Week 12 plays from Buddy

**Louisvillekid1** · 11-16-07, 12:40 PM

gl, what makes you so confident about michigan?

**Cougar Bait** · 11-16-07, 12:44 PM

Yeah, I'd like to know also since I don't think they'll win the battle up front. They give up close to 60 yds. more on the ground per game than Ohio State. Also, Henne and Hart not 100% looks troubling. Interested to hear your side though and GL!

**bmac** · 11-16-07, 12:46 PM

GL BB..... I hope Mich cashes for you. I won't be on it but I will be rooting for them.

**BuddyBear** · 11-16-07, 01:20 PM

Thanks guys...

The way I see it:

1) Michigan has a very strong homefield (41-7 SU the last 8 years). They are almost never a home dog but when they are they've played very well going 3-1 ATS like the last 10 years or something. So Michigan seems to play well in this role. Compound that with several major revenge angles I think the situation becomes ever stronger to back Michigan.

2) 4 points is a lot of points. You look at the last 5 years of the series in the 4 games OSU has won, they won by 5, 16, 4, and 3. The implication here is that these games are relatively close. The 16 pt loss was something of an anomaly in this series and it was in Columbus. OSU's wins in Michigan have been by 4 and I don't have the score for '01 but it was a single digit game I believe. Maybe 8 or something like that....that was Tressel's first year and Michigan played pathetic that day and really were caught off guard. So I am counting on the fact that a close game, either way, helps me.

3) Teams that lose their first game of the season 10 games + into the season are major fades the following week. If there is one trend/system that is time-tested it is this one. If you played this from now till the rest of time you would be gold. A perfect example was Boston College and ASU last week both teams burned money for their backers. I am not saying it always wins, obviously it does not, but it is going to win you more than it is going to lose you.

4) I fully expected Henne and Hart to play. And if they do, they have a major advantage at the QB and RB position. Carr has been very conservative with these two. He did not play them vs. Minnesota nor against Wisconsin and they've basically played one game the last month (against MSU). They should be surprisingly rested for this game at this stage of the year. Hart was basically begging to play last week.

5) Michigan loss at UW was meaningless. Anyone who watched the game saw that Michigan could have cared less to play that game knowing it meant nothing and instead opted to rest their key players. On the other hand, OSU had their hands full with Illinois and lost outright, and badly at that. The Illini dominated that game and the score wasn't even as close at it made it seem. Even though both lost, the loss at home against Illinois was shocking. I have serious reservations about how OSU is going to respond off that loss. True a BCS berth is still at stake but they were playing for an undefeated season and a trip to the National Championship game...all out the window now. I feel their psyche is very fragile right now.

6) Seniors have never beat OSU. All things being equal, Michigan seniors still have a chance to fulfill many of thier goals. Yes losses to App state and Oregon made a national title game out of the question but they can still win a Big Ten title, beat OSU, and still win a BCS bowl game...3 things they have never done. I expect them to be very focused for this game.

7) Lloyd Carr's last game? Not sure, but this is a coach who is a good motivator and his players like him a ton. They've defended him all year and no doubt want to win this game for him as much as anyone else. I really think this speculation serves only to strengthen Michigan rather than serve as a distraction. I think the players rally around Carr and have a great performence.

8) Intangibles: Well, if Mich can't beat OSU this year they probably never will. The situation, i believe, is ripe for an upset. I just got a report last night from Ann Arbor that the atmosphere is electric and players are highly focused on winning this game. Being at home, with revenge, and having your senior class never have beaten OSU should motivate players enough to have a great performences. I am going to take my chances with Michigan this week.

I could be totally wrong, it won't be the first or last time, but this is the way I see this game playing out.

Good luck fellows....

**BravoWhiskey** · 11-16-07, 01:20 PM

Good luck Buddy, you've got some stones. I just don't trust Michigan if Henne and Hart aren't 100%. I think Tressel just has Lloyd Carr's number.

**taurus** · 11-16-07, 01:30 PM

Good luck with your play, Buddy.
I don't disagree with your selection, but I do quarrel with the potential impact on your bankroll.

**The Seer** · 11-16-07, 01:48 PM

Buddy, we are thinking along the same lines on this game. I do believe that of the loses each team suffered last week, it was more damaging to Ohio State. Their national championship dreams just went down the drain again after being close 2 years in a row. Michigan's goals haven't changed since the 3rd game of the season. It's too hard for OSU to be let down so bad and then have to turn around and get back up for a game of this magnitude. Go Michigan!

**BuddyBear** · 11-16-07, 04:28 PM

Thanks fellows. I know it's a lot of units but I am comfortable with doing it. It will be a shame if I lose but those are the risks you have to take when you bet on sports I feel Michigan should be very very competitive and should win this game outright.

Good luck to all.....

**austintx05** · 11-16-07, 04:38 PM

I love it buddy, that UM train has been on its way for about 6 weeks now...good luck....

**pags11** · 11-16-07, 05:14 PM

buddy,

you have some big brass balls and I respect that...don't you just love college football compared to college hoops (screw those end games!)...BOL to you tomorrow my friend...

**manny24** · 11-16-07, 05:19 PM

i don't trust the wolverines either but going to pull for your cover 2morrow buddy. good luck boss!

**rjt721** · 11-16-07, 06:25 PM

Completely agree with your assessment of the OSU/UM game. I'm not sure why many feel OSU is far superior to UM to the point that the Buckeyes being a 4-point road favorite is justified. Pretty ridiculous, really. Maybe Henne and Hart's status plays into the line being what it is, but make no mistake - both will play. Henne has some discomfort in his shoulder, but it doesn't affect his performance. He's played through the pain all year and has actually been at his best in recent weeks. Similarly, Hart will also start. His status being defined as "questionable" is absurd - he's playing. Hart was available to play last week, and if the game had any meaning he would have. People betting OSU primarily because of the injury status of Henne and Hart are making a mistake.

I think the efects of OSU losing last week are a bit overstated. While having their title national championship chances thwarted is disappointing, playing for the outright Big 11 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl, while at the same time preventing your bitter rival from achieving the same goal, is more than enough to play for. Had the Illinois loss come at any other time than the week preceding the UM game it likely would be a factor, but I fully anticipate OSU being ready to play.

The truth is, UM matches up well with OSU. While statistically OSU possesses one of the best defenses in the country, a similarly great Buckeyes' defense got torched for 39 points last year by a UM offense that returns virtually all key offensive members (only Breaston is gone). OSU lost much of its offense and Boeckman isn't the running threat of Troy Smith. Beanie Wells is very good, but without the playmakers all over the field last year's OSU team had, he will be the primary focus of a UM run defense that's shown steady improvement throughout the season.

Add in all the situational aspects - Henne, Hart, Long, Crable & co. last chance to beat OSU, the fact this game has been the one and only focus of the players from the second week of the season, and the near certainty that this is Lloyd Carr's last regular season game - something the players are fully aware of - and all signs point to an outright UM win.

I also agree with your Wazzou play.

Good luck this week BB.

**Willie Bee** · 11-16-07, 06:38 PM

Best of luck this weekend, Buddy, especially with your Michigan plays over Ohowihateohio State

**imgv94** · 11-16-07, 06:41 PM

I'll be rooting for you buddy. I kind of like OSU in this one but the line is too high.

Michigan is such a hard team to figure out and Tressel has something up his sleeve. 4 points isn't really that much when you think about it.

GL though

**louisvillekid** · 11-16-07, 06:48 PM

don't agree or disagree with your plays, i just don't have a good feel about any of those, seems like a coin toss for most of them. i'm personally not on any of those games. but GL BB.

**BuddyBear** · 11-16-07, 07:08 PM

Thanks fellows...we'll see how it goes.

LKid: Well research shows that after you place a bet you feel more confident that you are going to win. It's only natural i feel confident...lol. I guess the UL-Monroe play has me slightly concerned only b/c they are going to lose and the team that wins the game covers 76% of the time and believe it or not this could be a sandwhich game for UL-Monroe (not Alabama) since ULM played a big game vs. Grambling last week and has UL-Lafayette next week. They may be looking ahead and this game is relatively meaningless for them.

That being the case, Alabama is extremely overrated and asking them to cover 25 may be a bit much. I'll see what happens I guess.

Good luck to all this weekend....

**imgv94** · 11-16-07, 07:10 PM

Where do you see this line going?

**BuddyBear** · 11-16-07, 07:12 PM

Rjt: Thanks for the kind of words. That's the way I see it and am perplexed by the 4 pts. Generally when a team loses their first game this late in the year, people rationalize to themselves that they can't lose two in a row....they exprience a cognitive bias and irrational thinking that something can't happen two times in a row. Oddsmakers have certainly inflated this line to reflect those biases people expereience.

When you consider the 5 wins OSU has over Michigan in the Tressel era are by 6, 5, 16, 4, 3 and this is clearly Tressel's least talented team since his 2001 team you have to wonder what is the basis of that -4.

Sorry but Todd Boeckman is good but he is not Troy Smith.....and certainly if Illinois could control OSU like that it stands to reason that Michigan can and should be able to do so as well.

**BuddyBear** · 11-16-07, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

Where do you see this line going?

For the most part, I see it staying around 4. I think books are getting good two way action on this game even though it was released late. There is still some uncertainty surrounding Henne and Hart and as soon as word gets out Saturday morning that they are going to play the line may dip down to +3.5 possible even +3. I really have a hard time seeing this going up....but if it is announced that Henne and Hart are out or not starting this line could shoot up.

I guess I would recommend monitoring SBRlines...i am going to operate under the assumption that Henne and Hart are playing and +4 is high.

**imgv94** · 11-16-07, 07:15 PM

You type fast.. May I know how many wpm you can do?

**BuddyBear** · 11-16-07, 07:16 PM

78 wpm....

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**BuddyBear** · 11-17-07, 10:32 AM

Adding another 5 units on Michigan +3.5

Keep hitting it boys.......Square books have the spread -4/+4, sharp books have it -3.5/+3.5

**OldZig** · 11-17-07, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Been a tough stretch lately. Get off to a good start, looks like a big weekend, then the teams I am backing in the evening fade. Can't win them all. As the season winds down there are just a few more opportunities for a big payout. This week I am going to make my biggest bet ever on a team. Little nervous because it is a bit out of character but last year made what was then my biggest play and it cashed easily (Louisville +1 against WVU) I may even add more but am very confident about the situation right now and expect them to win outright.

YTD 50-44

370 Michigan +4.5 & +4 (Biggest play ever, 10 units)
371 Miami (FL) +17
380 Washington State -2 & -3
388 Minnesota +14
397 UL-Monroe +25

Analysis upon request. Good luck to every this weekend!

That Michigan game just scares me but I love your Minn pick. Good Luck.

**theshark** · 11-17-07, 11:42 AM

buddy i think personally you are crazy and i hope you dont dig yourself a hole with this game...like i said last night this game came up 33 on my list and i would not touch it with a 10 foot pole....if i was betting the game i would be on ohio st...they are going to come out really pissed after last week and take it out on michigan...ill say it michigan is garbage whether they are playing in the big house or on the road....im sorry my friend i think you over stepped you bounds here...i will be pulling for you but i dont see much hope for you here buddy..i think imo it will be a route...sorry thats my take on the game even though im not betting it.....the shark spits this game out...nasty taste here....theshark

**mark wahlberg** · 11-17-07, 05:36 PM

sorry for your bad season hope u learned a lesson

**BuddyBear** · 11-17-07, 07:07 PM

bad season? If you haven't noticed, I've picked more winners than losers. More than I can say for you. Great call with CAL -7, they are only down 14 with 2:00 left to go, and you are laying -7.

**BuddyBear** · 11-17-07, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by theshark

buddy i think personally you are crazy and i hope you dont dig yourself a hole with this game...like i said last night this game came up 33 on my list and i would not touch it with a 10 foot pole....if i was betting the game i would be on ohio st...they are going to come out really pissed after last week and take it out on michigan...ill say it michigan is garbage whether they are playing in the big house or on the road....im sorry my friend i think you over stepped you bounds here...i will be pulling for you but i dont see much hope for you here buddy..i think imo it will be a route...sorry thats my take on the game even though im not betting it.....the shark spits this game out...nasty taste here....theshark

lol...33rd. Yeah, it was a tough beat. Mich had their chances, had some great field position, and had their defense play well. Unfortunately, there receivers dropped a ton of balls and clearly Henne and Hart were anything but healthy for this game. Henne was unfortunately too stubborn to remove hismself from this game....oh well, still been a great year but very disappointing was this game.

**bmac** · 11-18-07, 10:29 AM

Mark you have no class

**John Layfield** · 11-18-07, 12:31 PM

Mark may have no class but he was absolutely right. You can't put that much of your bankroll on any one game no matter how confident you are on your picks, thats a big time donkey move. I have made hundreds of thousands of dollars on sports gambling, trust me, I know what an amature move is, and that was an amature move from someone who seems to usually know what he is doing.

**imgv94** · 11-18-07, 03:01 PM

Yeah this thread is a good example as to why money management is so important. Buddybear was ahead a little bit now he's down pretty big for the season all because of one play.

I've made this mistake a lot of times and learned it's never good to have all your eggs in one basket.

Hope you turn things around BB.

**BuddyBear** · 11-18-07, 08:59 PM

1) First of all Mark is an idiot and more than likely an alias. Moreover, his big play was getting annihilated while he was criticizing me (see his thread)...meanwhile Mich was covering over half the game and in position to cover the entire way if their offense got it going....

2) I admited it was a bad call....I regret placing that many units but in terms of my handicapping and logic I would make the bet over again just not for that much. The problem I felt was that I overemphasized situation, and underemphasized the teams and coaching and quite frankly I should have been more skeptical about the injuries to Henne and Hart even though they were "cleared" to play. Anyone who watched the game should have realized that if they were playing Minneosta or Bowling Green they would not have played a single down. Henne was too stubborn.....

3) Hunderds of thousands of dollars sports betting.....lol. I am wondering who is gullible enough to believe you. Surely somone is on here since the quality of posters is falling fast. People who actually mention how much they win and that they win big are pathalogical liars. Amateur move? All the big time sports bettor get down big when they perceive they have an edge. If it had cashed, you guys would have said "great job Buddy, way to be aggressive..." Of course, when it does not hit, you all revel in the fact that it lost. I'll at least admire the Shark for saying it beforehand.....

4) I know some of you well on here and have wished me the best of luck and probably feel for me after this loss, but others of you are thrilled to death when a capper loses and probably get more excited when the capper loses than when you win. That's the nature of the gaming forum. That being the case, for those of you who've provided me with insights and constructive criticism and have shared analysis I appreciate your support and look forward to continue working with you. For the rest of you, not sure what to say....

5) Who says I am losing? I appreciate your speculation IMGV but it is not based on any evidence that you have unless you've been logging into my accounts recently. None of you have seen me post NFL or NBA or NCAA. I still have more wins than losses in NCAAF and still consider myself a better than average capper. The strategy of going big on a play this weekend didn't work out....oh well, that's life. I am not disappointed b/c i knew the risks associated with such a play. That being the case, there is still a lot of season left and I'll go from there. In the end, it's only money......

Good luck fellows....

**durito** · 11-18-07, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Surely somone is on here since the quality of posters is falling fast.

It sure is.

Going against teams that lost for the first time in the last week or two late in the season is a strong angle and I expect it will continue to be profitable. I lost on it myself going against BC yesterday.

**imgv94** · 11-18-07, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

1) 5) Who says I am losing? I appreciate your speculation IMGV but it is not based on any evidence that you have unless you've been logging into my accounts recently. Good luck fellows....

Ok.. you were six games over .500 betting flat. You bet 15x your normal bet and loss, that is where speculation came from.

I was rooting for you.

**BuddyBear** · 11-18-07, 09:21 PM

I wasn't flat betting, I had increased my unit size. Moreover, I've been betting in other sports as well.

I am not saying i up or down...that is irrelevant. I am saying just judge me by my picks and analysis. My record is what it is. Right now, i've found more winners than losers but yes the big play hurt. It's obvious, no need to continue to emphasize it. Is this season better than last? No. I am disappointed myself with how Michigan came out.....I really thought we'd see something special from Michigan...i was wrong.

Good luck fellows....