Tuesday December 23 Bowl Game Picks & Predictions

SBR Andy · 2025-12-23T14:38:02+00:00

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs Louisville prediction from Rob Paul:

Louisville -6.5 (-118 DraftKings)
"Toledo is depleted heading into the Boca Raton Bowl. Head coach Jason Candle left for UConn, defensive coordinator Vince Kehres left for Syracuse, and four key starters are in the transfer portal. Additionally, starting quarterback Tucker Gleason isn't expected to play.

So while Louisville is dealing with several injuries, the Cardinals are in better shape. Star pass-rusher Clev Lubin leads a Louisville defense poised to shut down a Rockets offense that's ranked just No. 70 by SP+, and that was with Gleason in the lineup.

Miller Moss should only need a handful of scoring drives to win this decisively."

Miller Moss, QB, Louisville: Anytime TD (+310 FanDuel)
"If we knew what Louisville's running back situation would be today, the best TD bet would likely focus on the Cardinals' starting running back. But head coach Jeff Brohm has been playing coy about which of his top three running backs will be available.

While my best guess is Keyjuan Brown will play, his price to score is sitting at -185 (though I do like him to score twice at +290 via FanDuel). Instead, I think the best value is banking on Moss to score his 10th touchdown of the season.

Although the USC transfer isn't much of a scrambler, he's a QB sneak connoisseur. Moss has tallied a rushing touchdown in eight of his 11 games this season, including in seven of his last eight and in three straight."

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Louisville TD SGP
"It's not clear which running back will play for Louisville, but Brohm has implied he will have at least one of them. With Keyjuan Brown seemingly the most likely to play, I love parlaying him and Moss to both find the end zone against Toledo. An SGP on both to score is priced at +503 at FanDuel."

Toledo vs. Louisville best odds: Boca Raton Bowl

Toledo vs. Louisville betting trends

SBR Andy · 2025-12-23T14:42:10+00:00

New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss prediction from Rob Paul

Western Kentucky -1.5 (-106 FanDuel)
"In Charles Huff's first season as head coach, he led the Golden Eagles to a 7-5 record. But now he's off to Memphis, and Southern Miss has to play a Western Kentucky team that's 9-3 ATS.

Southern Miss is riding a three-game losing streak and has one of the worst defenses of any eligible team (ranked No. 103 by SP+). With the emergence of Rodney Tisdale Jr. at QB for the Hilltoppers, WKU can win a high-scoring shootout in the Big Easy.

WKU is averaging 34.7 PPG in Tisdale's four starts against G5 teams."

Matthew Henry, WR, Western Kentucky: Anytime TD (+105 DraftKings)
"After a hot start to the season, Matthew Henry's production began to dip due to inconsistent QB play. But the emergence of Tisdale behind center has unlocked the former FCS All-Americans' big-play ability.

Despite starting just five games, Tisdale won Conference USA Freshman of the Year while elevating WKU's offense to No. 50 in the country in PPG (29.8).

His connection with Henry has been a big reason why, with the receiver putting up 22 receptions for 311 yards and three TDs on 32 targets in Tisdale's four starts against G5 teams.

With Southern Miss's defensive struggles and star cornerback Josh Moten's availability being unclear, the Tisdale to Henry connection should be on full display in New Orleans."

Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss best odds: New Orleans Bowl

Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss betting trends

SBR Andy · 2025-12-23T14:45:49+00:00

Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs Ohio prediction from Rob Paul:

UNLV -6.5 (-111 Caesars)
"With Ohio dealing with a scandal involving now-fired head coach Brian Smith, and the Bobcats' offense not being as prolific as UNLV's, the Rebels are poised to run away with this game. Dan Mullen's offense is ranked No. 17 in the country by SP+ and is sixth in PPG (35.9) among G6 programs.

Led by Anthony Colandrea and Jai'Den Thomas, UNLV has covered the spread in three of its last four, and should light up a Bobcats defense that was middling in the MAC this season.

Ohio has failed to cover in three straight games."

Jai'Den Thomas, RB, UNLV: 2+ TDs (+165 DraftKings)
"You don't earn the nickname "Jet" by not burning defenses for touchdowns. Thomas has racked up 33 touchdowns in three seasons with the Rebels, including a team-high 13 this season.

He's one of the most explosive running backs in the country, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and ranking 11th in the G6 in both forced missed tackles (48) and 15-plus-yard runs (15).

His big-play ability is what makes him special, with his breakaway rate being the sixth-highest in the country (53.7%).

Thomas is priced as short as -330 to score once, which is why I'm banking on him having his second multi-TD performance in three games. The last one came against Nevada, when he ran for four scores on just 11 carries."

Runnin' Rebels TD SGP
"The best TD bet for the Frisco Bowl might actually be an SGP. Both Thomas and Colandrea are priced so short to score, but by parlaying them both to score at Caesars, you get plus-money odds (+152). Thomas leads the team in TDs, but Colandrea isn't far behind (9) and has scored eight times in his last eight games."

UNLV vs. Ohio best odds: Frisco Bowl

UNLV vs. Ohio betting trends