Pags' Plays 11/4

[bueller]

Anyone think that the suspension of the 5 Alabama player is going to effect the turn out of the game?
Antoine Caldwell OL
Marlon Davis OL
Glen Coffee RB- this might hurt them a bit.
Marquis Johnson DB
Chris Rogers DB

[wolves]

Thanks and GL pags.
Looking forward to your write ups this week. Really interested in hearing about what you have to say about the NC Stage game, still just leaning on that one.

[onlooker]

Hey Pags.

Only one I am against you on is the North Carolina State play, I will be on Miami FL in that one. Nothing on the rest of your games.

Good luck this weekend pags.

[bearmz]

[QUOTE=imgv94;395905]

[pags11]

austin,

very good point my friend...thanks...GL to you as well...

imgv,

appreciate the eye candy yet again this week...

bueller,

glad we will be on Bama together...

duckward,

I'll get more into my thoughts on my N.C. State play later this week, but one thing I heard Dennis Erickson say last week is, "tape doesn't lie"...I've watched both these teams play a lot and I really like the way N.C. State has been playing of late...more to come here soon...GL to you...

bueller,

my comment on those suspended players for Bama are that it shouldn't at all outway the suspension of Ryan Perriloux and the LB for LSU who will miss this week as well...

wolves,

Tom O'Brien has these guys competing week in and week out..I also like the way QB Evans has been playing and some receiving threats have emerged in the offense as well...

onlooker,

sorry to hear we will be against eachother in the N.C. State game...if I pick like I did last week, that may end up being a good thing for you...

bearmz,

I agree fully...

[pags11]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:

N.C. State +13.5

N.C. State comes into this game playing some pretty good football of late. Tom O’Brien has his team believing in his system and this is a much better team than they were at the beginning of the season. Part of the reason for the turnaround was the infusion of last year’s starting QB, Daniel Evans, back into the line up. He is completing over 60% of his passes and has passed for over three hundred yards the past two games. His favorite target of late is WR Donald Bowens (16 catches with 295 yards receiving the past two games). RB Jamelle Eugene (276 rushing yards the last three games) has also emerged as the premiere back, after the season ending injuries to Tony Baker and Andre Brown. Defensively, O’Brien finally has his team executing the bend but don’t break philosophy he played with his B.C. teams over the years. This team buckles down inside the thirty, as they are yielding about 24 points per game. They will be facing a Miami offense that lacks a true passing threat. Reports I have read list Kyle Wright as questionable for this game. Even if he does play, he’s had his problems being efficient with the football so far this year. His back-up Kirby Freeman, while more mobile, and is even less skilled in throwing the football. This means that Miami could become a bit one dimensional, which makes them less difficult to defend. Also, a week off for this young Miami team could have them coming out of the gates a bit rusty. It’s N.C. State and the points for me in this one.

Alabama +7

Much is being made about Les Miles and Nick Saban, being that Saban was the last head coach at LSU before Miles took over. I’m not sure that is that big of a deal, although I do think Miles may press a bit in this game to prove he’s the better coach (despite all of his rhetoric in his press conference this week). The big thing to point out is that Saban is a far superior coach than Miles. Miles may have the better team on paper, but Saban will have the superior game plan here (especially with the week off). I look for Alabama to open up the running game with their passing game. Their line does a good job with their pass protection, but struggles at times in opening up holes for their running game. This is why a lot of the running plays they use are draws and delays. Fortunately for Alabama, QB John Parker Wilson has started to become more accurate as the season has gone on. Look for him to throw the ball D.J. Hall’s way on a consistent basis. If LSU attempts to double team Hall, Alabama has several other receiving options (led by Matt Caddell and Mike McCoy). If Keith Brown can also break out, that makes four legit receivers that can be on the field at one time. Look for RB Terry Grant to get the majority of the carries this week, with RB Glenn Coffee still being suspended. Grant seems to get better as the game goes on, so I see this being a good thing. Defensively, Alabama will attempt to confuse the LSU offense with intricate blitz schemes against the pass. Also, Alabama’s run defense has really played much better since the Arkansas game and I look for them to contain the LSU running game. Like I said, this game isn’t played on paper and I think Saban and crew find a way to battle until the end. I’ll take Alabama plus the points here.


Oklahoma St. +3

Mike Gundy’s squad is a much better squad at home than they are on the road. Their offense is as explosive and also balanced as there is in the Big 12. QB Zac Robinson has played very well, since taking over for last year’s starter Bobby Reid. OSU opens up their passing game with their running game, as they boast 5 players (including QB Robinson and workhorse RB Dantrell Savage) that average over 5 yards per carry. This says a lot about the offensive line for them, who also do an excellent job with their pass protection. QB Robinson has been very efficient this year with almost twice as nearly touchdowns as interceptions. His favorite target is physical specimen WR Adarius Bowman. When OSU needs a first down, they look to throw to TE Brandon Pettigrew. Anyone that has watched Texas play this year realizes this isn’t the same Texas defense as year’s past. Watching last week’s game vs. Nebraska, along with several others this year (and remember I believe in the saying “tape doesn’t lie”) makes me confident that OSU will be able to move the ball consistently. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that OSU has the best defense on the planet, but I think they should have a good scheme vs. Texas, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare. QB Colt McCoy has put up some good numbers, but he doesn’t seem to be making very good decisions this year (as noted by his 13 interceptions). I’ve also noticed that he’s taken quite a few big hits and he seems to be wearing down, much like he did last year. OSU will have to focus on containing RB Jamaal Charles and the three key Texas receivers. This should end up being a shootout, but I think OSU can outlast Texas in this game. I’ll take Oklahoma St. in a game I think they can win on the field.


Iowa St. +14.5

This is a game where I believe you have to look a little deeper into, rather than just looking at each team’s record. Gene Chizik still has his young team playing hard on a regular basis and I look for more of the same from them this week. They’ve also played a lot better at home than they have on the road. QB Bret Meyer (the active all time passing yardage leader in the NCAA) has been very efficient this year and also is extremely mobile. He will look to get the ball to big play receiver, Todd Blythe. The thing I was most impressed with last week in ISU’s game with Missouri was the emergence of young running back, Alexander Robinson. ISU will have to be patient, but I think they can move the ball vs. KSU. Defensively, ISU has been very scrappy which is a sign of what Chizik is trying to instill in his team I like the way they match up vs. a young Kansas State offense. Anyone that has watched KSU play this year can see that the nature of their play calling is extremely conservative. They are the type of team that likes to grind it out, although they have had their issues with turnovers this season. ISU will have to look to contain WR Jordy Nelson, who’s second in the nation in receptions right now and is also a playmaker on special teams. If Meyer can distribute the ball to Blythe and crew, moving the chains and keeping their defense off the field for chunks of time, I think they have a shot to keep this one very close. KSU has more important things to worry about than trying to blow-out this Iowa St. team. That being said, I’ll take Iowa St. and the two touchdowns plus.


Vanderbilt +17

Vanderbilt is another team that has quietly been playing some very good football the last month or so of the season. My biggest issue with them at the beginning of the season was their lack of consistent QB play. QB Mackenzi Adams has emerged as a dual threat, reminding me a lot of Jay Cutler. He will be playing with a bruise chest, but all reports I read indicate he will be a go this weekend. All SEC WR Earl Bennett, fresh off setting the career records for receptions by an SEC receiver, will be a difficult player for the young Florida secondary to defend. The success in the passing game has opened up the running game a bit for running backs Cassen Jackson-Garrison and Jeff Jennings. I also think Bobby Johnson is an intelligent and extremely underrated head coach. He has had a lot of success the last couple of years against Florida. Two years ago, this team went into the swamp and took Florida to overtime. Many players on this year’s squad played in that game as well as a game last year that was decided by less than ten points. One has to question Florida’s mind set coming into this game. QB Tim Tebow isn’t near the running threat he was at the beginning of the season due to his shoulder injury (which has also affected his accuracy throwing the ball). Head coach Urban Meyer is very displeased with the play of RB Kestahn Moore, so he may be on the sidelines for much of this game. This will mean more runs from Percy Harvin, which also means one less receiving threat for Tebow to throw to downfield. This will help Vandy’s secondary focus on Cornelius Ingram and Andre “Bubba” Caldwell (who just hasn’t been the same this year and may still be banged up). In watching Florida’s press conference, it’s very evident that Florida has some key injuries to their defensive line and line backing crew. This could prevent Florida from stopping Vandy regularly, enabling for Vandy to hang around deep into the game. I’ll take Vandy and the points yet again.

Good luck to all.

pags11

[Wassymac]

Great as always. Best of luck this weekend Pags.

[masr]

Thanks for the good insight on games, fairly new to forum and found your input in games very informative... thanks again.
Like: ALA,NC st, OK st
To a good week

[odusmykal]

Great write up's once again, Coach.. I'm loving your Vandy and Alabama picks.. Best of luck this week..

[BravoWhiskey]

Be careful with Colorado-Mizzou BTH. The Buffs play pretty stout at home this year under Hawkins (ask Oklahoma) and Mizzou hasn't won in Boulder since 97' I think this will be a good matchup, and an interesting one to watch. I'm not playing this game, but if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to play it, I'd side with Colorado. I just have a feeling that this is a field goal game, if not an outright win for Colorado. This is Mizzou's first game at altitude this season, and that can have an impact as well.

[tblues2005]

Have a good weekend there pags, I like most of your plays, I hope they come through for you.

[bmac]

BOL pags. I on your coat tail with OK state. Hope we cash this one.

[Teasem]

Be careful with Colorado-Mizzou BTH. The Buffs play pretty stout at home this year under Hawkins (ask Oklahoma) and Mizzou hasn't won in Boulder since 97' I think this will be a good matchup, and an interesting one to watch. I'm not playing this game, but if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to play it, I'd side with Colorado. I just have a feeling that this is a field goal game, if not an outright win for Colorado. This is Mizzou's first game at altitude this season, and that can have an impact as well.

Trends are made to be broken

I actually locked Mizzou in at -3 , but in Colorado or not, the Tigers are ready to go

[Cougar Bait]

Nice write-ups. With you on Alabama, Vandy, and Oklahoma St. I also went with Oregon and Missouri to mix it up a bit. GL this week!

[pags11]

wassymac,

appreciate it bro...hopefully my performance will be better than last week...

masr,

welcome to SBR...thanks for the well wishes, I definitely need it...

odu,

thanks man...BOL to you as well...

bravo,

thanks for the heads up in that game...will take it into consideration...

tblues,

always appreciate you stopping in...thanks...GL to you too this week...

teasem,

GL...

bet the house,

thanks regarding the write-ups...BOL as well to you...

[Teasem]

Oh yeah, the write ups are great as always Pags

[Boilermaker04]

Pags

Great write-ups. BOL to you this week. I have had a good feeling all week about Sat.

[taurus]

5 hungry dogs

For what it's worth , I had already decided on Okla St, N C State, and Iowa State to be on my large card.
I see no reason not to add the SEC games, a conference where I don't seem to do well.
So let's sweep the board, pags.
GL

[r2d2]

lets tee it up and hit that fvcker down the fair way coach. solid, solid picks. lets do this.

[pags11]

teasem,

thank you bud...

boilermaker,

I appreciate you saying that...thanks for the support my friend...

taurus,

always appreciate contributing to the bull sheet...BOL this weekend...

r2d2,

thanks for stopping in and thanks for the comments...for sure...GL pal...

[icemantbi]

I have a very good feeling about your picks tomorrow Pags. Let's cash on all of them. GL

[emat]

Pags, love both Iowa State and Oklahoma State. I think both could win outright. I will admit I have had a tough time predicting Kansas State this year, but I feel like ISU is a very strong play here. ISU has good experience at the skill position and beat KSU bad 2 years ago in Ames. KSU defense gets exposed on balanced teams and although ISU offense has not been good all year, I do think they have good balance with Myer and Blythe. Iowa State almost beat OU 2 weeks in Ames and stat wise outplayed Mizzou in Columba, which has been a snake pit this year. I thought this line would 7 points so +15.5 now is in my opinion very strong value. Okie State should be favored as well and not a dog. My entertainment Parlay, ISU +500, Okie St. +125, and KU -20. 25 to 1.

[onlooker]

Well pags, lets look for a Miami win by 12 or 13 since you got 13.5 with North Carolina State. I got Miami -11. So it is possible for us both to win that game.

[The Seer]

I'm with you on Ala, Vandy, Okl.St. I like Miami Fl but not enough to get on it. THE SEC is my specialty. I'm deep in SEC country and have gone 6-0 for and against LSU this year. Let's hope the streak continues. I'm leaning on ARK, GA, and against TN as well. Good luck.

[Cardfan]

All plays for 2.5 units...

N.C. State +13.5
Alabama +7
Oklahoma St. +3
Iowa St. +14.5
Vanderbilt +17

Pags must be influencing the lines.

@ VIP
NC St +11
Alabama +7
Ok St +2.5
Iowa St +15
Vandy +14.5

2.5 pt move down for Vandy & NC St.


Doc Bob's picks don't move the lines that much

[strictlywinners]

Tailed you today hope you are hot again

[pats3peat]

Youre the man. awesome win with iowa State. GL on the rest

[smoovethug]

Should have been a much better day if OkState and 'Bama didn't blow their games late. Still a nice job pags.

[imgv94]

2-1-2

Good day as far as I'm concerned.

[emat]

Could have been a huge day if it weren't for freaking OSU. Cost me a 25 to 1 parlay that I just threw down for fun (ISU M\L and KU -20). ISU was a large game for me however so I can't complain. Pags, you had these games right, luck just wasn't there today. Keep up the good work.

[icemantbi]

My wallet is a bit fatter tonight than it was this morning, and that all that counts.

Good job again pags!

[pags11]

2-1-2 w/l record on the week, +2.5 units

43-27-4 w/l record on the season, +39.5 units

[pags11]

thanks for the support guys...hope everyone did well today...on to next week...

[cashflow50]

pags..do you know whats up with kojak? jus a little concerned..he's usually on the forums at the beginning of the week..sorry for adding this in your thread..by the way nice week

[imgv94]

cashflow

You should email him at merchantsfirst at sbcglobal.net