Week 2 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

Ted Stickle · 09-05-07, 06:12 PM

Newbie here. Strictly a square and been a lurker but finally signed up to post a little. That's a nice listing and I'm on two of your bold road dogs already with Miami and Nebraska. OU is going to win but I got the Canes yesterday for 11 and took it. Callahan will coach the Huskers this week like a BCS game with his new contract. Was wishing I got LSU down around -10 but now thinking I might take the Hokies if it goes up another point. Nice website.

Ted

shrax4 · 09-05-07, 07:41 PM

Good luck nep, I'm waiting another week before I get on board with this system. I'd like to see how it goes this week in NFL and College first.

pags11 · 09-05-07, 08:40 PM

GL nep...

nep1293 · 09-05-07, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by shrax4

Good luck nep, I'm waiting another week before I get on board with this system. I'd like to see how it goes this week in NFL and College first.

Give it a few weeks, there wll be plenty of games to play this year so a few weeks to get comfortable isn't going to be a big deal. It took me a while to get fully behind this system and I created it.

Originally posted by pags11

GL nep...

same to you pags

nep1293 · 09-06-07, 07:06 AM

Official Chart Pick for 9/6/07

MTSU @ Louisville (-38.5)

nep1293 · 09-08-07, 06:31 AM

Official Chart Plays for 9/8/07

I'm listing the opening line again for the official plays. That will be the line used to track Wins and Losses so it makes more sense to have it listed.

Nebraska (-6.5) @ Wake Forest
Nevada @ Northwestern (-7)
Ball St @ Eastern Michigan (+5.5)
Alabama @ Vanderbilt (+5.5)
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Temple
Louisiana-Monroe (+26) @ Clemson
Utah St @ Wyoming (-25)
California (-16.5) @ Colorado St
NC St @ Boston College (-13.5)
Oregon @ Michigan (-7)
Missouri @ Mississippi (+5.5)
Notre Dame @ Penn St (-14)
Air Force @ Utah (-7.5)
North Carolina (+4.5) @ East Carolina
Kent St @ Kentucky (-13)
Troy @ Florida (-28)
Toledo (+3.5) @ Central Michigan
Rice @ Baylor (-6)
Mississippi St (-6.5) @ Tulane
San Diego St @ Washington St (-14)
Hawaii (-28) @ Louisiana Tech
Florida Atlantic @ Oklahoma St (-23)
Maryland @ Florida International (+24.5)
UTEP @ Texas Tech (-24)
Syracuse @ Iowa (-23)
South Florida @ Auburn (-7)
Virginia Tech @ LSU (-13)
Wisconsin (-26.5) @ UNLV

From my count there are 14 games where the line has moved in our favor and 10 where it moved against us. So whether anybody takes Penn St (-17.5) or Vanderbilt (+3.5) is really a judgement call.

Counting the Louisville loss there are 29 Chart picks this week. 17 wins is the goal.

Good luck today guys

VolinArizona · 09-08-07, 10:47 AM

Didn't see this until this morning after a week full of bets. Plan to try it next week. GL man!

nep1293 · 09-08-07, 10:34 PM

It looks like we might break even today. I haven't added it all up yet though, I'll update tomorrow.

BuddyBear · 09-09-07, 12:23 AM

I would say you are about 10 under .500 if you take all the bolded plays....

BuddyBear · 09-09-07, 12:25 AM

sorry i was counting the bolded ones in post#1...i see post#7 and you are right it looks break even.

nep1293 · 09-09-07, 05:50 PM

Final Record

Week 2 Record

Recommended Plays went 13-15-1. The push was Florida which probably ended up as a W for mostly everybody. Not a very good week but I didn't get killed so it's no biggie.

Overall recommended plays YTD total is 27-21, 56.25 %.

hhsilver · 09-10-07, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by nep1293

I'm listing the opening line again for the official plays. That will be the line used to track Wins and Losses so it makes more sense to have it listed.

Nebraska (-6.5) @ Wake Forest
Nevada @ Northwestern (-7)
Ball St @ Eastern Michigan (+5.5)
Alabama @ Vanderbilt (+5.5)
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Temple
Louisiana-Monroe (+26) @ Clemson
Utah St @ Wyoming (-25)
California (-16.5) @ Colorado St
NC St @ Boston College (-13.5)
Oregon @ Michigan (-7)
Missouri @ Mississippi (+5.5)
Notre Dame @ Penn St (-14)
Air Force @ Utah (-7.5)
North Carolina (+4.5) @ East Carolina
Kent St @ Kentucky (-13)
Troy @ Florida (-28)
Toledo (+3.5) @ Central Michigan
Rice @ Baylor (-6)
Mississippi St (-6.5) @ Tulane
San Diego St @ Washington St (-14)
Hawaii (-28) @ Louisiana Tech
Florida Atlantic @ Oklahoma St (-23)
Maryland @ Florida International (+24.5)
UTEP @ Texas Tech (-24)
Syracuse @ Iowa (-23)
South Florida @ Auburn (-7)
Virginia Tech @ LSU (-13)
Wisconsin (-26.5) @ UNLV

From my count there are 14 games where the line has moved in our favor and 10 where it moved against us. So whether anybody takes Penn St (-17.5) or Vanderbilt (+3.5) is really a judgement call.

Counting the Louisville loss there are 29 Chart picks this week. 17 wins is the goal.

Good luck today guys

I appreciate your sharing of your work. But I have some problems with the way you are handling line changes. You posted your recommended plays with the original lines but without the %'s, which are still available, of course, by scrolling back to your first post.
By the time you posted on Sat morn, your lines for Penn st, Vand, E Mich, NW, Nebr, among others maybe, were not close to the current lines.

Here are some from your original post.

Nevada @ Northwestern (-7) ............54.66%
Nebraska (-6.5) @ Wake Forest.........61.50%
Alabama @ Vanderbilt (+5.5) ............57.64%
Ball St @ Eastern Michigan (+5.5) ......57.64%
South Carolina @ Georgia (-5.5) .........54.94%
Notre Dame @ Penn St (-14) .............56.24%

How could you say maybe for Penn St at -17.5 when it barely qualifies at -14. NW wasn't even at 55% at -7 and by Sat they were -10, yet you still have it in your final list. Vandy, as you mention, and E Mich just squeeze in at just above 55%. Am I correct that you use 55% as the cutoff? ( i think I remember that from your original writeup)

And what about Georgia? If they were 54.9% at -5.5, why weren't they a play at -3.5? Do you only consider teams that are plays with respect to the early lines making it impossible for a "non-play" to become a play due to a line change?

Do you make all your bets early? As you said, some lines move in your favor - some don't. This makes me wonder about the accuracy of your accounting. It would help if you kept the original %'s with your post of recommended plays.

I'm not sure I'll buy into what you're doing, but it's interesting to follow your work. thanks

nep1293 · 09-10-07, 06:15 AM

Originally posted by hhsilver

I appreciate your sharing of your work. But I have some problems with the way you are handling line changes. You posted your recommended plays with the original lines but without the %'s, which are still available, of course, by scrolling back to your first post.
By the time you posted on Sat morn, your lines for Penn st, Vand, E Mich, NW, Nebr, among others maybe, were not close to the current lines.

Here are some from your original post.

Nevada @ Northwestern (-7) ............54.66%
Nebraska (-6.5) @ Wake Forest.........61.50%
Alabama @ Vanderbilt (+5.5) ............57.64%
Ball St @ Eastern Michigan (+5.5) ......57.64%
South Carolina @ Georgia (-5.5) .........54.94%
Notre Dame @ Penn St (-14) .............56.24%

How could you say maybe for Penn St at -17.5 when it barely qualifies at -14. NW wasn't even at 55% at -7 and by Sat they were -10, yet you still have it in your final list. Vandy, as you mention, and E Mich just squeeze in at just above 55%. Am I correct that you use 55% as the cutoff? ( i think I remember that from your original writeup)

And what about Georgia? If they were 54.9% at -5.5, why weren't they a play at -3.5? Do you only consider teams that are plays with respect to the early lines making it impossible for a "non-play" to become a play due to a line change?

Do you make all your bets early? As you said, some lines move in your favor - some don't. This makes me wonder about the accuracy of your accounting. It would help if you kept the original %'s with your post of recommended plays.

I'm not sure I'll buy into what you're doing, but it's interesting to follow your work. thanks

I put the opening lines down simply because that is the number i am using to grade it as a W or a L, regardless of the number I actually have. It's just easier for me to follow that way. I bet on Penn St -17.5. If I put down that number and they won by 15, I would count the game as a W even if I lost it. So little inaccuries are bound to happen.

I had Florida at -26 so I won the game, but when i put the game into my spreadsheet it went down as a push. When the liine changes so much it's really a judgment call if you want to play it or not. Usually the lines change a little before I even run the numbers for the week so I do the best that I can.

Ironically, there were 6 games this week that i debated counting as recommended plays, all 6 of them lost. (Michigan, NW, Auburn, E Mich, Vandy, Ole Miss). I had a lot to do this week and i kind of just rushed through the process to get everyhing done.

All in all i don't think it was a terrible week. My goal for the first 2-3 weeks was to just break even and I'm up a little. I'm very confident that the W's will start to pile up and have a good profit for the year.

hhsilver · 09-10-07, 09:37 AM

Thanks for your reply. I understand that you have to make a choice about what goes in your data concerning opening lines and changes. Certainly small inaccuracies will result. With enough data, which apparently you have, the inaccuracies will be negligible.

In your reply, you didn't mention Georgia. I am still curious. Here's the question from my last post:
**
And what about Georgia? If they were 54.9% at -5.5, why weren't they a play at -3.5? Do you only consider teams that are plays with respect to the early lines making it impossible for a "non-play" to become a play due to a line change?
****

Was this simply an oversight or was there another reason Ga at -3.5 was not a play?

Also, over the years, do you have any data concerning how your picks do when the line changes in your favor vs when the line changes against you. Some times lines changes scare me off of a better line (dr bob, etc) and sometimes I wonder if it's better to ignore the steam and get the best of a moving line. I'm sure there is no easy answer, but with all your data, you may have some insights.

Do you have a feel for whether it's better to play your picks early or late?

thanks

nep1293 · 09-10-07, 11:18 AM

Georgia was an oversight. So was Akron, so the totals will change slightly in my week 3 post. Last week was hectic for me so I rushed through a lot of things. I'll make things simpler this week

I had Georgia as a play at 5.5 though, going to 3.5 made it look better but line movement won't determine whether or not I designate an "official play"

And I don't have any real data on how line movement goes with the system. But to me line movement seems to be irrelevant. For the most part, If a team covers 6, they will probably cover 7 and if they cover 7 most will cover 8. That is why i try to just use that opening line as a standard for the system.