Week 5 Plays

[EBone]

For the year, I'm at 23-18-1 (+2.50 units). I'm actually going to be playing a lot of games this week (a little more than I'm actually comfortable playing) but I figure you can't win if you don't belly up and throw the money on the table. At the time of this writing, here are my 9 booked games for this weekend:


Arkansas State (-4.5) over Memphis
Indiana (+11) over Iowa
Buffalo (+15.5) over Ball State
Auburn (+18) over Florida
UTEP (+1.5) over SMU
Baylor (+16.5) over Texas A&M
New Mexico (+5.5) over BYU
Louisana Tech (+12.5) over Fresno State
Troy (-13) over UL-Monroe

(ALL GAMES ABOVE 1.1 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT)

Unbelievably, I still have a bunch I'm pondering. Will probably wait until gameday to make decisions on the following:

Duke over Miami-Fla (Want to play this badly; that 4th road game in a row for Duke is making me hesitant)

UConn over Akron (UCONN is clearly the better team; don't know how motivated they are for this one)

Houston over East Carolina (ECU defense is not good; Houston offense is real good)

Ohio over Kent (I hate MAC road favorites; this even started out as Ohio being favored and Kent was bet to the favorite, that smells real fishy to me)

Purdue over Notre Dame (Don't need to beat a dead horse on this one; I think the question is can Purdue's defense keep ND's offense in check in this game)

Miami-OH over Syracuse (Can't understand how Syracuse is favored over anyone)

Pittsburgh over Virginia (Think Pitt can keep this one very close; UVA has played 2 decent games in a row, don't think UVA is consistent enough to roll 3 decent games in a row)

Cincinnati over San Diego State (Cincy is very good; if they prove they can take care of business in this one, Big East teams need to take heed)

Kansas State over Texas (K-State D should keep Texas in check; but can K-State score much?)

Washington over USC (1st road PAC 10 game for USC; Washington should be game for a fight on National TV)

UAB over Tulsa (have lots of indicators pointing towards UAB; if Tulsa D is as bad as it looked against Oklahoma, this could be a shootout and those points look tempting)

Utah State over Utah (interstate rivalry; take the points).

Northwestern over Michigan (Jury still out on Mallett; Michigan hasn't played a road game yet...NW has looked awful but I think this game sets up well for the Wildcats)

Florida Atlantic over Kentucky (Letdown City for UK; Fla Atlantic is good enough to make this interesting even if UK wasn't in a letdown situation)


Good luck to everyone this weekend.



E

[BuddyBear]

What's the logic behind LaTech...i was actually seriously considering Fresno in that game.

[bigboydan]

I'm really liking your UTEP and you Baylor plays Ebone.

[EBone]

What's the logic behind LaTech...i was actually seriously considering Fresno in that game.

BB, I envision this La Tech-Fresno game as a grind it out type game in the 1st half and opening the flood gates in the 2nd half. I understand that Fresno has a lot more passing yards than they do rushing yards but I think those stats are a little skewed considering the way they had to come back against A&M after playing a horrid 1st half and the comeback, hurry up type offense they needed to run after Oregon just handed it to them.

La Tech should be able to run the ball on them. This is a key point to my wager. If La Tech can't run the ball on Fresno, then it is liable to get ugly. I think La Tech can do run it though.

I think, at Pat Hill's core, he really wants to run the ball if he can. Having looked at the 2007 stats, you would think that Fresno could pass on La Tech. However, I think during off weeks coaches go back and work on things that they know they are weak at. I think, especially in the 1st half, Fresno is going to be very methodical and try to sustain drives with their running game. If the game is a grind it out in the 1st half as I propose, I think this could be very, very tight and low scoring in the 1st half. I envision a lead for La Tech at halftime. If that happens, Hill will open it up in the 2nd half. Brandstater will need to lead them up and down the field. I'm not so sure he can do that on a regular basis.

Plus, I have a few statistical indicators that point to Louisana Tech. Fresno also has 8 turnovers after 3 games and La Tech has 5 turnovers after 3 games. I view their schedules pretty equal although I think the best defense either has played is Oregon.

If you like Brandstater, then maybe a play on Fresno is warranted. But I'm not sold on him. I'll take my chances with La Tech and the points.

Good luck, though, however you choose to play it.




E

[EBone]

Adding:

Ohio U +3 (1.2 units to win 1 unit)
Northwestern +17 (1.1 units to win 1 unit)


Still contemplating Washington, UAB, Utah State and Florida Atlantic. All other games I was contemplating moved the other way and are no plays for me now.


Good luck to everyone today.



E

[BuddyBear]

Looks like a strong card....

[EBone]

(6-5) for +0.40 units....a lot of coulda, woulda, shoulda's but considering how it was looking at one point, I'll take the final result.




E

[onlooker]

I was with you on Northwestern +17, but I would of liked to see them win outright.

Any positive is a good day.

[BuddyBear]

Another positive week....keep it up Ebone.