a better wager this year if only because of last season’s finish.
Kelly’s been a huge success no matter where he’s coached, and he inherits a good talent base from Weis. It looks like he’s a decent recruiter himself, too: Last weekend, Kelly reeled in defensive ends Aaron Lynch and Anthony Rabasa, two players ranked in the top 10 at their position by Scouts Inc.
