Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Oct 13)

[Willie Bee]

Follow Fresno State -9½ at Idaho

Game Time: 10/13/2007 05:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Fresno State's ground attack and Idaho's poor passing game should decide this one. Back the Bulldogs as the favorites on the road at the Kibbie Dome against the Vandals.

The start of the WAC schedule has gotten the Fresno State Bulldogs to play at a higher level, and they’ll be looking to snag their third win in a row when they pay Moscow a visit and take on the Idaho Vandals in the Kibbie Dome.

Last week's barnburner of a win at Nevada was the Bulldogs' first road win of the season, and they’ll look to carry that momentum over this week and try to pick up back-to-back SU road victories for the first time since 2005. Head coach Pat Hill once again has a ground game with the emergence of frosh running back Ryan Matthews. He churned out 171 yards and 3 TDs last week vs. the Wolfpack, and overall, the team rushed for 307 yards which is by far their best output on the ground this season. With Idaho allowing opponents to rush for 156 YPG, more success is certain to come for the Bulldogs rush attack this week.

This will allow QB Tim Brandstater to pick his spots downfield, and take advantage of the Vandals secondary that’s allowed its opponents 259 YPG through the air. Idaho has had a heck of a time pressuring opposing QB's this season (6 sacks overall), and that spells trouble for them in this spot against a Fresno St. offense that has just started to find its rhythm.

On the defensive side of the ball, Fresno will have its hands full with Idaho RB Deonte Jackson, but they shouldn’t have much trouble containing a passing game that has only accounted for 194 passing YPG. The QB position is pretty much an afterthought, so Hill will bring eight into the box and force the Vandals to penetrate his defense with their below average passing game.

Fresno has made it a habit of beating the ever-living tar out of the Vandals over the years, as the last three meetings have seen them win by an average of 28 PPG. These teams are headed in completely different directions right now, so lay the points with the Bulldogs as they just have too much on both sides of the ball for Idaho to stay within the number.

Free Pick: Fresno State -9½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Boston College -13½ at Notre Dame

Game Time: 10/13/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

Notre Dame picked up their first win of the season last week, and look for that winning streak to stop at one. Back Boston College as the favorites in South Bend on Saturday.

The Fighting Irish finally erased the goose egg from their win column last Saturday. All the Dame needed was for UCLA to lose its starting quarterback in the first half and commit seven turnovers! In the 20-6 upset victory, Charlie's troops still managed to drop the yardage battle (282 to 140) and that fact has this writer concerned.

Technically speaking, the Irish couldn't be in a worse spot. Since 1980, game nine or sooner home dogs returning off back-to-back road dog ATS wins are a horrendous 13-32-1 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off back-to-back straight up wins. Notre Dame is locked into this ugly situation.

Also, underdogs or favorites of -6½ or less are a disturbing 29-48 ATS provided they won straight up as a road dog of +17 or more last. That's not the worst part. Home teams in this set that are battling an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage greater than .800 crash to a hideous 0-10 SU and ATS. Please note: Those 10 hosts lost by an average of 20.9 points per game.

Since the kickoff of the 2003 season, the Fighting Irish have struggled at home posting a soft 9-18 ATS record. In this situation matched up against a foe that owns a winning record, the Dame dips to a shocking 4-14 ATS!

The Eagles own an impressive 8-1 ATS mark in this series provided the Irish arrive off a SU and ATS win. Charlie's troops are a few years away from making any noise. Jeff Jagodzinski's BC kids are prepared to make a run at No. 1 right now. Take Boston College.

Free Pick: Boston College -13½ (-103)

[Willie Bee]

Back the Baylor Bears (+27 at the Kansas Jayhawks

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Kansas will win the game, but the Jayhawks will find it tough to cover what has grown to a four TD spread. Take the points and the Baylor Bears in this Big 12 contest.

Our Saturday afternoon college football selection is on the Baylor Bears plus the points over the Kansas Jayhawks.

The Bears come into Lawrence, Kansas, off a SU/ATS loss to Colorado, while KU is unbeaten with a 5-0 record. But since 1980, College Football teams with a 5-0 record are a dismal 5-18 ATS in Game 6 vs. conference foes, provided our 5-0 squad covered by 9+ its last game, and its foe is off a SU/ATS loss.

Last week, KU won 30-24 as a 3½-point underdog over K-State, while Baylor lost 43-23 as 8-point underdogs. Look for the Bears to stay close to the Jayhawks in a letdown game for Kansas. Take the points.

Free Pick: Baylor +27 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Play Louisville Cardinals (+10) at Cincinnati Bearcats

Game Time: 10/13/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Lenny Del Genio | sportspic.com

The Bearcats are off to their best start in over 50 years with their 6-0 record. But Cincinnati will struggle to cover much less win this one against the Louisville Cardinals.

Can Louisville really be this bad and can Cincinnati really be this good? Maybe, but if this game had been played in the season's first week, Louisville would have been the 10-point favorite!

Remember, Cincinnati was a three-point home dog on September 6 to Oregon State! There's no denying the great job Brain Kelly has done at Cincinnati in his first year. The Bearcats are now 6-0 and ranked No. 15 in the AP poll, the school's best start since going 8-0 in 1954. The Bearcats opened against fairly weak non-conference opposition, outscoring those opponents 232-53, in a 5-0 start.

However, last Saturday's 28-23 win at Rutgers was impressive. Kelly has opened up the offense at Cincinnati, as Wake Forest transfer QB Ben Mauck has completed 65.0 percent with 12 TDs and three interceptions. The running game adds nice balance at 185.8 ypg and the defense is top-notch, No. 5 in ppg (12.7) and the rush D allows just 85.0 ypg (2.8). The Bearcats lead the nation in takeaways with 25 and are tied with Florida Atlantic at plus-15 in TO margin.

On the other hand, Louisville enters this game 3-3. QB Brian Brohm is having his anticipated great season, completing 66.8% and averaging 402.5 ypg with a 20-4 ratio, but the defense ranks 99th in ypg (444.5) and 89th in ppg (30.7). Still, this number seems way off to me and I'm taking the points with Louisville.

Free Pick: Louisville +10

[Willie Bee]

Colorado State Rams -3½ versus Air Force Falcons

Game Time: 10/13/2007 05:30 PM -
By: Right Angle Sports | handicapper.net

Coming off a bad loss to San Diego State last week gives Colorado State more line value this Saturday. Back the Rams at home when they host the Air Force Falcons.

The Rams are now 0-5 and have lost 12 straight games dating back to last season. However, their only bad loss this year came last week vs San Diego State when they were upset as a double-digit favorite which has allowed us to get extra value in this spot.

In their first four games, Colorado State played very competitively vs quality opponents Colorado, Cal, Houston and TCU, coming just a few plays from going 4-0 ATS and 2-2 straight up. Their last game vs SDSU was their first as a heavy favorite and they seemed to lack some intensity. Windy conditions slowed down the passing game which had been the strength of the offense coming in. Senior QB Caleb Hanie had been quietly having a very solid season and I expect him to bounce back and play well this week.

The CSU defense has been weakened in recent weeks with the absence of starting free safety Klint Kubiak (ulcer) who has now missed three straight games, and starting strong safety Mike Pagnotta (ankle) has missed the last game and a half. Kubiak and Pagnotta were the top two returning tacklers on the team. There is a good chance at least one if not both will return this week.

I have not been impressed with Air Force this year. Their win over UNLV last week was much closer than the final score indicates. UNLV had more total yards but was stopped at the goal line once in the first half and a botched punt set up an easy Air Force score in the second half. Two weeks ago Air Force failed to get the job done vs a banged-up Navy defense despite it being the last chance for the senior class to beat the Midshipmen.

Long time CSU head coach Sonny Lubick is very well liked by players and I expect them to rally in support of him with a solid performance and badly needed win this week. Give the points.

Free Pick: Colorado State -3½ (½ Unit)

[Willie Bee]

Follow Michigan (-5) vs. Purdue

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

After getting off to an 0-2 start, Michigan has roared back to win their last four and will extend that streak to five this Saturday at home in Ann Arbor against the Purdue Boilermakers.

Michigan (4-2) takes a four-game winning streak into this contest against a Purdue (5-1) team that is in a let-down mode after losing to Ohio State 23-7 as 6½-point home dogs last week in what many Boilermaker fans believed was a good chance of pulling off an upset.

That emotional loss will not bode well on the Boilermakers' state of mind this Saturday at the Big House in Ann Arbor where they have lost 16 straight times since 1966. With that said, look for the Wolverines to take advantage of what I think will be a slow starting visiting team that has now lost 14 straight to ranked programs.

Final Notes & Trends: Purdue is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 October games and are 2-10 ATS over their last 12 on the road as 3½- to 7-point dogs. Play on Michigan.

Free Pick: Michigan -5 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Texas A&M Aggies, Texas Tech Red Raiders Over 69½

Game Time: 10/13/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Aggies' inability to stop the pass and the Red Raiders' struggles stopping the run should drive the final score well over the total when Texas Tech hosts Texas A&M.

The Aggies can’t be too psyched about paying Lubbock a visit this weekend considering they’ve been tarred and feathered the last two times they have visited the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech beat them 59-28 in Dennis Franchione’s first year at the helm back in ’03, and then followed that effort up with a 56-17 beat down in 2005. As much as I want to lay the points with Tech here, I can’t, since I believe the Aggies' ground attack will play a major role in deciding the victor of this contest.

That being said, I’ll look to the total and back the Over with both of these offenses having the upper hand on both stop units. It’s real simple fellas: A&M can’t defend against the pass and Tech can’t stop the run. Therefore, expect Aggie QB Stephen McGee and running backs Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson to run circles around Tech’s defense, while Raiders QB Graham Harrell will throw for 500+ yards and super frosh wide receiver Michael Crabtree will probably haul in four touchdowns and 200+ receiving yards.

This one should be very fun to watch, and the last team with the ball might just have the opportunity to win the game outright. As long as Franchione doesn’t call this game like he did at Miami, this ticket should be golden. Hit the Over as these teams take turns humiliating each other's stop unit.

Free Pick: Texas A&M-Texas Tech Over 69½ (-110)

[regularguy]

That's an excellent write up on Fresno State at Idaho. I agree completely, and will be on that one.

[Willie Bee]

Kent Flashes, Ohio State Buckeyes Under 49

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

There are strong Under tendencies for both Ohio State and Kent here, and the last time the Buckeyes faced a MAC foe, the game produced 22 total points. Go Under again.

While we feel that the Ohio State Buckeyes are overrated, their defense is still allowing just 7.2 points per game, and we do not expect much to change this week vs. another cupcake in the Kent Golden Flashes.

At the same time, the Buckeyes offense has been rather spotty this year except for one 58-point explosion vs. Northwestern, and even that effort was aided by turnovers and short fields. Ohio State has already faced one MAC opponent this year, and the end result was an easy Under in a 20-2 struggle vs. Akron.

Now Kent has displayed some ability while averaging 24.5 points per game, but they have never faced a defense that is this good either. In fact, the Flashes were held to just 13 points by Miami Ohio last week, so how are they going to reach double-figures here?

Finally, the Under is now 20-7 in the last 27 Ohio State games overall, as well as 13-6-1 in the last 20 Kent games, and we see both of those patterns continuing here.

Free Pick: Kent, Ohio State Under 49

[Willie Bee]

Penn State -7 versus Wisconsin

Game Time: 10/13/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The Badgers lost their first game last week, and now the Nittany Lions will extend that losing streak to two games. Play Penn State as home favorites Saturday against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin finally went down last Saturday at Illinois and that was a long time coming. I expect the Badgers to continue the losing here as they travel yet again, this time to an even more hostile environment.

Four of their last five games have been close games that could have gone either way, and the Badgers were fortunate to win three of those over UNLV, Iowa and Michigan St. The 14-game winning streak came to an end last weekend and that will be tough to recover from.

Penn St. did a number on Iowa last Saturday as it dominated from start to finish holding the Hawkeyes to just 194 total yards and eight first downs. 86 of those yards came on the lone Iowa touchdown drive as the Hawkeye’s longest drive in 10 possessions prior to that was 18 yards, all resulting in punts. The Nittany Lions are now in a revenge situation as they remember what Wisconsin did to them last season. Penn St. scored just three points, the lowest output in its last 38 games.

The Wisconsin offensive line struggled against Illinois and it needs a rushing game to be successful. Tailback P.J. Hill is far from 100 percent while Lance Smith-Williams, the team's second-string running back, doesn't travel with the Badgers. Quarterback Tyler Donovan has a great game against the Illini but losing receiver Luke Swan, the second-leading receiver with 25 receptions for 451 yards and two touchdowns, is a huge blow for the passing game. Penn St. is 10th in rushing defense and 20th in passing efficiency defense (fifth overall).

Wisconsin’s former strength is now its weakness as the defense is nowhere to be found. The Badgers defense has been porous much of the season and has given up 17 plays of 20 yards or longer in the past two weeks alone. Wisconsin allows 369 ypg which is eighth in the Big Ten, and the Badgers are last in the conference in red-zone defense as opponents have scored on 19 of 21 trips inside Wisconsin's 20-yard line. Wisconsin has allowed an incredible 591 rushing yards over the last two games (7.3 ypc).

Penn St. has to take advantage of that porous rushing defense which will also take some of the pressure off quarterback Anthony Morelli although he looked very good against the Hawkeyes last Saturday. Morelli completed 18 of 31 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown for the Nittany Lions as he looked more confident and engaged on the field and shook off negative plays better. The loss of Austin Scott stings but Rodney Kinlaw is a solid backup after rushing for 168 yards on 28 carries (6.0 ypc) against Iowa.

The Nittany Lions are calling this their biggest game of the season and an almost must-win situation. It is homecoming in State College and rarely does Penn St. play bad in front of the alumni. The Nittany Lions are 62-20-5 all-time and have won 36 of 41 homecoming games under head coach Joe Paterno. Beaver Stadium has turned into a house of horrors for the opposition as the Nittany Lions have moved their home record to 18-1 since the end of the 2004 season.

Penn St. is 32-8 ATS in their last 40 games after gaining 200 or more yards rushing in its previous game and after the Badgers recent problems, we could see it again. The recent play on both sides set up a solid situation favoring Penn St. Play against road underdogs after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games against opponent after a win by 17 or more points. This situation is 42-12 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being a whopping +26.2 ppg.

Free Pick: Penn State -7 (+104) 1½ Units

[Mr Handicapable]

Ahhhhh Wise Guy!

Good post! I love Fresno myself. Can't find any that I would play against. Total of 69.5 is a ton for a Texas A&M game but I agree that stops will be few and far between...ala....Navy/Pitt on Wednesday!

[Willie Bee]

Georgia Tech, Miami Under 42½

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

Neither the Yellow Jackets nor the Hurricanes have been consistent this season, especially on offense. Play under the total when Miami hosts Georgia Tech this Saturday.

Both teams have shown signs of brilliance this season along with some surprising losses. One thing that is a given is that both teams have solid defenses and for them to be successful the rest of the season, they must rely heavily on these squads.

That being said, this is a perfect setup for the under, assuming the offenses do not allow scoring to occur on defense or special teams. Miami offensive coordinator Patrick Nix coached at Georgia Tech the last five seasons and expect him to give tips to the Canes defense on how to stop the Jacket offense. Miami-21, Georgia Tech-17.

Free Pick: Georgia Tech-Miami(FLA) Under 42½ (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Side with Sooners (-10) vs. Tigers

Game Time: 10/13/2007 06:30 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Hard to believe it's Missouri and not Oklahoma entering this game undefeated, but after playing their way back into the BCS picture last week against Texas, side with the Sooners.

Our Saturday night college football selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK.

There will be 11 undefeated teams taking the field this weekend -- Hawaii on Friday, and 10 unbeatens on Saturday -- and the surprise is that this game's undefeated squad is Missouri and not Oklahoma. The Sooners fell two games back at Colorado, and that was our Big 12 Game of the Month (Colorado +23). And then last week, we went against Oklahoma again and got the gold when Texas covered as a 12-point underdog, losing to the Sooners by just seven points, 28-21.

But here, against an undefeated Mizzou team, let's step in and lay the wood with Oklahoma.

The Tigers are 5-0, and blew out Nebraska 41-6 as a 6½-point favorite. But college football teams off five or more wins are a dreadful 32-70 ATS if they covered the spread by 14 or more points in their previous game, and are now matched up against a .571 (or better) foe. Look for Oklahoma to drill Missouri.

Free Pick: Oklahoma -10 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Cornhuskers (-4) versus Cowboys

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

Coming off an embarrassing one-sided loss last Saturday, look for the Nebraska Cornhuskers to bounce back this week at home in Lincoln versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Nebraska will bounce back after getting embarrassed by Missouri last week. The Cornhuskers will win with the inspiration of their home fans at their side.

The home team is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings between the Cowboys and Cornhuskers. Nebraska is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against poor pass defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or higher. The Cornhuskers put the ball in the air a ton and will be able to move the ball at will against this weak Cowboys’ secondary.

Nebraska is 24-9 ATS in home games in October. The Cornhuskers are 15-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games. The Cornhuskers bounce back Saturday on their home turf. Bet Nebraska.

Free Pick: Nebraska -4 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Cash California Bears (-14) vs. Oregon State Beavers

Game Time: 10/13/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | procappers.com

Suddenly, the Bears are the class of the PAC-10 and looking to extend their 5-0 record. Chalk this one up to California when they host the Oregon State Beavers.

With USC losing last week, the 5-0 California Bears just got a boost that they weren’t even expecting as that loss by the Trojans opens the door for the Bears in the Pac-10 Conference race.

Cal will show you their excitement by doing what they have done at home all season, and that’s blow out their opponents. Expect a career day out of DeSean Jackson. He caught 11 passes for 161 yards, both career highs, and his first two touchdowns of the year two weeks ago at Oregon. After a bye week, Cal will be ready to take the field feeling nice and fresh.

The Bears win this one by three scores. Lay the points.

Free Pick: California -14 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Back the Bobcats (-4) vs. Eagles

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

After playing about as well as they could last week at Michigan and still losing, expect a letdown this Saturday for Eastern Michigan. Lay the points on the Ohio Bobcats on Saturday.

Eastern Michigan posted a respectable result in the Big House last week, losing by just 11 and posting over 300 yards of offense. The Eagles will be facing their third consecutive road game however, and it will be tough to match the focus after facing the state’s top program last week and putting together a solid effort.

Ohio suffered an ugly 31-10 loss to Buffalo last week, allowing over 250 rushing yards. That deficiency will be addressed this week for the Bobcats, and Eastern Michigan lacks the potent running game that could exploit any Ohio weaknesses.

The Bobcats have lost four consecutive games but this homecoming contest should be a great opportunity to get back on track against an opponent they have defeated in five of the last six meetings.

Free Pick: Ohio -4 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Northern Illinois +4 vs W. Michigan

Game Time: 10/13/2007 04:00 PM -
By: John Martin | procappers.com

Northern Illinois hasn't been impressive this season, but theur 8-2 ATS run against Western Michigan is impressive. Take the Huskies and the points Saturday versus the Broncos.

Northern Illinois has not been very impressive this season, but there is no reason for the Huskies to be receiving four points on their home turf this Saturday.

Western Michigan is just 2-4 on the season while giving up 47.3 points per game on the road. The oddsmakers have made the mistake of putting too much stock in the Broncos and now it’s time to capitalize on Northern Illinois.

The Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Western Michigan. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3½-10. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog.

Cash in with Northern Illinois as the underdog.

Free Pick: Northern Illinois +4

[Willie Bee]

Back Orange +17½ vs Scarlet Knights

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Rutgers is coming off back-to-back upset losses and could be caught looking ahead to Week 8 when they face South Florida. Take the points and Syracuse this Saturday at home.

Given the situation, I feel that this number is too big. The Scarlet Knights are coming off back-to-back losses and have a huge Thursday night game vs. South Florida on deck. They're already depressed about the back-to-back upsets and it will be easy to look past an opponent which they dominated last season.

That will be a mistake though as the revenge-minded Orange have already beaten Louisville (on the road!), proving they are capable of knocking off teams the caliber of Rutgers. This is also an extremely big game for the Orange. Not only is it their homecoming game but they have dropped back-to-back games in this series for the first time. Note that the Orange are still 16-4 the last 20 years though, including a 5-1 SU/ATS mark the last six times they were the hosts in this series.

Although their overall record is poor, the Orange are still very much alive in the Big East race. Granted, everything certainly hasn't been rosy. However, it's worth mentioning that the Orange special teams have been providing solid field position as their kick return unit ranks 14th nationally and first in the Big East. That's generally helpful when trying to cover a big number.

While the Orange got blown out by West Virginia last week, they played hard the entire way and head coach Greg Robinson was pleased with his team's effort: "All-in-all, I liked the intensity from the first play to the last play. If I'm not mistaken, the last play was a lost yardage play and there were about six people on that tackle. I also like the hitting that went on and that's something to build on. It inspired me, the way our players flew around to get to that football and it reminded me more so of our defense of two years ago, the 2005 year, even more than last year. I'm excited for our group. I think we can build on that..."

Robinson went on to say: "We're 1-1 in the Big East and we are going to have to win to stay in the fight. They are coming up to our place and we have to make the most of it. We met with the team Sunday after the game against West Virginia and we know we have our work cut out for us to get back on track, get on a winning track."

Look for the Orange to be the hungrier team on Saturday afternoon as the Knights get more than they bargained for and fall to 0-6 ATS the last six times they were laying points on the road. Consider taking the generous points with the home underdog.

Free Pick: Syracuse +17½

[Willie Bee]

Grab Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3) at Miami Hurricanes

Game Time: 10/13/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Dave Price | procappers.com

With Miami just 4-8 versus the spread in their last dozen, Georgia Tech and the points make the best play this Saturday when the Yellow Jackets visit the Hurricanes.

Miami endured its fourth against the spread defeat in five games last week. In ACC play, Miami is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12. Last week’s loss to UNC really hurts as the Hurricanes have a tough schedule remaining. I believe it throws them off course this week.

Georgia Tech has played well, but just came up a hair short against Virginia and Maryland or the Yellow Jackets could be 5-1. Georgia Tech is 2-0 SU and ATS versus Miami over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is the better team and it will prove to be so this week. Expect a defensive battle ultimately won by the Yellow Jackets.

Free Pick: Georgia Tech +3 (-110)

[onlooker]

Lenny Del Genio I like Cincinnati.

Larry Cook I also like Nebraska.

Ben Burns I also like Syracuse.