1. #1
    Mike2332
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    Tar Heels Big This Week

    N.C. -8 2U
    Old Dominion

    Rarely do I play against a home dog but I cannot pass up a talent mismatch like this with a single digit line.....

    Old Dominion simply is just not a threat on offense this year after losing QB David Washington....There offense was built around him last year....Not only did he throw the ball well 31 TD / 5 INT but the threat of him throwing opened up the run allowing for big seasons for the Monarchs RB'S AVG over 5YPC......


    The Old Dom offense has not looked near as potent in their first 2 games VS rather weak opponents in FCS Albany and U-Mass....Their defense has looked solid but they have not faced an offense like this since last SEP when they went up against NC State and gave up 49


    The Tar Heels have gone up against 2 great offenses in CAL and LOU and have a taken a beating......Their defense though is not as bad as it seems......Right now they are ranked almost dead last in YDS allowed but a game vs a weak non power 5 offense will help to fix those numbers.

    On offense the N.C. passing game keeps humming along....Jacoby Brisset, Mitch Trubisky now FR Chazz Surratt is slinging the ball around back there like its nothing - 70% COMP rate 3 TDS / 0 INTS......Even EX LSU QB Brandon Harris looked good VS Louisville backing up last week.........Regardless of who starts Surratt or Harris - the Heels should put up 30+


    I like NC by 17 +


    I seen the line has jumped up to 10...Still value here

  2. #2
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH
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    First, where did you get -8? If you are going topost lies that are not even close to the current line, let us know when and where you got that line. Next. You are going to take a team that has NOT won a game, lost both games at home, one to Pac 12 Bottom Feeder Cal, and has a very good chance of not qualifying for a bowl game and give 8 points or more against a team who is 2-0, and has a solid defensive secondary. Now there is n doubt that UNC should win this game, but with all the internal problems this team and school are having, this is a very dangerous wager. Pass.

  3. #3
    Mike2332
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    The line was -8 yesterday.......Lines come out on Mondays - not wednesdays

  4. #4
    Mike2332
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    I also posted that it moved up to 10 overnight

  5. #5
    Gamblinmann
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike2332 View Post
    The line was -8 yesterday.......Lines come out on Mondays - not wednesdays
    It came out at -7.5 Monday at oddsmakers. Don't worry about that moron. He is a sick person who gets off screwing with everyone. I bitc& slapped him so bad proving he was a liar over and over again. It's best to ignore him as I believe most of the guys in this forum know he is a complete clown who provides no value to handicapping.

  6. #6
    Mike2332
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    First, where did you get -8? If you are going topost lies that are not even close to the current line, let us know when and where you got that line. Next. You are going to take a team that has NOT won a game, lost both games at home, one to Pac 12 Bottom Feeder Cal, and has a very good chance of not qualifying for a bowl game and give 8 points or more against a team who is 2-0, and has a solid defensive secondary. Now there is n doubt that UNC should win this game, but with all the internal problems this team and school are having, this is a very dangerous wager. Pass.

    YES, Im taking UNC in this particular match-up because those circumstances led to this line value.........I could careless if they dont qualify for a bowl game at the end of the season.....You only ask yourself 1 question - is it more likely than not the team you are wagering on can cover the spread? Lets look at Old Dominion 1st.

    Week 1 - Albany......Albany is a middle of the pack FCS team......O.D. were 23 PT favorites.....O.D. won 31-17 in a fairly competitive game where they only outgained Albany by 10 YDS - 285 - 275 YDS

    Week 2 @U-Mass......U-Mass is among the worse FBS teams out there......They won started out 0-2 and won 2 games all of last season.
    O.D. won 17-7 in another competitive game.......YDS gained were close and turnovers were equal.

    UNC

    Week 1 CAL.....UNC was a 12 PT Fave against CAL a 5 win PAC with a high powered offense.....UNC lost by 5 in a close game that went back and forth

    Week 2 LOU......UNC went in as a 12 PT home dog vs a very good Louisville team.....UNC lost 47-35....They were destroyed by the Heisman trophy winner who accounted for 500 YDS by himself.


    Now you can get a better idea where both teams stand.....Its important to remember right off the bat UNC is clearly a much better team with much more talented players at every position....They were an 8-4 ACC team the year before who beat FL ST and Miami........In their first 2 games they showed they are still very capable on offense putting up 30+ in both games..........On defense they did struggle.......But its more than fair to say the went up against very good offensive opponents including the Heisman trophy winner....

    Old Dominion held on 2 win against 2 very weak opponents........Read back in my original thread where I stated the importance of their starting QB from last season graduating.......Without him its going to be very difficult for O.D. to score enough points to cover this spread.

    Its is fair to say that O.D. is in their secondary like you mentioned......Do you think the are better than the Louisville defense that UNC put up 30 on?

    This is a great match up because there is no real threat of an offense for UNC to stop.......Its a great match-up because UNC did average 32 PTS a game in the ACC and are picking up where they left off.

    Its a great match-up because the linemakers are giving O.D. a lot of respect with the line (now at 10) despite playing very very weak competition.





    BDHQ......There is a lot more to capping than strictly looking at win and loss records......Or looking at Bowl eligibility chances ( thats actually irrelevant ) .......Now maybe your right, maybe O.D. comes out and plays head to head with UNC and covers the line

    But what is more likely..........Can you really say UNC is a garbage team after 2 games.


    Its not enough to just look at standings - level of competition and looking inside the box scores are super important....If you stick with it you will catch on.

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