Pags' Plays 9/29

[pags11]

all plays for 3 units...

Mississippi St. +14.5
Duke +23.5
Michigan St. +7.5
North Carolina +17.5
Baylor +17
New Mexico +7
Maryland +14.5

write-up to come later this week...

[Wassymac]

Great job last week pags. Thanks for the plays and best of luck on the week ahead

[louisvillekid]

damn, you jumped on these early. GL

[pags11]

wassymac,

thanks and GL to you this week as well...

louisiville kid,

yeah, I'm usually around my computer on Sunday afternoons when they come out...

[imgv94]

pags is hitting stride watch out.

GL Mr.Encyclopedia

[shrax4]

Right now New Mexico is only +5.5 and Baylor is +16.5, would you still play them like this?

[tblues2005]

Pags Do you like Ohio State giving the points against a terrible defense that Minnesota has? Do you like Kentucky giving the points also?

[BuddyBear]

Coach, do you think Duke might be tired now playing their 4th straight road game and a bit deflated after a game they played well in against Navy but lost in OT?

[imgv94]

pags,

How many points do you think Purdue is going to put on ND?

[onlooker]

I am not on or against you on any of those Pags.

Good luck this week.

[Aces]

Pags your Dog hunting this week.

Michigan St. +7.5 Love it

Maryland +14.5 Like this pick as well but your shorting yourself its at 16 now.

Mississippi St. +14.5 Like this one as well SC only beat LA Laf by 14 I think Sly Croom can keep this one close.

Duke +23 1/2 You'll have to explain this one I cant see it UCon beat Duke by 31 Miami beat Marshall by 28

North Carolina +17.5 To close to call for me but Good luck

[pags11]

imgv,

I'm hoping so...just starting to get a feel here and am hoping I can keep it up...

shrax,

as long as you can find +6 I'd play New Mexico, 5.5 I still like but I made the game six and wanted at least that...I feel Baylor at +15 or more is still a good play...

tblues,

no on Kentucky for sure...I have a pretty good feel for this team and they are pretty banged up after the Arkansas game...I don't feel this is the time to play them...as far as Ohio St. goes, I feel like they are playing the best football in the Big 10 right now, but that's a steep price to pay for them on the road in the Metrodome (no matter how bad Minny is right now)...I recommend no plays on both of them...

buddy,

I knew you were going to ask me that...I know that there were many that thought Ball St. being on the road for their third straight road game would lead to a blowout, but we saw what happened there...I think this Duke team has a lot of fight still left in them...

imgv,

I'm saying like 38-42 regarding Purdue's points...

aces,

not sure how much you've followed my picks or write-ups so far this year, but I've been right on the line moves about 75% of the time (which I feel is worth the risk of playing games early, especially when they are at numbers I consider key)...specifically regarding the Maryland game, twice yesterday it went down to 13 and 13.5 respectively...in between one of those dips I wanted 14.5 and when I saw it I made the play...in your opinion, is 16 really a key number in college football? (say compared to 3, 4.5, 7, 10, 13, 14?)...

[DrLuck]

pags11,
what's your feel on northwestern? Think their spread offense will still give Michigan fits?

[DrLuck]

Also was leaning Cal if i see a 6... Good or bad idea

[taurus]

good luck,pags
you play early. I play late.
So I have no opinions yet.
Oregon State missed 2 pt conversion cost me double last week. I had 11 1/2, and I had 12 in the Prick contest.
Which gave a push on my BB.
Otherwise would have been 5-0 and up $ 100.

[EBone]

pags,

Love the New Mexico and Baylor bets.

Baylor will keep it close and New Mexico should win in my opinion.

Good luck to you.



E

[imgv94]

pags,

What is the meaning of life?

[pags11]

dr. luck,

obviously, Michigan has struggled vs. the spread offense this season and they are off a big win vs. Penn. St...I do think this team has played well with Mallett at QB and is starting to get some of their mojo back...to be honest, I just don't like this year's Northwestern team (I mean Bacher's OK and Sutton when healthy is an extremely talented back, but they seem to lack playmakers at the receiver position), and more importantly I haven't been very impressed with head coach Fitzgerald's in-game coaching...that all being said, I don't really have a strong opinion on this one...

as far as the Cal game goes, I believe the line move in this game is correct...if the game were to get to +7 I'd think (and I stress think) there is some value in Cal, but you are talking to a guy that is 0-3 betting against Oregon this year, and I don't care to get beat by them again the rest of the season...

taurus,

thanks...unfortunately, you should have cashed that game easily if it wasn't for the the 5 INT's thrown by Canfield...keep up the good picking my friend...

ebone,

thank you...I'm thinking so too, although I recommend trying to see if the line goes back to +6 in the New Mexico game if you haven't played it already (although I'm not sure it will get there)...glad to hear you feel similiar though...

imgv,

for me it's pretty simple bro...make a bunch of money doing something you love...bang broads (girlfriend or multiple ones you date)...bet on college football and college basketball...watch a lot of movies and listen to music...all of that will lead to happiness...

[bmac]

I am with you on Baylor and Michigan State.... Hope we cash on these ones

BOL

[pags11]

bmac,

glad we are on MSU together...GL to you this weekend...

[pags11]

am working on my write-up now...will post it shortly...

[mv09]

was the fact that they are all dogs a coincidence?

[imgv94]

was the fact that they are all dogs a coincidence?

I'd like pags to be more open minded myself. He loves to bet dogs all day and night.

Actually he is really good with favorites. I wish he would consider them more often.

[nevadaside]

GL to you too this weekend pags.
Looks like you're runnin a really nice card.

Just curious, you leave USF alone because you don't like the weekday games or just not a game you'd play period?

[pags11]

Hello board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Mississippi St. +14.5

Mississippi State comes into this game playing some pretty good football, especially on defense. They won impressively at Auburn and save their second half performance vs. LSU have been extremely stingy in allowing points. RB Anthony Dixon leads their offense and is one of the more underrated backs in the SEC. They will rely heavily on him in this one. Another important factor to note is that the change at the QB position has been a positive one for MSU. Josh Riddell probably should have been the guy at the beginning of the season, but had to serve a suspension. South Carolina is having some issues with their football team right now. They are down three defensive starters, including All-SEC performer Jasper Brinkley. They will also be starting freshman QB Chris Smelley replaces Blake Mitchell. His skill set is better than Mitchell’s, but he doesn’t have near the experience that Mitchell does. I anticipate the ol’ ball coach utilizing RB’s Boyd and Davis and playing ball control football. South Carolina has struggled with their run defense of late, particularly due to their slew of injuries. I’m going with Mississippi St. and the points in this one.

Duke +23.5

This Duke team is really playing some good football of late. They battled Virginia three weeks ago, beat Northwestern two weeks ago and gave Navy one heck of a game last week. The main reason for their turnaround has been the play of sophomore QB Thadius Lewis. I can’t stress how important the QB position (along with the head coach) comes into play in handicapping college football. Lewis is extremely accurate and also very mobile. Watching tape of him, I feel on of the best thing he also does, is execute his play fakes extremely well. This draws the linebackers in and allows him to get his receivers one on one against the defensive backs. He has a number of playmakers at his disposal, led by WR’s Eron Riley and Jomar Wright (also watch out for RB Ronnie Drummer, he’s a speed burner that can make big plays). This Duke team does have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball, which they are going to need against a quick Miami team. QB Kyle Wright does a good job managing the game for Miami, but they rely heavily on their running game. Javarris James has got the majority of the carries, but they will also work in Greg Cooper. It will be important for Duke’s offense to take what the Miami defense gives them. If they can do so, they will keep their defense off the field in spurts and also should be able to put up some points. I’m taking Miami and the points here.


Michigan St. +7.5

Say what you want about Michigan State’s undefeated record, but the bottom line is this is a much more disciplined football team than in previous years. Under John L. Smith, they always had the talent, but they never could put it all together. However, Mark Dantonio has put an emphasis on defense and the running game, and it appears to be working. This team seems to be buying into his system. RB’s Javon Ringer and Jehuu Calcrick lead the MSU rushing attack. Ringer is more of an explosive runner, whereas Calcrick is the pound it between tackles back. QB Brian Hoyer is extremely efficient and makes good decisions with the football. His main two receiving threats are WR Devin Thomas and TE Kellen Davis. Michigan St. has one of the better defensive lines in the country, as shown by the amount of sacks they’ve racked up so far this season. Wisconsin has really struggled with protecting Tyler Donovan, although their blocking on their running game has been sufficient. Teams are keying on TE Travis Beckum, and Donovan has had problems finding his receivers consistently. I think that this will be another hard fought game between two well-coached Big Ten teams. I’m taking Michigan State and the points yet again.


North Carolina +17.5

So everyone is making a big deal about North Carolina getting blown out last week against USF. Personally, I thought it was a pretty bad spot for them vs. an extremely talented football team in USF. Virginia Tech is not the same caliber team as USF, plus it’s a conference game. I really like Butch Davis’s young team and like that he gets them to play hard on a weekly basis. QB T.J. Yates is a good young QB and has a trio of talented receivers to throw to in Hakeem Nicks, Brooks Foster and Brandon Tate. Johnny White has carried the load at RB. It will be important for the North Carolina defense to limit big plays from Virginia Tech’s young QB Tyrod Taylor. While very talented, he’s still very young and is prone to making some bad decisions. Virginia Tech has had some problems establishing their running game consistently this year, as RB Brandon Ore had just 25 yards on 10 carries last week. If North Carolina can withstand the early onslaught from Virginia Tech, this could turn out to be a very interesting ball game.

Baylor +17

This might sound a bit odd, but Baylor really impressed me last week going up to Buffalo and handling them rather easily. They are now 3-1 on the season (with their only loss being at TCU) and is another team playing with a good deal of confidence heading into this game. The biggest thing that Baylor has turned around has been their defense, namely against the run. They will have their hands full this week against Texas A&M’s run game, but Guy Morris has put together a very scrappy unit. Offensively, Baylor is led by QB Blake Szymanski, who took over the reigns towards the end of last year. The experience he gained over that period of time is starting to pay dividends as he’s really played well this season. Baylor’s run game is keyed by experienced RB Brandon Whitaker, who’s also extremely talented at catching the ball out of the backfield. Baylor has five receivers with over ten catches so far this season, so it’s hard to key on just one guy in their offense. Texas A&M truly is a puzzling team. They have a great deal of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but their game plan often times doesn’t make sense. Baylor will need to key on RB’s Lane and Goodson. If they can contain the A&M running game and try to force Stephen McGee into third and longs, and or stall drives, they’ve got an excellent chance to hang tough in this game. I'm taking Baylor and the points in this one.


New Mexico +7

I’ve followed this New Mexico team very closely and have liked what I’ve seen from them so far this year. Two weeks ago they went into Tuscon and beat Arizona pretty convincingly. This is a program that’s ready to take the next step. They are extremely well coached and have an excellent home field advantage, especially in in-conference games. QB Donovan Porterie has really matured and is leading an extremely explosive offense. RB Rodney Ferguson is a workhorse and knows how to find the end zone. One of the most underrated parts of New Mexico’s offense is their receiving corp., led by seniors Marcus Smith and Travis Brown. Smith has missed practiced this week due to the death of his mother, but all reports I read have said he will play and I expect him to play well. BYU is a different team on the road. They rely heavily on their passing game and QB Max Hall has had more of a propensity of turning the ball over in BYU’s road games thus far this year. I think this game will be a slugfest deep into the fourth quarter and New Mexico’s home field could end up being a big factor in the end. I’ll go with New Mexico and the points yet again here.


Maryland +14.5

Yep, Maryland blew the game against Wake last week, which I understand. Did anyone pay attention to the fact that they were leading a good Wake Forest team on the road 24-3 before that? This is still a young squad prone to stretches of rough football, but they are as athletic of a team that I’ve ever seen from Maryland head coach Ralph Freidgen. Their offense is built around the talented duo of RB’s, Lance Ball and Keon Lattimore. Young QB, Jordan Steffy, has performed well thus far this season and will need to make good decisions to keep Maryland in the game. He looks to throw the ball to WR’s Danny Oquendo and Darrius Heyward-Bay and TE Joey Haynos. Maryland’s defense is actually pretty good against the run, although they will have their hands full with Rutgers’s RB Ray Rice. In the passing game, QB Mike Teel relies heavily upon WR Tiquan Underwood. Maryland will need to key on these players in particular to contain the Rutgers offense. Much has been made of Rutgers start so far this year, but keep in mind that they have played Buffalo, Norfolk St. and Navy. This should be Rutgers toughest test to date. I’m siding with Maryland and the two plus TD’s in this one.

Good luck to all.

pags11

[pags11]

mv09,

as you continue to bet on 18-22 year old athletes that use a non-round ball, you'll start to consider more dogs yourself...not a coincidence, just the games that caught my eye...

imgv,

you know I'll have a couple for you later on this year...

nevadaside,

thanks and GL to you as well...I think the oddsmakers have done a good job with this one...was going to make a 1/4 unit play at +8.5 or more, was hoping to get +10, but this line is keeping me off the game...hope that helps you...

[shrax4]

Thanks for the write-ups pags. With you on em.

[imgv94]

Superb writeups pags.

Your Michigan State writeup convinced me bro.

[pags11]

shrax,

good to have you on board...BOL to you this weekend...

imgv,

lol...thanks bro...I think it'll be a great game...

[Checkerboard]

pags11, way to go last week. All over New Mexico with you here. Good luck this week and the rest of the way. Thanks, as always for posting . . .

[crackerjack]

I just can't bet against BYU, but I think it will be a close game and UNM could easily cover.

[dave11486]

GL pags, seems like you are zoned in on some teams week to week that you continue to bank on. That is great keep it up.

[taurus]

Good write-ups pags.
We don't have too much in common this week.
I'll be on Mryland - I think getting more points thanks to Dr Bob- and New Mexico. Theh have treated me well and I had them ML vs zona and may do so again.
I see where you are coming from in the game at Madison,
I just lean the other way.
I don't have the rest of your palys and you don't have mine.
GL-
taurus alias bull

[BatemanPatrickl]

Good luck sir!

[pags11]

checkerboard,

no problem at all, I enjoy doing the write-ups...glad that we are on board together with New Mexico...

crackerjack,

I feel the same way about BYU when they are at home...they are very mortal on the road...

dave,

yeah, I'm starting to get a feel and am just trying to get it going...thanks...

taurus,

thanks man...hopefully after this week you will see that MSU is a pretty impressive squad...

bateman,

thank you...GL to you as well this weekend...