Took OU at -10.5 the second the lines came out. As a UT fan, I never play big against my team... Except this time. I'm still depressed from our loss this past weekend, but this game has "joke" written all over it. Bob Stoops coming off a horrific loss vs. Mack Brown coming off a horrific loss. There's my analysis.
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I too took my chances with Texas +11 earlier this week Baba. I know the Sooners have that revenge motivation factor and all, but 11 points is a bit too much in this game.Comment -
I have OU winning as well pretty big as well. Texas really hasnt played very well since the Kansas State game last year.Comment -
The Colt McCoy era at UT took a pretty significant U-Turn when he was exposed against K. St. last year. If you don;t think Stoops has had his D-Linemen doing tip drills all week, you're nuts. And the sad thing is that UT's answer to the whole "McCoy throws the ball where it grazes helmets at the line while never diverting his eyes (and helmet) from his primary target" is simple to gameplan against, also. From what I understand (UT sources), they've been working on getting him out of the pocket where he can make plays without the threat of opposing D-linemen either tipping or just outright picking off balls. OU will have that scenario game-planned too. They'll be rolling coverage to the right as McCoy rolls right, rolling coverage left when Colt rolls left. UT's inability to pick up a blitz is just a glaring inadequacy lately. Our backs aren't chipping because they're simply not in position to chip, Finley (TE) is useless in blitz pickups and is a poor blocker in general, though he is a gifted receiver. If there is a prop for total sacks, I'll take the over, because OU should get 5-6 by themselves... The only trick left in Mack's bag is to actually rotate Chiles and McCoy, or at least leave Chiles out on the field for 15-20 snaps (backfield, lined out, whatever it takes to catch OU off-guard. I doubt that OU has gameplanned for Chiles as they've probably been preoccupied figuring out ways to exploit UT's main weaknesses (lack of QB-WR rapport, non-existent LB tackling, no coverage skills to speak of in the secondary, a running game that relies primarily on horizontal runs. Of course, UT will attempt to establish the running game with Charles, which would be fantastic if we weren't so damn reliant on a horizontal running attack. I'll TiVo the game, then come on here and break down our performance. I can probably tell you our first series will go something like this;
1st-10 Charles off-tackle left (considering our right side of the O-line is injured) for 1 yard.
2nd-9 McCoy short pass to Jones for 3
3rd-6 McCoy pass tipped at line or overthrown as he rolls out
4th- Punt
UT is just too easy to game plan for with the following problems ALL being applicable when discussing this team:
-horizontal running game
-no identity to our passing game, largely due to a QB with tunnel vision and a low release point (sadly McCoy isn't 6'5" or this wouldn't be so much of a problem)
-special teams coverage that just makes you cringe
-ZERO tackling out of the LB's, capped off by an inability to commit to the play, one way or another
-A legitimate NFL-caliber WR who we can't get the ball to (which will be compounded by the fact that Reggie Smith will be blanketing him this Saturday)
-no blitz-pickup
-a poorly coached, poorly motivated team in general
-DB's that can't cover (though at least they can tackle--unlike our LB's)
- Oh, and did I mention, WE ARE POORLY COACHED!!!
Bloodbath in Dallas: OU 38- TX 14 (and I'm being generous with that score).Comment -
It sounds like you're talking about A&M.
At least UT can dance..
http://youtube.com/watch?v=4US7L6ypRk4
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At least I know A&M won't completely out-coach UT. The A&M/UT game is always more volatile (in terms of attempting to cap it---just stay away like you'd stay away from Auburn-Alabama). With the OU-UT series, I've been fairly accurate every year since my Jr. year or so. I haven't felt this sense of impending doom since the Chrissy Simms era. I'll be hedging a tad on the UT ML parlayed with the over (the only way UT wins is by dominating special teams, getting a DST TD and/or a couple short fields from TO's, and basically outscore them. UT will need to score at least 35 to win this game... Anyone who has watched UT play can tell you that our starting LB corps may be the worst in the Big XII (yes, they're THAT bad).It sounds like you're talking about A&M.
At least UT can dance..
http://youtube.com/watch?v=4US7L6ypRk4
I've already dropped 4 units on OU -10.5, and I'm considering dropping 4 more. Then I'll hedge on the UT ML (small) and/or UT ML parlayed with the over (very small). I honestly can't believe how little talk this game has gotten on this board. Seems like a fairly easy game to cap (though it's tough to account for intangibles in rivalry games, particularly those on neutral fields) and the line seems favorable. I would have put it at -14 after UT got crushed last week. Books offering "futures" wagers on NCAAF Games of the Year (and such) had OU -10 BEFORE last Saturday... OU was caught overlooking Colorado. UT was completely undressed by a visiting K. State team (that was supposed to serve as a revenge game) and weaknesses were pinpointed and exploited. With the only UT covers coming against Rice (on the road) and a severely overrated TCU team (at UT), I can't believe we're only getting 10.5 (now 11).
Can you tell how much I'm NOT looking forward to this game...Comment -
bumping in case the old schoolers didn't see my reasoning for playing against UT...Comment -
i like Texas in this one. go longhorns.Comment -
Will either squads cheerleaders show any skin at the Red River shinding? Need someone to root for.Comment -
Prediction
OU 47
UT 21Comment
