Thursday night CFB sees an American Conference matchup between the Roadrunners and Bulls at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
SBR's Mike Spector offers some betting insight in his UTSA vs South Florida prediction:
Over/Under pick: Over 68.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Game prediction: South Florida -14 (-110 via BetMGM)
"UTSA gave its conference championship hopes a significant boost with a dominant 48-26 home win as 5.5-point underdogs against Tulane last week. But the Roadrunners have been a poor road team thus far (1-3), and I expect South Florida to improve its home record to 5-0 while covering this large spread.
While Tulane entered its game against UTSA at 6-1 with a strong claim to being a contender in the American, the metrics in hindsight show it was an overvalued favorite against UTSA.
The Green Wave came into that contest sitting outside the top 100 in EPA per rush, which was a massive reason why they were behind the chains often on early downs (the team ranks outside the top 70 in early-down success). Additionally, Tulane’s defense ranked 125th in EPA per pass allowed.
Tulane didn't help itself while committing three first-half turnovers and missing a field goal, and that was largely responsible for UTSA’s 31 unanswered points before halftime.
Meanwhile, South Florida is 4-1-1 against the spread as a home favorite since the start of last season, and the team covered during its only game coming off a loss this year. It's also won five consecutive home matchups by an average of 34 points. Then there's UTSA, which is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road outings against non-AP-ranked teams."
Best prop bet: Byrum Brown Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-114 via FanDuel)
"Byrum Brown is the only FBS quarterback with at least 17 passing and eight rushing touchdowns this season. He's a significant reason why the Bulls boast the sixth-ranked scoring offense, and why they've totaled 30-plus points in six games this season.
However, the main reason for backing the Under on Brown’s 2.5 passing touchdowns is South Florida’s recent success running the football. The Bulls rank 11th nationally in rushing, and they've totaled 250-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games.
South Florida should lean on its running game against a UTSA defense that entered last week 28th in EPA per pass but 106th in defending the run."
SBR's Mike Spector offers some betting insight in his UTSA vs South Florida prediction:
Over/Under pick: Over 68.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Game prediction: South Florida -14 (-110 via BetMGM)
"UTSA gave its conference championship hopes a significant boost with a dominant 48-26 home win as 5.5-point underdogs against Tulane last week. But the Roadrunners have been a poor road team thus far (1-3), and I expect South Florida to improve its home record to 5-0 while covering this large spread.
While Tulane entered its game against UTSA at 6-1 with a strong claim to being a contender in the American, the metrics in hindsight show it was an overvalued favorite against UTSA.
The Green Wave came into that contest sitting outside the top 100 in EPA per rush, which was a massive reason why they were behind the chains often on early downs (the team ranks outside the top 70 in early-down success). Additionally, Tulane’s defense ranked 125th in EPA per pass allowed.
Tulane didn't help itself while committing three first-half turnovers and missing a field goal, and that was largely responsible for UTSA’s 31 unanswered points before halftime.
Meanwhile, South Florida is 4-1-1 against the spread as a home favorite since the start of last season, and the team covered during its only game coming off a loss this year. It's also won five consecutive home matchups by an average of 34 points. Then there's UTSA, which is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road outings against non-AP-ranked teams."
Best prop bet: Byrum Brown Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-114 via FanDuel)
"Byrum Brown is the only FBS quarterback with at least 17 passing and eight rushing touchdowns this season. He's a significant reason why the Bulls boast the sixth-ranked scoring offense, and why they've totaled 30-plus points in six games this season.
However, the main reason for backing the Under on Brown’s 2.5 passing touchdowns is South Florida’s recent success running the football. The Bulls rank 11th nationally in rushing, and they've totaled 250-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games.
South Florida should lean on its running game against a UTSA defense that entered last week 28th in EPA per pass but 106th in defending the run."
