Matchup Edge

SECfan23 · 10-09-07, 02:42 PM

Found 2 examples: Wake FSU game

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And the USC UNC game. It shows the edge to Wake and USC.
Any thoughts?

strictlywinners · 10-09-07, 03:14 PM

There used to be a handicapping site called dukewins.com. This team of experts is awesome at basketball they even got written up in yahoo finance. They used to have this same mathcup feature on their site and then they did away with it for some reason. The matchup edge works probably about 52 percent of the time which is losing percentage. But what I discovered is that if your team has the edge and the public is going against the team with the edge it usually hit at about 61 percent. I used this for college basketball last year and it did very well good luck

strictlywinners · 10-09-07, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by SECfan23

I just discovered last week the Power Rating and Edge on all the matchup links for each game. The only team I saw that had a "edge" was Auburn and they destroyed Vandy last week. Does anybody know the Win/Loss record if you always played the team with the edge? Or maybe just in general how well it performs. That matchup link has some great data. I think Ive just been in the dark since the start of the season.

Also why these edges may help in your evaluation they should not be the only thing you base your pick on. One thing you must ask yourself espcially in the wakeforest game is if wake according to the power ranking should be a one point favorite then why is FSU favored by almost a touchdown. Remember the odds makers have the same power ranking tools that we have so if they see the power ranking should be wake minus 1 then why did they choose to make florida state such a heavy road favorite. I dont really have read on this game yet but i think they favored FSU by so much to get people off of FSU im leaning towards FSU in this game. I will wait to see where the money is going first though before i make my final selection

curious · 10-09-07, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by SECfan23

I just discovered last week the Power Rating and Edge on all the matchup links for each game. The only team I saw that had a "edge" was Auburn and they destroyed Vandy last week. Does anybody know the Win/Loss record if you always played the team with the edge? Or maybe just in general how well it performs. That matchup link has some great data. I think Ive just been in the dark since the start of the season.

We tried the edge plays for MLB and got slaughtered. OUCH. I wouldn't trust it.

SECfan23 · 10-10-07, 10:05 AM

Thanks for the input. Im looking for a system to follow and I guess betting on the "edge" plays wont be it. This season, ive bet on what i feel was the general consenus of the people on this site. That and the gamecocks. Betting on the gamecocks is the only one that has been successful for me. Any ideas on a good strategy or system?

strictlywinners · 10-10-07, 10:14 AM

If you are trying to come up with your own system I recommend that you just do your homerwork and limit your number of plays. When you start taking to many things thats when you lose cause many do not have the kind of bankroll that can support a big losing day.
If you just want to tail someone PAGS has a thread and he is very consistent. He give you between 5 to 10 games to play on any given weekend and so far he has had 3 winning weeks in a row. I really like allot of his plays this week.

Also there is another guy on here that figured out a chart. His name is NEP i really like what he is doing because it takes all the guess work out. His chart is more for the casual player though that wants to put limited amount of money on allot of games spread out across the board. Just remember never risk more then you are willing to lose and if you feel uncomfortable and have a chance to hedge take it. That way you will live to gamble another day.

Tonight take Navy with the points and on moneyline for half it is a pretty solid play to start of your week

SECfan23 · 10-10-07, 11:35 AM

Thanks for the help. After about an hour of reading about Neps system, I find it very interesting. Im sure there is no data on this, but it would be interesting to see how well one would do if you bet on the teams that pags pick that also score above 55% on neps chart.

Also, im all over the gamecocks again this week.

curious · 10-10-07, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by SECfan23

Thanks for the help. After about an hour of reading about Neps system, I find it very interesting. Im sure there is no data on this, but it would be interesting to see how well one would do if you bet on the teams that pags pick that also score above 55% on neps chart.

Also, im all over the gamecocks again this week.

You would have lost your shirt. I have been tracking neps chart. Using only plays > 60%. Loser so far. Note, I haven't been betting it, only tracking it.