Week 6 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

[austintx05]

10-9-1 so far on the week with Boise tonight. The push went down as a W for me so I went 11-9. Not bad after an 0-3 start to the weekday games.

Those heavy home favorites are in a downward spiral right now. They haven't come through the last 2 weeks. They will start to rebound. I don't think anyone saw that Stanford upset happening though, what a wacky year so far.

I will add my bowl game data to the Week 7 picks.

I'll try to have them up tonight but the Boise game will delay it a bit. Hopefully will have a good day in NFL again.

good job buddy...how do you track pushes on your chart?

[nep1293]

good job buddy...how do you track pushes on your chart?

The push doesn't alter any of the numbers so I just throw it away, I keep track of them but they don't serve any purpose for my numbers.

I saw the Texas Tech line at -24.5 all week, it was only at -25 for a few minutes. So anybody who bet that game should have won. It was a crappy push too, Tech was up 42-3 with a few minutes left when Iowa St got the garbage points.

[BuddyBear]

I am sorry NEP....I just don't see any theoretical value to this system right now. If there is not an explanation to what andwhy you are observing then it is most likely due to chance/random noise. If it is working, it is working but I can't identify any systematic pattern to the results.

I think what you need to do this offseason is to try to formulate a theoretical explanation for the results. This way you can discard what isn't working, tweak certain propositions of the method, and amplify the part of this system that is working for you. That is the best way to develop this system and make it more reliable.

Good luck....

[nep1293]

I am sorry NEP....I just don't see any theoretical value to this system right now. If there is not an explanation to what andwhy you are observing then it is most likely due to chance/random noise. If it is working, it is working but I can't identify any systematic pattern to the results.

I think what you need to do this offseason is to try to formulate a theoretical explanation for the results. This way you can discard what isn't working, tweak certain propositions of the method, and amplify the part of this system that is working for you. That is the best way to develop this system and make it more reliable.

Good luck....

It is a strange system, I'll give you that. But I do think there are patterns in these results.

I'll try to explain my POV again.

Using examples from last week.

These were 58.79% according to my system
Tulane @ Army (-6.5)
Nebraska @ Missouri (-6.5)
Idaho @ San Jose St (-6.5)
UNLV @ Air Force (-6)

My theory is that these games are identical in the minds of the oddsmakers. The names of the teams are not important.

Home -6/-6.5 has been played 120 times over the last 5 years with the home team covering 70 times.

So now plug the teams back in.
Hypothetically, lets say that Nebraska and Missouri played each other each of the last 120 days. Missouri has covered the spread in 70 of the 120 games. If they are playing game 121 tomorrow, wouldn't Missouri be the better bet in that game? That's all I'm really doing.


The way I'm picking games is really no different than someone seeing that Team X is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Team Y, and then betting on Team X. They're just trying to roll with the trends and that is what I'm doing.


I'm sure there are flaws in my system, but I am winning a lot more this way than when I'd pick the games w/o any help.

[austintx05]

makes sense to me

based on the opening number, linesmakers set are to entice action certain ways....

i was leaning clemson over va tech last week, but i was thinking 3.5 or less....well it opened 4.5 and was bet up and you see the result....