Week 4 Plays

**onlooker** · 09-20-07, 10:25 PM

Looking at your plays the only one I would have to disagree about is the San Jose State pick. I had a lean on Utah State -3, but threw it out. So with that being said, I hope you hit it since I am not betting it.

Good luck Ebone.

**BuddyBear** · 09-20-07, 10:27 PM

nice card...but a little unsure about WF. They do very poor in the role of a favorite. This is a pretty big revenge game for Maryland. Will be interested to see how this one turns out. Good luck....

**EBone** · 09-20-07, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

nice card...but a little unsure about WF. They do very poor in the role of a favorite. This is a pretty big revenge game for Maryland. Will be interested to see how this one turns out. Good luck....

Understood. I can certainly understand how people might not like Wake Forest. I guess this is more of an anti-Friedgen play and also a Wake Forest strong early schedule play as well.

Take a look at Friedgen's September ATS record compared to his overall ATS record at Maryland. Maryland has been slow out of the gate under him. They will turn it around in October. They just need a few games under their belt. I'm banking on the fact that they have been slow out of the gate historically. We'll see if that holds up.

Good luck, BB.

E

**rjt721** · 09-20-07, 10:42 PM

I don't think there's a more overrated team in the country than Wisconsin. That being said, the line does seem a little short, doesn't it? Before the lines came out, I was planning to make Iowa a play, but was hoping to get +10 or better. As is, I'm passing.

Similarly, I had my eye on ASU if the price was -9, but I think the Sun Devils are a bit overvalued here.

That SJSU line is baffling to me. I know Utah State's at home, but I don't know what they've done to justify being favored in this game. SJSU's predictably 0-3 considering their schedule thus far, but in my opinion they're the far superior team, and getting 3.5 is a gift.

Good luck EBone.

**BuddyBear** · 09-20-07, 10:47 PM

hopefully you are right about WF.

I am not sure what to think of Iowa/UW game. Both teams to me are overrated but relatively even in many other areas and neither team has looked overly impressive so far. In fact, both teams have looked really poor at times Iowa's defense looks really really good though if anything but that has to be somewhat tempered by who they have played NIU: (lost to a 1-AA school and EMU), Syracuse (the worst big conference school) and Iowa St (very close to the worst big conference school). Even so, to not allow a TD is impressive and has to count for something. Moreover, this is a big rivarly game as Iowa City is only 3 hours from here in Madison. UI has owned UW of late but UW won last year.

On the other hand, UW has struggled more than expected. I knew they were a bit overrated and UNLV hanging in with them was not a surprise but for the Citadel to do whatever they wanted on that defense in the 1H made me wonder just how overrated this team is. I would give a slight edge on offense to UW b/c while Donovan is a 1yr QB as well as Christianson he did start against Iowa last year and won so that should count for something...moreoever, they have a dual rushing attack in PJ Hill and Lance Smith but did lose a key WR in Paul Hubbard and i think that needs to be noted.

In terms of the intangibles, it is a night game and of course Camp Randall will be rocking but I am not sure that is enough for me to consider UW.

Really this game is a toss up to me as I can make a compelling case either way. Perhaps at -7 I would have considered UW but higher than that could be difficult to persuade me. This is always a great rivalry that does not get much attention and two good young coaches matching wits. I would have liked to bet on it as my g/f is coming over to watch it with me (I know kind of a drag....) so I'll be an interested spectator more than anything else Saturday night for this game to see how it plays out.

GL....

**EBone** · 09-21-07, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

hopefully you are right about WF.

I am not sure what to think of Iowa/UW game. Both teams to me are overrated but relatively even in many other areas and neither team has looked overly impressive so far. In fact, both teams have looked really poor at times Iowa's defense looks really really good though if anything but that has to be somewhat tempered by who they have played NIU: (lost to a 1-AA school and EMU), Syracuse (the worst big conference school) and Iowa St (very close to the worst big conference school). Even so, to not allow a TD is impressive and has to count for something. Moreover, this is a big rivarly game as Iowa City is only 3 hours from here in Madison. UI has owned UW of late but UW won last year.

On the other hand, UW has struggled more than expected. I knew they were a bit overrated and UNLV hanging in with them was not a surprise but for the Citadel to do whatever they wanted on that defense in the 1H made me wonder just how overrated this team is. I would give a slight edge on offense to UW b/c while Donovan is a 1yr QB as well as Christianson he did start against Iowa last year and won so that should count for something...moreoever, they have a dual rushing attack in PJ Hill and Lance Smith but did lose a key WR in Paul Hubbard and i think that needs to be noted.

In terms of the intangibles, it is a night game and of course Camp Randall will be rocking but I am not sure that is enough for me to consider UW.

Really this game is a toss up to me as I can make a compelling case either way. Perhaps at -7 I would have considered UW but higher than that could be difficult to persuade me. This is always a great rivalry that does not get much attention and two good young coaches matching wits. I would have liked to bet on it as my g/f is coming over to watch it with me (I know kind of a drag....) so I'll be an interested spectator more than anything else Saturday night for this game to see how it plays out.

GL....

Always appreciate your opinion, BB. I can't dispute anything you say above. Farentz is a solid, solid coach however, I, personally, don't think Iowa can score much in this matchup. I see a tight game in the 1st half and UW wearing them down in the 2nd half. That is kinda what happened to Wash St. in Week 1.

I'll be watching and rooting in the Badgers. Don't know if I'm correct in my thinking but I hope I am.

E

**EBone** · 09-22-07, 09:35 AM

Adding Duke +14 for a half unit (0.55 units to win 0.5 unit).

E

**EBone** · 09-22-07, 11:30 AM

Adding Ole Miss +24 for a half unit (0.55 units to win 0.5 unit).

Adding another half unit on Duke @ +14 (total 1.1 units to win 1 unit).

Good luck to everyone.

E

**jonmic** · 09-22-07, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by EBone

Well, thus far, I'm at 17-15 for the year for a mediocre +0.55 units. I guess it is better than losing; still not very impressive. OK, so here are my games. Played these tonight so I guess I'm chomping at the bit.

I have to admit that I do feel pretty good about them. We'll see how that turns out!

Tulsa +23 over Oklahoma
Oregon State +12 over Arizona State
Kentucky +7 over Arkansas
Miami-Ohio +13.5 over Colorado
San Jose State +3.5 over Utah State
Wake Forest -3.5 over Maryland (what a horrible, horrible line!)
Wisconsin -7.5 over Iowa (what a horrible, horrible line!)

(EDIT: All games played above for 1.1 unit to win 1 unit)....9-22-2007

Good luck to everyone. I have a lot of leans that I'm still contemplating but these 7 are booked.

E

I like Maryland but good luck

**EBone** · 09-22-07, 03:22 PM

Adding Northern Illinois on the ML (+125)

(0.6 units to win 0.75 units)

Good luck to everyone.

E

**EBone** · 09-23-07, 08:40 AM

Ended 6-3-1 yesterday for a grand total of +1.95 units. Good thing I added the games I did yesterday or it would have been a losing day.

Hope everyone did well.

Grand Total: 23-18-1 (+2.50 units)

E

**swifty** · 09-23-07, 09:06 AM

wtg on your wins, Ebone,

**swifty** · 09-23-07, 10:09 AM

USC (3-0)
What's up with ABC broadcasting crappy games? At noon, it was Louisville-Syracuse, which was supposed to be a snooze-fest. At 8, USC beat up on Washington State. Why ABC would broadcast two contests where the home teams were favored by a combined 64 points is beyond me. Next week? "Akron plays Connecticut. Check your local listings!" Yeah, if I feel like slipping into a coma, I'll tune into that game.

**swifty** · 09-23-07, 10:10 AM

LSU (4-0)
I complained about the fact that all of the good games were on in the afternoon last week, and I have to do it again. I couldn't watch LSU-South Carolina because I was too busy keeping track of Penn State-Michigan and Michigan State-Notre Dame. Why couldn't one of those contests be played at noon? Here's the list of the early contests I had to choose between watching: Syracuse-Louisville, South Florida-North Carolina, West Virginia-East Carolina, Boston College-Army and Temple-Bowling Green. I should have just grabbed a hammer and started bashing in my skull.

**Mr Handicapable** · 09-25-07, 07:14 PM

MARYLAND PLUS 16.5??? What the #$%??

I'm a HUGE Powersweep/Phil Steele fan but I'm not waiting to see how he views this game when I saw the line! Coach Friedgen is one of the best at getting kids to play at or above their talent level. Their underrated defense shut down Purdue last year in their bowl game...not to mention they held WV to 31 this year which will probably be their lowest total all year. The Terps will be physical and athletic enough to slow Ray Rice...keeping them close! I guess the trends favor Rutgers but like in horseracing there's a big step up in class for Rutgers compared to running over Buffalo and Norfolk State!
Cash in on the TERPS!!

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-07, 08:08 PM

For the record, ND home games are always broadcast on NBC.

For the Terps, it's true that Rutgers has played relatively weak competition in Navy, Buffalo, and Norfolk St....but keep in mind Maryland has played Villanova, Florida-International, a down Wake team this year, and WVU who they lost to at home. Not saying Maryland can't cover this big spread, but the schedules are nearly identical in terms of strength if you exclude WVU

**EBone** · 09-25-07, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by Mr Handicapable

I'm a HUGE Powersweep/Phil Steele fan but I'm not waiting to see how he views this game when I saw the line! Coach Friedgen is one of the best at getting kids to play at or above their talent level. Their underrated defense shut down Purdue last year in their bowl game...not to mention they held WV to 31 this year which will probably be their lowest total all year. The Terps will be physical and athletic enough to slow Ray Rice...keeping them close! I guess the trends favor Rutgers but like in horseracing there's a big step up in class for Rutgers compared to running over Buffalo and Norfolk State!
Cash in on the TERPS!!

Well, our fellow poster, pags11, is on the Terps this weekend. That should bode well for you.

For the record, I think Friedgen is a good person and terrific football coach as well as life teacher. I just think his September ATS record is awful. All my indicators say Rutgers to cover......but I'm not going to play it because my gut tells me that the above quoted post is correct......Maryland comes to play at Rutgers.

E

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-07, 08:46 PM

Line is moving on Rutgers if you want it, you bettter get it before it hits -17.....Conversely, if you are interested in Maryland, you may want to consider wating b/c this line could go up. Should be a good game.