System Picks - Week 2

[Aunty808]

** I started posting on another site when I got frustrated from getting the error message here. I just C/P to save time typing.

Last week I added another tool to the system picks. I added the team that ranked higher in Offense and Defense in the five catagories listed below.

Drive Efficiency Rating: The % of drives that end in a scoring opportunity (TD or FG attempt)
Boom Rate: The % of drives where the offense averaged more than 10 yards per play.
Wasted Drive Rate: The % of drives that end in a turnover or a four-and-out.
Red Zone Efficiency: The average points scored on drives that reach the redzone (30 yards to goal).
Average Yard to Goal: The average distance where the offense starts its drives.

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SRS

Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.



The overall win/loss record was

S/U - 30-7 (81.08%)

ATS -20-16-1 (55.5%)



I wish I found this tool earlier in the season to see how it performed from the beginning of the season, instead of just last week. I think, IMHO, this is the most reliable system I've done because by using the two different sets of data (SRS & 5Factors), it paints a true picture of who the best/worse teams are, according to the numbers. By capping the games individually, we add the human elements to the game.

The three groups are

1- Cream of the Crop- PLAY ON HIGHER RANKING TEAM IN OFF & DEF (5Factors) and PLAY OVER

Both teams with a positive SRS- These teams are supposed to be the best of the best this season. In this group last week:

S/U - 11-3

ATS 10-4 Home 7-1 / Road 3-3

O/U 11-3 Home 7-1 / Road 4-2



PLAY ON FAV & PLAY OVER

I am not listing the O/U numbers. Find the best number to play the over.

Penn St at Ohio St-20'

Mia Fla-10 at SMU

Rutgers at Illinois-12'

Duke at Clemson-3'

ECar-4' at Temple

Indy-21'at Maryland

Georgia-7' at Florida

Tex Tech-7' at Kansas St

Arizona-4' at Colorado

Geo Tech-7' at NCST

USC-6' at Nebraska

Kentucky at Auburn-10

Wake Forest at Fla St-8

Cinn at Utah-7

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2- This group of teams has one team with a positve SRS and the other with a negative SRS. Supposedly, the team with the positve SRS is the better team. So we are taking the team with the positive SRS who is also the higher ranked team of the 5Factor. These are the teams that cause us grief. They know they're good because they win the games S/U, but the grief they give us is that they don't cover the spread. This is where the conspiracy and fixed games live. I haven't really checked, but I think this is the group of teams that members of covers always calls for an investigation.......I got MOOSED!....lol. Last weeks record is based on PLAYING FAV and PLAY OVER.

Last week

S/U - 15-0

ATS - 6-9 (40%) Home 4-4 / Road 2-5

O/U - 10-5 Home 5-3 / Road 5-2



Plays- I'm listing what the system is picking, based on taking the FAV and the OVER, you can FADE or FOLLOW.



Utep at Kenn St-9'/50'............(Kenn St won 33-20 OVER50')

Marshall-3' at Co Car

Memphis-14 at Rice

Sam Hou at La Tech-16'

WVirginia at Houston-15'

Louisville-10 at VTech

NDame-28' at BCollege

Pittsburgh-14 at Stanford

Fresno St at Boise St-17'

Virginia-4' at California

Ok St at Kansas-24'

Purdue at Michigan-21

Wyoming at SDST-11

Wash St-3' at Oregon St

Arkansas St at Troy-7'

Old Dom-14' at ULMonroe



**Note - Last week in this group, there were two FAVS who also fell into the 4-0 group (FADE). Michigan won S/U but failed to cover the number. Boise St, depending what your line was, either won, lost or Pushed. I had 21 and Pushed.

This week, there's two more team that also fall into the 4-0 group (FADE). They are Old Dom and Wash St.

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3- This is the bottom of the barrel teams. Both teams have a negative SRS.....Junk vs Junk, Bad vs Bad. That's why the DOG lives here. This is their only chance to win a game! We FADE the higher ranked team of the 5Factor. This is the only group where the UNDER won more times than the OVER, but not by much. Bad offenses, Bad defenses, can't score, can't stop the scoring...FADE or FOLLOW.

Last week

S/U 4-5 Home 2-1 / Road 2-2

ATS 2-5 Home 1-2 / Road 1-3

O/U 3-4 Home 2-1 / Road 2-2



TAKE THE DOG

JaxSt at Middle Tenn St+3'

UAB+11 at UConn

NMexSt+8 at W Kentucky

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GLTA

[sunshine11]

GL I’ll be watching. Good stuff.

[Aunty808]

Thanks for stopping by.....
This is the first "System" I've done in years that I truly feel confident in producing more winners than losers. The OVERS are kicking some serious butt. So far in the middle group:

I am using my contest lines when I entered.
Utep at Kenn St-9'/50'............(Kenn St won 33-20 OVER50')

Marshall-3' at Co Car54'..............(Marsh lost 27-44 OVER54')

Memphis-14 at Rice49'.................(Memphis won 38-14 OVER49')

Sam Hou at La Tech-16'/48'.........(LaTech won 55-14 OVER48')
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I was curious and compared each of the 5Factors individually for each team and found, for me, the choice was easier to make when looking at the comparison. Here's an example of the Memphis/Rice game.

(DER)Drive Efficiency Rating: The % of drives that end in a scoring opportunity (TD or FG attempt)
(BR)Boom Rate: The % of drives where the offense averaged more than 10 yards per play.
WDR)Wasted Drive Rate: The % of drives that end in a turnover or a four-and-out.
(RZE)Red Zone Efficiency: The average points scored on drives that reach the redzone (30 yards to goal).
(YTG)Average Yard to Goal: The average distance where the offense starts its drives.

Overall Rank/DER/BR/WDR/RZE/YTG
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Memphis 43 .....21/42/8/9/58.......................49.....31/68/21/42/2
Rice 113.................109/85/114/24/109............113......70/94/101/71/63

Memphis -14 looked like the way to go. I just went with the OVER because that was the trend for this group.

Like I said earlier, I wished I found this tool at the beginning of the season instead of just last week. I'm curious to see how it will perform the rest of the season. If it does well, I'm gonna do the Bowl Games using this method.
Good luck with your bets! Go OVERS!!!!!

[morri1962]

Good luck I take any help I can get

[Bluewater]

What up Tita came over to this site awhile back after I got feed up with the bull at the other site but haven’t been here in a long time hate to say it but they have posters there with some good info, some times lol let’s talk story

[Aunty808]

I really didn't want to post there anymore and if you didn't stop in with your 2 cents, I would have been gone. There's too many people with too big of an ego. You know, the guys pound their chests and say "look at me!". Well, you know us titas, we have no egos, we just vain to the max.....we throw back our hair and say "look at me.....I pretty yeah?".........LOL.......

I won't be posting over there anymore, just here. It's very quiet here, just the way I like it. Like I've always said, I only do this to win bragging rights in my pool, but, this is good info, I think, for the guys that gamble real money. Hawaii sucks....no legalized gambling....ugh.

A kid I work with got a hold of some parlay tickets. I did better this week. I played a 10 team, 5 college and 5 pros. This house really jack up the lines so it's really hard to win. 3's and 7's, you push and lose.

My five team college ....Vandy+3 pushed, Ohio St-21 won, Indiana-24 won, SDST-13 won and Utah-10 won.
The pros were SF-3 won, Chic-3 won (what a game!), Buffalo+3 won, Detroit-9 lost and Indy-3 lost.

Oh well, try again this week.

Gonna start on this weeks games. Hope I can find more winners than losers!!
laters.....

[Bluewater]

Tie lose that sucks they so greedy Vegas it’s a tie you win. Will be checking in to get your info the NFL percentage did awesome

[Bluewater]