General discussioon thread about this week's games

[BuddyBear]

Let's get a discussion going about this week's games. Any game you want to talk about let's use this thread to raise issues and try to find winners. Hopefully we can find some winners in this section.

So far, I like KSU as many others have pointed out. I am little bit concerned about how low the line is. Reminds me a lot of the Oregon/Oregon State game from last year where you had an instate rivalry that has been dominated by the home team. Oregon State won by either 1 or 2...i fogot but in any event, it didn't cover the -3 I had.

Any other thoughts or comments about the games this week?

[pags11]

buddy,

I completely agree with your thoughts on the KSU game...the game just screams "stay away" to me...

[TheGambler]

my thoughts are that KU has not seen a defense as quick as what kstate brings. however, kstate's offense did only score 2 td's against texas and the general public will not realize this. i'm sure Mangino (ku coach) has a game plan to kick away from Jordy Nelson and Rossman. however, i do feel that the teams are somewhat evenly matched and there will be a few special team plays that will favor the home team, as it always does. I say get on kstate while it's still at 3 but I wouldn't play it for much if the line gets higher. i think by the end of the week it will be 4 or 5.

[BuddyBear]

something just is not right with this line......I withdrew my offer from MB after some consideration. If it goes back down to -2.5 or something i might reconsider but just a gut feeling about this one....maybe the oddsmaker is assuming a big letdown...i don't know but this game is eriely similar to last year's Oregon/Oregon State line.

[bmac]

Buddy what do you make of the Illinois/Wisconsin game? The line in that one seems to be strange as well.

[BuddyBear]

Buddy what do you make of the Illinois/Wisconsin game? The line in that one seems to be strange as well.

Illinois is the superior team...not by a wide margin though. The problem is that Illinois is just now learning how to win while UW is already there and that may come into play I suspect. Not to mention sometimes the Illinois in-game coaching is suspect while UW is better at that. But so far, almost every game UW has underachieved in and and has looked bad in the process....I know they are overrated but this could be a situation where they do well in. I am not going to play it (I think) But personally, I see a pretty good match with Illinois winnning by 6-14 pts....but you never know. I'll be posting my plays either tonight or tomorrow.

[pags11]

I think there are two games where a side I would have originally is priced to perfection...one of the games is Illinois, as I think the line should be more like PK...the other game is Wyoming...I thought Wyoming would come out as at least a FG dog, but to be laying points to TCU has priced me out of the game...remember that you can have a strong side, but if the oddsmaker is shading to that side, then sometimes it becomes a no play...just my thoughts....

[EBone]

Got some early leans here:


Cincinnati over Rutgers: I believe that we are seeing a change of the guard before our eyes in the Big East. Cincy and South Florida appear to me to be the best in a very strong Big East all of a sudden.

Kentucky over South Carolina: Kentucky continues to get no respect. I think the wrong team is favored here.

Georgia over Tennessee: Georgia, to me, is the better team. UT plays better at home but Richt is no stranger to beating UT at Rocky Top.

Arizona State over Washington State: This team is a Mack truck. I thought before the season AZ State would be better but they are more than better. They are a monster right now. I'll see if I can hop on board this train before it runs out of juice.

Penn State over Iowa: Penn State a good home team and I'm afraid Iowa just doesn't have the horses this year. I love Farentz but this is a pretty decent number for the Nitany Lions at home.




E

[BuddyBear]

I am not so much sold on Cinc right now...maybe I should be and if they beat Rutgers on the road I will be. Keep in mind, that Cinc has beat a D1-A school, Oregon State, Miami (OH), Marshall, and SDSU. True, they've won convincingly but conference play on the road could be a different story. The caliber of competition is going to get much much tougher real quick. I'd lean to Rutgers at -2.5 but at -3.5 I don't have much of an opinion.


I would have loved to see UK bigger dogs, but at +3.5 with their defense (which is improved but still mediocre) I have a hard time backing them on the road. They have Woodson and certainly this looks like a special year in Lexington. Slight lean to UK but not strong enough to play it.

No opinion whatsoever on the UGA/UT game...actually my opinion is that I am going to sit back, order some food and watch this game. Should be very fun....

Agree on ASU. WSU is on fade alert right now. They've underachieved and playing at home I don't think will help. I wouldn't be surprised if they covered but I can't back this team right now...one more loss and they are gonig to quit if they haven't already.

Not sure about this last game. These are 2 pretty defensive oriented team and Iowa has dominated this series for a long time now.....but boy Iowa has looked real bad this year and PSU is starting to unravel. Already 0-2 in the B-10 losing to UW and Indiana at home badly....losing to ISU on the road and struggling with a bad NIU team doesn't give me much confidence in Iowa. But Morreli just doesn't seem to be very good but at home he should have a slight edge. PSU actually falls into a strong system play this weekend (along with Nebraska and Wisconsin) but i don't feel confident backing either of these teams.

[EBone]

BB, I meant to tell you congrats on your ULL play last weekend. I thought that was good analysis and I did play it very small just for fun. Thanks for the pizza money!!!!


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[pags11]

ebone,

for an offense that can throw nothing but picks and fumble the ball, you feel 8-9 points is a "fair" number vs. an outstanding defense?...interesting...

as far as Cincinnati goes, I'm as impressed with them as any team I've watched this season...that being said, 3 points doesn't leave much margin for error vs. Rutgers...

[EBone]

pags11,

I think you are talking about Penn State above against Iowa. My guess is that Iowa doesn't score much @ Penn State. It is indeed possible that this game could be very similar to the Wisky game which would be grind it out and low scoring. I just don't think the Iowa offense has enough talent on that side of the ball to score much. 17 max for their point total in my opinion. I think Penn State gets back on the winning track after 2 heartbreaking losses @ Michigan and @ Illinois. It has always seemed to me that Morelli is a totally different QB at home than he is on the road. I'd be interested in seeing his career splits between home and away. I am hoping the turnovers you reference get toned down in this game being at home.

As far as Cincy goes, I just see Rutgers as being a middle of the road Big East team. The Big East is certainly greatly improved but I don't believe Rutgers is Top 3 in the Big East. Could be wrong but I think Cincinnati is Top 2 in the Big East. I'll probably be playing the moneyline on Cincy Saturday. Cincy looks real hungry to me. I'm not much on their QB but the rest of their squad looks real good to me.

I wish you luck on your Iowa play.


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[pags11]

ebone,

interesting you say that regarding Morelli, I just think if a guy isn't a good QB, he's not a good QB...is Andre Woodson better at home than he is on the road? not really...Graham Harrell? nope...Colt Brennan?...not that I can see...it's too bad really because I think PSU has three pretty good receivers...

I noticed you didn't mention much about the fumbling issues of the PSU running backs...

yes, I do see this being a grind-it-out type of game and with Iowa you will always get good special teams play, which could be the difference in covering or not covering this one...

GL to you as well...