The Gamecocks and Blue Raiders square off in a Conference USA matchup on Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2. SBR's Rob Paul offers some betting insight in his Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 54.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Game prediction: Jacksonville State -6 (-110 via Caesars)
"It's been a rough decade in Tennessee for Derek Mason. The former Vanderbilt head coach took his 27-55 record with the Commodores to Middle Tennessee last season and has proceeded to go 4-15, which includes a 6-13 ATS record.
Even with this being a home game, don't expect Middle Tennessee to find its groove against Jacksonville State. The Blue Raiders' offense leans heavily on QB Nicholas Vattiato's arm, but it's supposed to be a rainy night in Murfreesboro, which should impact Middle Tennessee's pass-first approach.
Making matters worse for the Blue Raiders is the fact that their offense is ranked No. 131 by SP+ behind a run game that sits just No. 122 in EPA per rush. Meanwhile, Charles Kelly's Jacksonville State defense is at its best stopping the run - it's No. 50 in the country in EPA per rush.
On the flip side of this matchup, the rainy weather shouldn't hurt Jacksonville State much. The Gamecocks aren't all that interested in throwing the ball, and offensive coordinator Clint Trickett would much rather lean on his run game. Led by Cook, Jacksonville State is averaging the most rushing yards per game in the country among non-triple-option teams (276.0) and sits No. 7 in EPA per rush.
A steady dose of Cook is bound to lead to a few splashy plays in the downpour, and Middle Tennessee's inability to consistently run the ball should be its downfall."
Player prop bet: Cam Cook to score 2+ TDs (-110 via DraftKings)
"My favorite player to back in Weekday CUSA this season has been Cook, which is why I highlighted him in my college football player prop bets for Week 10's weekday action. He's been unstoppable this season, and I wouldn't blame anyone who bets on him to score three touchdowns against Middle Tennessee (+300 at bet365).
I'm playing it safe by taking the country's leading rusher (949) to find the end zone just twice against a Blue Raiders front seven that has yet to face a running back as talented as Cook. The TCU transfer is No. 2 in the country in forced missed tackles (60) and has scored eight touchdowns in his last four games."
Over/Under pick: Under 54.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Game prediction: Jacksonville State -6 (-110 via Caesars)
"It's been a rough decade in Tennessee for Derek Mason. The former Vanderbilt head coach took his 27-55 record with the Commodores to Middle Tennessee last season and has proceeded to go 4-15, which includes a 6-13 ATS record.
Even with this being a home game, don't expect Middle Tennessee to find its groove against Jacksonville State. The Blue Raiders' offense leans heavily on QB Nicholas Vattiato's arm, but it's supposed to be a rainy night in Murfreesboro, which should impact Middle Tennessee's pass-first approach.
Making matters worse for the Blue Raiders is the fact that their offense is ranked No. 131 by SP+ behind a run game that sits just No. 122 in EPA per rush. Meanwhile, Charles Kelly's Jacksonville State defense is at its best stopping the run - it's No. 50 in the country in EPA per rush.
On the flip side of this matchup, the rainy weather shouldn't hurt Jacksonville State much. The Gamecocks aren't all that interested in throwing the ball, and offensive coordinator Clint Trickett would much rather lean on his run game. Led by Cook, Jacksonville State is averaging the most rushing yards per game in the country among non-triple-option teams (276.0) and sits No. 7 in EPA per rush.
A steady dose of Cook is bound to lead to a few splashy plays in the downpour, and Middle Tennessee's inability to consistently run the ball should be its downfall."
Player prop bet: Cam Cook to score 2+ TDs (-110 via DraftKings)
"My favorite player to back in Weekday CUSA this season has been Cook, which is why I highlighted him in my college football player prop bets for Week 10's weekday action. He's been unstoppable this season, and I wouldn't blame anyone who bets on him to score three touchdowns against Middle Tennessee (+300 at bet365).
I'm playing it safe by taking the country's leading rusher (949) to find the end zone just twice against a Blue Raiders front seven that has yet to face a running back as talented as Cook. The TCU transfer is No. 2 in the country in forced missed tackles (60) and has scored eight touchdowns in his last four games."