CF Week 1 picks from wheell

[Wheell]

First off let me wish everyone best of luck on this opening weekend. On to the picks, all lines taken from bets made at pinnacle today:

East Carolina +27.5 +100

I actually prefer the QB switch at EC as this should enable them to play to their strength and run the ball more... which runs the clock more, which helps when you have a 27.5 point lead at the start. My own numbers (which should be taken with a grain of salt at any time, and with at least two grains at the start of a season) say VT shouldn't be more than a 3 touchdown favorite.

Virginia -3.5 +100

I don't buy that Virginia as less than a touchdown favorite here. I am not a big ACC fan so when I see that I like an ACC favorite I am surprised.

Nevada +21.5 -109

This isn't a Boise St. situation where Nevada is being asked to lay down and take a dive. 21.5 strike me as absurd. Had this line been 14.5 I would not have been surprised.

Memphis +3 -109

I have this game being about pk'em so the points seem tasty to me.

Houston +16 -105

I can see Houston winning this game outright 31-28 or something in that area. 16 points is a lot when you have a live dog. I only have Oregon as a 9 point favorite or so.

Georgia Tech +118 ML

I don't see this as being easy money, ND can score, but breaking in a new QB while being physically overmatched on defense leads to a very tough game even at home.

Arizona +165 ML

I respect BYU, but if this game were played 1000 times Arizona wins at least 400.

Illinois +4 +100

I like catching points, I like being at home, and I really like doing so with a team I feel to be close to the equal of the favorite.

Colorado -2.5 -105

Grudge match to start the season. If Colorado loses this it is almost as if the season is over already. Week 1 must win, -2.5 at home. I'll take it.

Tennessee +6 +100

So, let me get this straight: This game would be close to pk'em in Tennessee? Bull.

Texas Tech -8 -105

SMU should be overmatched, and Texas Tech runs up the score on said teams.

Florida St. -3.5 -105

I am gritting my teeth over this pick. It is 100% statistical with 0 handicapper influence. My computer says Florida St. has an excellent chance to hold Clemson to under 10.5 points. My computer also likes the under in this game, but I am sticking to sides until I know how the new clock rules play out.

Friendly reminder to everyone: There are no locks, no sure things, your edge is smaller than you think (if it exists at all), and never bet money that needs to go for rent, food, or payments to a large man named Vinny. Good luck and have fun.

Wheell

[pags11]

wheell,

with you on houston, against you on Nevada (sling-around) and Tennessee...

[Wheell]

How can you give the points against Nevada? What do you know that I don't?

[pags11]

wheell,

I can tell you're new around here so I'll try to be as nice as possible...

let's start with these few tidbits:

-Nevada has covered around 30% of their games vs. BCS schools the last 5 years
-they have their best defensive player, Butler, out and their first and second string out for the game
-they lost their starting QB, RB, TE and WR's from last year's team, not to mention their two tackles on offense
-they can't stop the run, especially on the road
-Bill Callahan looks to run it up on weaker opponents like Nevada
-Nebraska will be loud, hot and humid which will have Nevada worn out by the third quarter
-Nebraska's 2nd string QB is twice as good as Nevada's starter, not to mention Sam Keller is going to light it up...
-Chris Ault will have his starters out towards the end of the third quarter so he doesn't get anyone hurt...

hope this helps...

[dante1]

wheell,

I can tell you're new around here so I'll try to be as nice as possible...

let's start with these few tidbits:

-Nevada has covered around 30% of their games vs. BCS schools the last 5 years
-they have their best defensive player, Butler, out and their first and second string out for the game
-they lost their starting QB, RB, TE and WR's from last year's team, not to mention their two tackles on offense
-they can't stop the run, especially on the road
-Bill Callahan looks to run it up on weaker opponents like Nevada
-Nebraska will be loud, hot and humid which will have Nevada worn out by the third quarter
-Nebraska's 2nd string QB is twice as good as Nevada's starter, not to mention Sam Keller is going to light it up...
-Chris Ault will have his starters out towards the end of the third quarter so he doesn't get anyone hurt...

hope this helps...

God, I love write ups like this. Pags my man you are going to be my main man this college season. I think with your brains and my luck we just might be okay this year.

[pags11]

sounds like a plan dante!...you're good people bro...

[Wheell]

If I may quote Jules Winnfield: "Please, allow me to retort."

1. Nevada has covered around 30% of their games vs. BCS schools the last 5 years.

I don't care. I find stats like that meaningless and you should too. First off, they have played fewer 50 games vs. BCS schools in the last 5 years. If you could go back in time that would be helpful but I think if you did a study teams that go 30% vs. BCS schools in a 5 year span go around 50% vs. BCS schools in the next 5 years.

2. they have their best defensive player, Butler, out and their first and second string out for the game.

Butler is out and Green is out. However, they have depth on the defensive side of the ball and Ault has done an excellent job of recruiting speed at the skill positions on offense. I can't say how well the offense will mesh, but they do have enough talent on offense to match up against Nebraska.

3. They can't stop the run, especially on the road.

In general running games benefit more from home field advantage than passing games. However, I don't buy that Nebraska will be able to run all over Nevada.

4. Bill Callahan looks to run it up on weaker opponents like Nevada.

If Nebraska CAN win by 22+, that's a problem. I am suggesting they won't be able to dominate to that extent.

5. Nebraska will be loud, hot and humid which will have Nevada worn out by the third quarter.

Nebraska once went down to Miami to face Warren Sapp's Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl and simply ran the Canes out of gas. Having said that I don't see heat and humidity beating Nevada.

6. Nebraska's 2nd string QB is twice as good as Nevada's starter, not to mention Sam Keller is going to light it up...

Say what? We have to agree to disagree on the Cornhuskers passing game. Thankfully this isn't an 86 Celtics vs. 93 Bulls situation. We'll find out in a few days.

7. Chris Ault will have his starters out towards the end of the third quarter so he doesn't get anyone hurt...

Not if the game is competitive he won't.

We clearly see different football games. I see Nevada as being competitive and you don't. I am considering heading out to the local sportsbar to specifically catch this game and see who gets the better of it.

Good Luck Pags.

Wheell

[pags11]

wheell,

sorry to say, but your rebuttles have practically zero logic behind them (by the way I live in Reno and feel I have a pretty good beat on this Nevada team)...

the stat of Nevada not covering against BCS opponents should show you that Nevada is a nice little WAC school that bounces back and forth from the MPC Computer Bowl and the Hawaii Bowl from year to year, but can't recruit the top caliber athletes (unlike their basketball program) it takes to compete against the BCS conferences...you should be very concerned about this...

Nevada's defense is "smallish" and that's putting it nicely...if you actually have a chance to watch this game, take note of the fact that Nevada's D lineman will be 3-4 inches shorter and 30-40 pounds lighter than Nebraska's...bro, they gave up 4.3 ypr to La. Tech last year on the road and that was the least yards per rush of any opponent they played all year on the road...if you can't stop the run in college football, especially on the road, then things can get very ugly in the second half of the game...Ault hasn't had a blue chip athlete come in on defense since he's been back coaching...Butler could probably be a second string LB for Nebraska, but most of Nevada's defenders wouldn't even sniff the scout team for Nebraska...and they have zero depth...

how in the **** are you comparing Nebraska going down to Miami to Nevada going to Nebraska? we are talking apples and oranges here...Nebraska is and always has been a program that's played in big games in big venues...the toughest place Nevada has had to play outside of conference was up in Washington about 4 years ago, which isn't anything compared to what they will face on Saturday...and the humidity will definitely be a factor, being that we don't have any here and the fact that they've never played in front of 90,000 crazed fans in a stadium that's right on top of you...

my point regarding callahan is that I don't trust him against opponents equally or more talented because he will most often times get outcoached on the field...however, Nevada doesn't present that problem due to the lack of athleticsm...I guess what I'm saying is that I'd rather have Callahan and his athletes instead of Ault's coaching and his team in this one...

you act like I haven't watched Chris Ault coach since I was 6 years old (or make out with one of his daughters in high school...lol...damn she was fine)...the guy's M.O. is very clear in these types of games, compete for a bit, then shut it down and get ready to beat up on Sacramento St...

you see Nevada playing an unmotivated Miami team with a lame duck coach up in freezing ass weather in a bowl game no one gave a **** about as being a way to cap this game...two totally different situations...I learned the hard way as I had La. Tech in week one last year vs. Nebraska...you may learn something this week as well...

[Wheell]

wheell,

sorry to say, but your rebuttles have practically zero logic behind them (by the way I live in Reno and feel I have a pretty good beat on this Nevada team)...

the stat of Nevada not covering against BCS opponents should show you that Nevada is a nice little WAC school that bounces back and forth from the MPC Computer Bowl and the Hawaii Bowl from year to year, but can't recruit the top caliber athletes (unlike their basketball program) it takes to compete against the BCS conferences...you should be very concerned about this...

Nevada's defense is "smallish" and that's putting it nicely...if you actually have a chance to watch this game, take note of the fact that Nevada's D lineman will be 3-4 inches shorter and 30-40 pounds lighter than Nebraska's...bro, they gave up 4.3 ypr to La. Tech last year on the road and that was the least yards per rush of any opponent they played all year on the road...if you can't stop the run in college football, especially on the road, then things can get very ugly in the second half of the game...Ault hasn't had a blue chip athlete come in on defense since he's been back coaching...Butler could probably be a second string LB for Nebraska, but most of Nevada's defenders wouldn't even sniff the scout team for Nebraska...and they have zero depth...

how in the **** are you comparing Nebraska going down to Miami to Nevada going to Nebraska? we are talking apples and oranges here...Nebraska is and always has been a program that's played in big games in big venues...the toughest place Nevada has had to play outside of conference was up in Washington about 4 years ago, which isn't anything compared to what they will face on Saturday...and the humidity will definitely be a factor, being that we don't have any here and the fact that they've never played in front of 90,000 crazed fans in a stadium that's right on top of you...

my point regarding callahan is that I don't trust him against opponents equally or more talented because he will most often times get outcoached on the field...however, Nevada doesn't present that problem due to the lack of athleticsm...I guess what I'm saying is that I'd rather have Callahan and his athletes instead of Ault's coaching and his team in this one...

you act like I haven't watched Chris Ault coach since I was 6 years old (or make out with one of his daughters in high school...lol...damn she was fine)...the guy's M.O. is very clear in these types of games, compete for a bit, then shut it down and get ready to beat up on Sacramento St...

you see Nevada playing an unmotivated Miami team with a lame duck coach up in freezing ass weather in a bowl game no one gave a **** about as being a way to cap this game...two totally different situations...I learned the hard way as I had La. Tech in week one last year vs. Nebraska...you may learn something this week as well...

I admit I have never made out with any of Ault's daughters. I also understand your point about Callahan being a scrub crusher who will lose when his counterpart has the talent to beat him.

My point about Nebraska @ Miami (back in the day) is to admit that Nebraska is very good about wearing out their opposition. I am just saying that I am not worried about the field conditions. If Nebraska is going to destroy Nevada I won't be blaming the weather.

As for Nevada's defense vs. Nebraska's offense, I'll take my chances. I like Nevada's linebacking corps and I expect Nevada to be quick to the ball. I mean, look, we are talking about a 3 touchdown dog. This isn't supposed to be a fair fight. If Nebraska only wins by 2 touchdowns I'll have won going away.

Now, this is most important. Regardless of what happens in this game, the fact that Nevada has covered 30% of their games against BCS conferences over the last five years is MEANINGLESS. Statistically that has approximately 0 predictive value as to how well they will do against the spread vs. BCS conferences over the next five years. You are suggesting bookies and gamblers systematically overrate Nevada vs. BCS schools and I am stating unequivically that this isn't the case. You clearly have a multitude of statistics at your disposal. Compare the records ATS of teams from non-BCS schools vs. BCS schools from 1997-2001, check out the teams that were below 33% or above 67%, and then see how many of those schools were on the same side of the 50% mark ATS from 2002-2006. You should find about half of the schools with great marks against the BCS are still performing above 50%, and half are below. Same thing for the losers.

The fact is, failing to cover the spread is a VERY difficult skill to repeat over time.

[EBone]

I am not trying to be a shit disturber. However, below is a link from weather.com for the Saturday forecast in Lincoln, NE.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/skin/wxdetail/USNE0283?dayNum=2

[bigboydan]

I'm really liking your Houston play Wheell

[pags11]

wheell,

so the fact that Fresno St. has a propensity of covering vs. BCS schools and is from the same conference as Nevada has no bearing here?...my point is that unlike FSU, or even Boise St., Nevada uses these as scrimmages...I believe the oddsmaker is enticing you with a ton of points (so no I don't believe the oddsmakers are overrating Nevada at all)...my point to you is that history has a tendency of repeating itself and Nevada isn't playing Idaho at home this week...it should also be noted that the AD made Ault schedule this game (along with the FSU and ND games in the upcoming years)...if Ault had his way, he'd be playing Weber St. in the non-conference season still...