Tuesday MACtion Predictions

SBR Andy · 2025-11-25T16:32:51+00:00

SBR's Mike Spector shares some betting insight in his Bowling Green vs UMass prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Game prediction: Bowling Green -14.5 (-108 via Caesars)

"Bowling Green was being given a ton of respect last week as 3.5-point betting favorites against an Akron team that had two more conference wins at the time. But even though the Falcons squandered a second half lead in last week’s 19-16 loss, it is still not ripe to be upset by the worst FBS program.

Since a shocking upset of Toledo, one of five MAC teams with two or fewer conference losses, Bowling Green has lost five straight games, while being held to six or fewer points twice.

In a 28-3 loss to Buffalo in its previous home game, Falcons quarterback Hunter Najm finished with a 36% completion percentage while averaging an average depth of target of 14.4 yards. Bowling Green also entered its last game generating a quality drive on fewer than 27% of its possessions, the seventh-worst rate among FBS teams.

But if UMass’ latest 42-14 loss to Ohio showed us anything, it’s that one does not necessarily need a complex or feared passing attack to score on the Minutemen. Ohio attempted just eight passes and threw for 28 total yards, but still managed 42 points on the strength of a running game that churned out 363 yards and 6.4 yards per carry.

Bowling Green has covered 61.1% of its road games since the 2023 season. Conversely, UMass is a poor 3-8 ATS this season, and has not covered any of its six games when playing on equal rest as its opponent."

Best prop bet: UMass team total Under 14.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

"Even if the Bowling Green offense continues to struggle as it has while averaging just 13.4 points during a five-game losing streak, the UMass offense is even worse.

The Minutemen snapped a streak of scoring fewer than two touchdowns in seven of eight games with a two-touchdown “breakout” in their last game against Ohio.

But this is still a UMass team that entered that game ranked 128th in EPA/Rush and 135th in EPA/Pass, and managed only 215 total yards against the Bobcats. That is especially concerning, considering Ohio’s defense entered ranked 128th or worse early downs EPA allowed, available yards allowed, and EPA/Pass allowed.

UMass also added special teams concerns to their list of flaws, missing two field goals in the first half last week. And with rain in the forecast for this game, that lowers the ceiling even more for the Minutemen offense."

Bowling Green vs. UMass best odds

Bowling Green vs. UMass betting trends

Bowling Green vs. UMass weather

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s in the early evening on Tuesday in Amherst, accompanied by a 55% chance of precipitation. The chance of precipitation increases to 70% in the evening.

SBR Andy · 2025-11-25T16:36:09+00:00

SBR's Mike Spector offers his Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan best bets and TD picks:

Noah Kim Over 198.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"Western Michigan’s run defense had allowed 3.6 yards per carry and 121 rushing yards per game before allowing Northern Illinois to run for 174 yards in the last game. But outside of a 43-yard Telly Johnson Jr. run, the Huskies averaged 3.4 yards per carry on their other 42 attempts.

With the Broncos likely to make yet another opponent one-dimensional, I expect Eastern Michigan to attack early and often through the air.

Noah Kim ranks in the top 35 in passing yards and completions per game, and the top 50 in passing touchdowns, passing yards per game, and points responsible for.

Eastern Michigan also has had at least one 100-yard receiver or rusher in six straight games (three rushing, three receiving). With the likelihood low that one of its running backs cracks the 100-yard barrier, it bodes well for Kim’s chances of cashing this Over if the Eagles can finish with another 100-yard receiver."

Broc Lowry Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+142 via FanDuel)

"Western Michigan rushed for 361 yards, 6.1 yards per carry, and five touchdowns in its last game, taking advantage of a Northern Illinois defense that had ranked 107th in EPA per play and 125th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.

The Broncos showed off their depth with three 100-yard rushers, and I am banking on them employing another run-heavy attack this week.

I am only rating this a three-star play because Western Michigan ranks 40th in Success Rate and is in the top 20 in red-zone scoring. But the Eagles have held back-to-back opponents to 260 or fewer total yards for the first time since 2018, so red zone trips may be few and far between for the Broncos."

Dontae McMillan Anytime touchdown scorer (+135 via FanDuel) 

"Eastern Michigan running back Dontae McMillan needs 97 rushing yards to become the 15th player in school history with 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He is 46th in the country in yards per carry, 39th in rushing yards per game, and 38th in all-purpose yards.

Oddsmakers do not expect McMillan to reach the 1,000-yard plateau, setting his O/U for rushing yards at 72.5 for the game. But McMillan has four 100-yard rushing performances and averages 5.7 yards per carry on first down.

I expect him to be given plenty of opportunities to make school history, and it should pay off at least one touch with a score. This is a confident four-star best touchdown scorer bet, as Eastern Michigan is one of two FBS teams with a 100% red zone success rate."

Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan best odds

stevenash · 2025-11-25T19:56:13+00:00

Here's a fun fact I stumbled upon earlier that made me think and rethink it because it caught me by surprise.

After the final whistle blows tonight in tonight's W. Michigan - E. Michigan game, that'll officially mark the end of a 49 consecutive-day streak of either an NCAA or NFL football game.

The MAC didn't schedule a midweek game on Thanksgiving Eve this season.
Slackers.

Thanks, Andy, for these football projection threads, the bonus threads, and everything else in between the past two months. That work can become tedious at times. I appreciate all the effort that goes into them.

Happy Thanksgiving if you celebrate the US Thanksgiving in November.
If you celebrated Thanksgiving last month, well, Happy Thursday.

Seven consecutive weeks of football, that's a boatload of football games.