Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Sep 1)

**Willie Bee** · 08-28-07, 11:11 AM

Michigan State -20 versus UAB

Game Time: 09/01/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Straight out of the box, some heavy chalk to lay on the college gridiron. Don't sweat this 20-point margin; back the Michigan State Spartans in their season opener versus UAB.

The Michigan State Spartans enter into this tilt against UAB off what was a disappointing season in 2006.

Much of the Spartans problems came because of an array of injuries on a strong looking offensive line. With last year's collapse behind them new head coach Mike Dantonio now looks to start his tenure off in convincing fashion against a Blazers squad that is in a rebuilding season behind a new coaching staff that will be returning just a few of starters.

The UAB defensive line is losing six of eight of their top guys, with the average combined weight of the new crew weighing in at around 251 pounds. Not a good omen against this huge dominating MSU offensive line. Look for State running backs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick to pound out a pile of yards as the Spartans romp to a one-sided victory over Alabama-Birmingham.

Free Pick: Michigan St. -20

**pags11** · 08-28-07, 01:26 PM

I bet you by the end of the week, we have a write up on every game on every side from all of these guys...

**Willie Bee** · 08-29-07, 09:51 AM

Wyoming Cowboys +3½ vs Virginia Cavaliers

Game Time: 09/01/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

Wyoming has the home crowd behind them in Laramie and revenge on their mind from a 1-point loss at Virginia last year. Take the Cowboys and the points.

The Cavaliers start their new season in hopes of erasing the rudiments from a horrid 5-7 straight up 2006 campaign. The most vivid deficiency came at the quarterback position where Jameel Sewell (1,542), a then-freshmen, took over for the talents of Marques Hagans (2,802, 17). Overall, it was a disaster!

The school fell from 26.7 to 15.1 in average points scored. The defense played well for the most part holding opponents to 17.8 points ppg. The Cavaliers wins were versus Wyoming, Duke, North Carolina, NC State and Miami Florida. Those institutions went a cool 19-42 straight up.

Head master Al Groh (68-73) was highly touted coming in from the pro ranks seven years ago, but the Cavaliers have yet to win nine games in any season. Their best effort was in 2004 with a 8-3 SU record. Recruiting was thought to be improving, but the talent has waned since the move to the ACC. Although 19 starters return to the team there are many deficiencies to overcome.

Laramie is a great place to visit on vacation, but the area does not have a west coast or southeast marquee campus. Therefore, many possible recruits pass up a beautiful school to advance their education. Head coach Joseph Glenn (21-26) suffered last season as Wyoming played with great heart in most games and with some breaks could have reached a postseason bowl. Virginia (12-13), Boise State (10-17), Air Force (24-31) and Syracuse (34-40) were all winnable games.

As a home dog the Pokes are on a 5-1 ATS run, while winning 13 of 14 first home game scenarios. Plus, this is an obvious major revenge game for Wyoming after that one-point loss in Virginia that could have changed their season, but a missed extra point did in the visitor.

With the Cavaliers a notorious slow starter (4-16 ATS the first two games of the year), we’re backing the kids from Wyoming.

Free Pick: Wyoming +3½

**pags11** · 08-29-07, 06:06 PM

slight lean to this side, but not nearly enough to play it...

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:01 AM

Cowboy Up: Wyoming +3½ vs Virginia

Game Time: 09/01/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com

Taking a Mountain West team over an ACC team to begin the year sounds like professional suicide, but hear me out. This isn't exactly Miami against San Diego St.

When the University of Virginia travels west to Laramie to tackle the University of Wyoming, a lot of interesting upset factors will be in play. Since it's Week 1 of the college football season, and we've got very little relevant on-field statistical data to sort through, let's take a look at some of these factors:

Wyoming is 12-1 straight-up in home openers their last 13 seasons.
This is a revenge game for Wyoming. Last season, the Cowboys traveled to Charlottesville and played their hearts out in a 13-12 overtime loss, a game Virginia won when kicker Aric Goodman missed an extra point that would've sent the contest to a second extra frame. In that game, Wyoming blew a couple golden opportunities to extend the score, including a third-quarter fumble on the Cavaliers' one-yard-line.
Wyoming is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 as a home underdog. In Saturday's game, Virginia is favored by 3½ points.
The Cowboys found their quarterback of the future midseason last year in Karsten Sween, who took over midway through the Syracuse game and almost led Wyoming to a comeback win (he tied the game with a dramatic touchdown pass with 0:15 remaining, but lost in overtime). After that, Wyoming went 5-2, with only losses to 11-2 BYU and 11-2 TCU (and wins against bowl-bound New Mexico and Utah).
Wyoming plays the same basic 3-4 defensive alignment that Al Groh and Virginia do, which means the Cowboys offense has seen much of what it'll see on Sunday all summer long.
Virginia is 10-24 straight up on the road under Al Groh.

For all of Groh's pedigree as an NFL coach and a Bill Parcells disciple, I don't think it can be argued he's been much of a success in his six years at UVA, and Jameel Sewell, the Wahoos' sophomore quarterback is both inexperienced and banged up, with a bad wrist. Plus, this game will be played at altitude. Nothing about it tells me Virginia should be favored by more than a field goal.

So in Week 1 of the college football season, take Wyoming (+3½) at home against Virginia. It should be a close one, and Wyoming's inexperience on both the offensive and defensive lines could do me in here. But asking Virginia to pull out a win in a very hostile environment with less oxygen than they're used to is asking a lot.

Last Season: It was a pretty good year in this space, as we went 9-5 during the regular season, and then 2-2 in bowls. Here's hoping we can do even better in 2007.

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:04 AM

Play Arizona Wildcats (+3½) at BYU Cougars

Game Time: 09/01/2007 05:30 PM -
By: Scott Rickenbach | playbook.com

Arizona's Mike Stoops should have a more experienced team in this season opener, and the Wildcats plus the points are the right play at BYU in LaVell Edwards Stadium.

The Wildcats are on their way up while the Cougars could be on their way down. Even if it's not a big drop this season for BYU, the fact is this dropoff will be the most significant early in the season and we really like what Arizona brings to the field to kick off their season.

Mike Stoops seems to be heading toward a peak season with the Wildcats as they are returning 19 starters this season. Look for Arizona's improved spread offense to be a key to an even better year than last year's 6-6. Amazingly, the Wildcats narrowly missed a bowl berth even though they averaged only 16 points per game last season. Now, with expected improvement in the spread offense we see bigger things for the Wildcats starting right away in Game 1.

The Wildcats are somewhat fortunate to be catching BYU early. The Cougars are only returning 12 starters from last season so they will be in a bit of an adjustment phase early in the season. Without MWC Offensive Player of the Year, QB John Beck, we expect some growing pains for BYU early in the year. The Cougars also are already on everyone's radar screen since they went 11-2 last season and this included a blowout win over Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. As a result, we have no doubt Coach Stoops has reminded his team of what happened to the Ducks in last season's bowl!

The fact is that the Wildcats did knock off BYU last season to open up the year so the Cougars are looking for revenge. However, the changes are too great for BYU to adjust to this early in the season. If the Cougars squeak this one out it will be on a late field goal and the road win for the Wildcats is what we expect to see. There is great value with taking the handful of points as a result. Keep in mind, revenge or not, roster turnover is critical in early season handicapping. Play Arizona plus the points.

Free Pick: Arizona +3½

**crackerjack** · 09-01-07, 10:11 AM

I actually like BYU in this one, but he makes some good points.

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:26 AM

Duke +4½ hosting Connecticut

Game Time: 09/01/2007 02:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Duke went winless in 12 games last year, but they are facing a Connecticut team here that is in transition on both sides of the ball. Look for Duke to pull the home upset.

The Duke Blue Devils are coming off of an atrocious 0-12 season while the Connecticut Huskies are expected to be improved this year, yet this line has dropped a full point since its opening.

The simple reason for that is that this is a rare winnable game for Duke, especially playing at home. After all, the Connecticut defense was awful against the run last year allowing an abysmal 178.5 rushing yards per game, and the defensive line is totally revamped this season. While that may actually be a positive in the long run, that unit will take its lumps early in the year until the linemen gain some valuable experience. Moreover, the entire linebacking corps has just one player returning from last season.

Offensively, the Huskies should have a solid running game with Donald Brown, but there is little else to get excited about. Last year’s quarterback D.J. Hernandez has now been converted to wide receiver, as Tyler Lorenzen begins the year as the starting signal-caller. Lorenzen barely beat out Dennis Brown for the job, but there could be some controversy here, especially if Lorenzen gets off to a slow start. On top of that, the receiving corps is inexperienced.

Now the Blue Devils will have their problems defensively also, so this game could very well come down to which team gets the better quarterback play. Well, while the Huskies’ passing tandem is in transition, quarterback Thaddeus Lewis returns for Duke. Lewis was not in the best of situations last season when forced to start as a freshman, but he did throw a commendable 11 touchdowns while gaining some nice experience. He also has his top two targets from last season to throw to again this year in Jomar Wright and Eron Riley, who combined for over 1,200 receiving yards in 2006.

We look for Duke to put up enough points on the inexperienced Connecticut defense here to put an end to their long losing streak.

Free Pick: Duke +4½

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:28 AM

Oklahoma State (+6) at Georgia

Game Time: 09/01/2007 06:45 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Oklahoma State's dangerous offense will be a problem for Georgia's young defense today. Take the Cowboys and the points to cover at Sanford Stadium against the Bulldogs.

Oklahoma St. is back in the national spotlight after winning six regular season games last season and capping it off with a victory over Alabama in the Independence Bowl. Expectations are higher in 2007 and with 15 starters back, the Cowboys could surpass those seven wins from last season.

Georgia wants to make a run in the SEC once again after a somewhat disappointing 8-4 regular season last year. The offense should improve but the defense has a lot of holes to fill.

Stopping Oklahoma St. receiver Adarius Bowman and an offense that averaged 35.2 ppg in 2006 is the main goal for the Bulldogs, but that job depends on a defense which returns just three starters. Last year’s linebackers had 91 combined starts but have since moved on to the NFL. Senior Brandon Miller is the only returning linebacker with a Division-I start. Defensive ends Quentin Moses and Charles Johnson combined for 14 of the defense’s 33 sacks in 2006. However, they are also now on NFL rosters.

Georgia brings back most of its skill players on offense but one huge problem is that the 'Dawgs lost three starters to graduation along the offensive line.

The Cowboys are going to be better on defense this year and it starts in the middle. Oklahoma St. linebackers Chris Collins and Patrick Lavine were named to the Butkus Award’s preseason watch list and the Cowboys are the only Big 12 school and one of only seven schools nationally with two players named to the list.

Special teams can often make or break a winner. Wile the Bulldogs have one of the best in kicker Brandon Coutu, the Cowboys are not far behind. Jason Ricks converted 10-of-12 field goal attempts as a sophomore in 2006, booting a 53-yarder in the season-opener against Missouri State. He finished the season by knocking in each of his last seven attempts. This game is more evenly matched that most people are aware of and the line is not taking that into consideration.

The potent Cowboys offense going up against the rebuilding Georgia defense sets up a great situation for Oklahoma St. Play on underdogs of 3½ to 10 points that are returning eight or more offensive starters, including the quarterback, going up against an opponent that is returning five or fewer starters on defense in the first month of the season. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +4.1 ppg in favor of the Cowboys.

Outright win, perhaps? Play the Oklahoma St. Cowboys for one Unit.

Free Pick: Oklahoma State +6 (-113)

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:28 AM

Colorado St. +2½ vs Colorado

Game Time: 09/01/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

These two Rocky Mountain rivals are coming off poor seasons and looking to get back to their winning ways. Take Sonny Lubick and his Colorado State Rams over the Buffaloes in Denver.

Sonny Lubick's Colorado State Rams take on Dan Hawkins' Colorado Buffaloes in Denver as both teams look to rebound off poor seasons last year.

The key in this contest is CSU's Caleb Hanie, a senior signal caller who opposes Cody Hawkins, a quarterback making his first start at this level. With the Rams a mind-boggling 13-1-1 against the spread as dogs of 4 or fewer points, we'll grab the points in this upset maker today.

Free Pick: Colorado State +2½

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:30 AM

BC Eagles (-6) vs WF Deacon Demons

Game Time: 09/01/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Wake Forest came out of nowhere to win the ACC a year ago, and teams will not take them lightly this year. That begins today when Boston College are the play at home vs the Demons.

You can look at this game from a number of different perspectives, and I’ll share those with you right now. Wake Forest is the reigning ACC Champ as they put forth a Cinderella type season under head coach Jim Grobe and took home the ACC hardware for the first time since 1970 after being selected last in the preseason ACC poll. How’s that for irony?

Anyway, this club managed to fight through the adversity of losing their #1 QB and RB early on in the season and still managed an 11-3 record. However, the ACC was way down as a whole last year, and the entire league will be gunning for these guys throughout all of ’07. The Demon Deacons caught a ton of breaks throughout their championship season, and those types of breaks usually seem to go against you the second time around.

Boston College is now under the watchful eye of Jeff Jagodzinski who’s been up in Green Bay the last five years serving as the Packers' TE Coach and OC. He’s got a very talented squad on his hands that has 16 overall starters back in fold led by a couple of premiere players on both sides of the ball.

The offense is led by a healthy Matt Ryan who had himself a monster ’06 campaign despite nursing an injury the whole way through. Even though they’re instituting a new zone-blocking scheme, this offense shouldn’t skip a beat. Especially against this Wake Forest bunch that loses a number of impact players that increased its DEF YPP average to 21.0 from 13.4 the year before.

I have all the respect in the world for Grobe and the way he gets his team to play in the dog role, but his club is severely up against it today vs. a BC club they were lucky to get past a year ago. Look for Ryan to have a big afternoon here as he threw for 400+ yards in last year’s game, but his two end zone picks ultimately cost the Eagles the straight up victory.

To some, this line looks utterly ridiculous, but it’s only telling me one thing: BC or nothing. We’ll back the men from Chestnut Hill as they take this one by double-digits then head out to Raleigh to take care of some unfinished business and avenge one of their other three losses from ’06.

Free Pick: Boston College -6 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-01-07, 10:31 AM

On Oklahoma State (+6) at Georgia Bulldogs

Game Time: 09/01/2007 06:45 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

An explosive offense meets an inexperienced defense, who ya' got? Burn the books in this one with Oklahoma State plus the points on the road at Georgia.

Oklahoma State was potent offensively last season and the Cowboys should be explosive on that side of the ball once again.

QB Bobby Reid racked up 24 touchdowns and 2,266 yards through the air while also running for 500 yards and five scores. His 2,766 yards of total offense was the second highest total in program history. Note that Reid's favorite target Adarius Bowman returns. That's worth mentioning as Bowman made 60 catches for 1,187 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Dangerous Dantrell Savage will run behind a line that returns four starters.

Reid and Co. will face a Georgia defense which returns only three starters from last season. The Bulldogs were just 3-8 against the spread at home the past two years and a poor 6-11 ATS when listed as the favorite. Consider taking the points with the more experienced visitors.

Free Pick: Oklahoma State +6

**onlooker** · 09-01-07, 11:33 AM

I agree with Mike Rose on Boston College, but I got them at -5.5. All the others I have no action on.