System Picks/Scoring Point Differential

Bluewater · 11-04-25, 02:39 PM

Mahalo Wahine. Here’s my 2 cents Ohio U 65% of the money and 72% of the bets on Ohio U. Tells me John pub on Ohio but line not moving yet which may mean the so called pros are on Miami Oh will wait to see if there’s any line move closer to game time. While Akr. Is getting 82% or the money and 78% of the bets Humm? Any who ,sorry to high jack your post just thinking out loud

Aunty808 · 11-04-25, 11:20 PM

You are welcomed to leave your thoughts any time!
I was looking at the numbers at scoresandodds and they had Miami at 73% bets and 90% money on Ohio. I am still learning this part of capping, not sure what's what just yet.

I was in a rush this morning and really didn't look over the plays. I went over the numbers when I got home and found that the better chance of winning was with Akron and OVER in the "Higher ranked teams in Off/Def in 5Factors + highter ranked Pass Def YPA" group. I did the individual breakdown on that game and the numbers, both OFF/DEF, favored Akron. When I breakdown the games, the numbers paint a clearer picture of who "should win. Here's the breakdown for the Akron game.

5FACTORS
(DER)Drive Efficiency Rating: The % of drives that end in a scoring opportunity (TD or FG attempt)
(BR)Boom Rate: The % of drives where the offense averaged more than 10 yards per play.
WDR)Wasted Drive Rate: The % of drives that end in a turnover or a four-and-out.
(RZE)Red Zone Efficiency: The average points scored on drives that reach the redzone (30 yards to goal).
(YTG)Average Yard to Goal: The average distance where the offense starts its drives.

(Overall Rank)/DER/BR/WDR/RZE/YTG

OFFENSE
Mass (134) ....134/128/135/134/123
Akron-10' (132) ....119/117/114/120/94

DEFENSE
Mass (136) ...128/110/128/134/111
Akron-10' (119) ...64/118/65/35/109

**I need to mention here.......Rank 1 is the best. Rank 136 is the worse. (136 FBS 1-A Teams)

Remember I did this last week with the Indy/Maryland game? Indy kicked some serious butt!

OFFENSE
Indiana ........2/23/24/39/56/22
Maryland.......84/92/131/88/81/33

DEFENSE
Indiana...........6/11/7/41/4/13
Maryland.......22/21/80/40/65/44

i'll message you the link to the 5Factors so you can do the breakdown for whichever games you are interested in. I'm gonna spend my day off tomorrow doing the Saturday games. If I have time, I'll try and breakdown as many games as I can.

**If anyone who visits this thread is interested in any particular game, let me know andI will breakdown the game for you.

Gonna eat dinner now....laters.....
I just heard on the news, tomorrow is gonna be a super moon.......watch out! funny stuff happens when the moon is full!!

Bluewater · 11-04-25, 11:51 PM

My theory for money and bets percentage is to guess who Joe public and the pros are on if the money percentage is higher than the betting percentage then I tend to think that’s big money coming in on said team and if the betting percentage is higher with a low money percentage then I figure it’s Joe on said team so will tend to lean against them. Of course that’s not all I use to cap a game that’s why I like to check your tread for the info you have. Mahalo again

Aunty808 · 11-06-25, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by Bluewater

My theory for money and bets percentage is to guess who Joe public and the pros are on if the money percentage is higher than the betting percentage then I tend to think that’s big money coming in on said team and if the betting percentage is higher with a low money percentage then I figure it’s Joe on said team so will tend to lean against them. Of course that’s not all I use to cap a game that’s why I like to check your tread for the info you have. Mahalo again

I'm getting the hang of it. I use the contest percentages as my guide cause I know the source of my numbers. The contest has two group, the general public entered, and the "Team Experts", AKA the "Pros".Your bets and money/handle is my Joe Public (bets) and money/handle the "Team Experts" , the Pros.
One glaring difference is my Pros tell me who to FADE. Whenever the percentage is 90% or higher, that's an automatic FADE.

Yesterday as an example, I entered the NBA contest because Philadelphia+10 at Clev had a 100%. The two things I noticed with this contest is when the percentage is 90% or higher and a DOG with a high percentage. They cannot pick a DOG, it almost always loses. And yesterday was a double whammy....100% and the pick was a DOG!! As a lot of posters on other boards would say, EZ Money!!...lol.

I'm thinking of starting a thread and when I come across plays like that I can share it here and we can track them and maybe members can make some $$$$.

I am behind schedule this week because yesterday I got totally distracted. I spent the almost entire day going through my chicken scratch notebooks, looking for a certain set of numbers (games). All said and done, this is what I ended up with that group of games I started tracking since Week 6.........

S/U TOTAL 55-11 (83.3%)
Wk6 10-1
Wk 7 13-2
Wk 8 14-3
Wk 9 11-2
Wk 10 8-3

ATS TOTAL 38-26 (59.3%)
Wk6 7-4
Wk7 10-4-1
Wk8 9-8
Wk9 8-4-1
Wk 10 5-6

O/U TOTAL 38-26 (59.3%) (O/U W-L Record)
Record reflects PLAYING ON whatever the System spits out.
Wk6 5-5-1.......(OV 3-3 / UN 2-2-1)
Wk7 9-5-1.......(OV 5-4-1 / UN 4-0)
Wk8 7-10.........(OV 3-8 / UN 4-2)
Wk9 10-3.........(OV 8-1 / UN 2-2)
WK10 7-4..........(OV 3-2 / UN 4-2)

Oh my goodness...real portagee yeah?....lol
I'm way behind schedule this week....haven't even started my NFL yet. I'll probably post the rest of the System Picks later this evening or tomorrow. I have the day off tomorrow so I'll have time then.

good luck braddah!!

Aunty808 · 11-07-25, 01:10 PM

**Note: System is showing signs of regression this week. I'm posting the groups with an opinion to fade or follow. Usually when the weekday games trend in a certain direction, the rest of the weekend trends in the same direction. But, hey, it's football.....you just never know how these games will turn out. Use caution! Do your homework!!
Tuesday - Friday Games
Both teams with a Negative SRS - Play DOG
(*indicates O/U point differential was more than 3)
Mass+10' at Akron............Mass 10-44 LL...........OV49' W
Mia Oh+3' at Ohio............Mia Oh 20-24 LL.......*OV49' L
KentSt+2' at Ball St..........Kent St 13-17 LL.........*OV46' L
Geo So+6' at App St.......Geo So 25-23 WW...*UN62' W

Watch the early games, if favs continue to win, maybe not a good idea to fade the dogs this week.

Saturday games
Temple at Army-6'...........*OV47'
Mizzo St at Liberty-7'........UN50'
BGreen at EMich-1'...........UN51'
UAB at Rice-3.....................OV53'
FIU-1' at MTST.....................*UN52'
Jax St-1' at UTEP................OV49
Tulsa at Fla Atl-4'............*UN64'
Geo St at CoCar-7'.........*UN56'
Stan at NCar-8'................OV41
Tex St-2' at LaLaff............*UN64'
AF at SJST-4..................... UN66
Nev at Utah St-10............UN52'
UNLV-6 at Col St..............UN62
Sam Hou at Oreg St-19..OV52'
=====================
Tuesday - Friday Games
4-0 Teams - Fade the 4-0 team
These teams are the higher ranked teams in 4 catagories.
Akron-10'.......Play Mass.......10-44 LL.......OV49' W
Ohio-3'...........Play Mia Oh...20-24 LL.....*OV49' L
Toledo-14......Play No Ill.......3-42 LL..........OV41 W
Memphis-6...Play Tulane

Not a good idea fading these teams this week, Play on the 4-0 teams.

Saturday Games
SMU-12 at BC........................OV55
Ohio St-28' at Purdue.......UN48'
La Tech-4' at Delaware....UN57'
Char ar ECar-28'.................*UN55'
Auburn at Vandy-7...........*OV53'
Kenn St-7 at NMST............*UN53'
Calif at Louis-18'.................OV50'
WForest at Virg-6'............*OV48
LSU at Ala-10'.....................UN50
Fla-3 at Kentucky............OV45'
Sam Hou at Oreg St-19......OV52'

gonna take a break, be rigtht back.

Bluewater · 11-07-25, 01:43 PM

Keep it coming aunty thanks

Aunty808 · 11-07-25, 03:14 PM

I spent a day looking through all the games from week 6, the week I started tracking, for teams with a Negative Scoring point. They say defense wins championships. Well, teams with a negative scoring point are teams with the best defense. According to this method, Ohio State has the best defense with a negative scoring point of -12.38, followed by Indiana with a negatie scoring point of -8.19.

We PLAY ON the team with the Negative Scoring point in this group.
Results
S/U TOTAL 55-11 (83.3%)
Wk6 10-1
Wk 7 13-2
Wk 8 14-3
Wk 9 11-2
Wk 10 8-3

ATS TOTAL 38-26 (59.3%)
Wk6 7-4
Wk7 10-4-1
Wk8 9-8
Wk9 8-4-1
Wk 10 5-6

O/U TOTAL 38-26 (59.3%) (O/U W-L Record)
Record reflects PLAYING ON whatever the System spits out.
Wk6 5-5-1.......(OV 3-3 / UN 2-2-1)
Wk7 9-5-1.......(OV 5-4-1 / UN 4-0)
Wk8 7-10.........(OV 3-8 / UN 4-2)
Wk9 10-3.........(OV 8-1 / UN 2-2)
WK10 7-4..........(OV 3-2 / UN 4-2)

Week 11 Plays
Play team with NSP (Negative Scoring Point)
(*O/U indicates differential is more than 3 points)
Indy-14............*OV49
Geo-7'...............UN56'
Ohio St-28'......UN48'
Syr at Mia Fla-28......OV46'
Navy at ND-25...........*UN56
Fla-3' at Kentucky.....OV45'

*Note: How teams fared since week 6 in this group.
Indy - S/U 4-0 ...........ATS 3-1 (O/U 0-4) OV 0-2 / UN 0-2
Geo - S/U 3-0 ............ATS 2-1 (O/U 1-3) OV 0-0 / UN 1-2
Ohio St - S/U 4-0 - ATS 4-0 (O/U 2-2) OV 2-1 / UN 0-1
Mia Fla - S/U 2-2 - ATS 2-2 (O/U 2-2) OV 1-1 / UN 2-0
ND - S/U 3-0 - ATS 2-1 (O/U 0-3) OV 0-3 / UN 0-0
Fla - S/U 4-0 - ATS 2-2 (O/U 3-1 ) OV 1-0 / UN 2-1
======

I broke it down further.
If the team is a dog with a negative scoring point
Results
S/U 4-5
ATS 5-4

Plays- Pretty even here, fade or follow
Nwstrn at USC-14'.............UN52
Auburn at Vandy-7..........*OV45'

If both teams has a negative scoring point, play the FAV
Results
S/U 11-0
ATS 8-3
O/U 7-4 (OV 3-2) - (UN 4-2)

Plays
BYU at Tex Tech-10.............*OV52'
Oreg -6 at Iowa...................*OV43
LSU at Alabama-10'............UN50

Note:
BYU - First time in this group, but has been in the NSP method four times
S/U 4-0 - ATS 3-1 ..........(O/U 3-1) OV 3-1 / UN 0-0

Oregon - First time in the group, but has been in the NSP method three times.
S/U 3-0 - ATS 2-1 (O/U 1-2) OV 1-2 / UN 0-0

Alabama - Second time in this group. Week 9 at So Carolina, won S/U but lost ATS. System predicted the game to go UNDER the total, but total went OVER. Three other times, Alabama has been in the NSP method.
S/U 3-0 - ATS 2-0-1 (O/U 0-2-1) OV 0-2-1 / UN 0-0

Last post will be the 3 point differential group.

Aunty808 · 11-07-25, 03:36 PM

Games with a Scoring Point Differential of more than 3 points.
I started out FADING these O/U, but over the last few weeks, it kinda normalize. So I'll just list what the System is kicking out.
Tuesday -Friday games
Mia Oh/Ohio 49'..........+3.69 OV....L (44)
Kent St/Ball St 46'.......+7.93 OV....L (30)
Geo So/App St 62'......-3.37 UN.....W (48)
UTSA/So Fla 68'..................-7.23 UN...L (78)
Tulane/Memphis 55'..-3.57 UN
=====

Saturday Games
Indy/Penn St 49.........................+9.52OV
BYU/Tex Tech52'........................+3.20OV
Col/WVirg58'..............................-7.23UN
SoMiss/Ark St58........................-6.88UN
Temple/Army47'.......................+3.16OV
Mary/Rutgers58'.......................-3.55UN
FIU/MTST52'................................-4.12UN
Char/ECar55.............................-3.88UN
Tulsa/Fla Atl64'........................-5.07UN
Oreg/Iowa43'.............................+7.0 0OV
Duke/UConn65'........................-3.98UN
Auburn/Vandy45'....................+3.10OV
Kenn St/NMST53'......................-4.05UN
Geo St/CoCar56'......................-3.62UN
Wash/Wisc45'.............................+4.9 5OV
Tex St/LaLaff64'..........................-4.50UN
WForest /Virg48..........................+4.08OV
Navy/ND56....................................-3.80UN
Neb/UCLA44.................................+ 7.57OV

GL2A