The 2nd game of Wednesday Night Conference USA action features the Bears and Aggies at 9:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. SBR's Mike Spector offers his best bets as part of his Missouri State vs New Mexico State prediction:
Game prediction: New Mexico State ML (+102 via DraftKings)
"New Mexico State has relished the underdog role of late with back-to-back covers (and one outright win) after a 1-2 ATS start in its first three games as ‘dogs to begin the season.
I expect the Aggies to continue the momentum from last week when they outscored CUSA contender Liberty by 11 points in the second half and held a seven-point lead before losing by three in a game they were 11.5-point underdogs.
New Mexico State’s best path to a home upset is to continue its stingy red-zone defense. The Aggies rank 26th in FBS in red-zone defense (76.5%), while Missouri State’s red-zone offense has been largely inefficient, ranking outside the top 80 with an 83.3% success rate.
With the Aggies only getting 1.5 points on the spread, there is much more value in backing them to win outright as opposed to taking the points."
Over/Under pick: Under 52 (-110 via Caesars)
"Missouri State is one of the most profitable teams to the Under, cashing it in five of six games. And in the four games that New Mexico State has played with an O/U of at least 51.5 points, the Under is 3-1. Those three cashes have also been by an average of 17.8 points.
Neither team possesses an efficient enough running game to keep the chains moving for lengthy drives. Missouri State and New Mexico State rank 127th or worse in rushing offense. And the Bears’ offensive ceiling is low, given that they average 0.3 points per play (96th in FBS) and face an Aggies defense that allows the 16th-fewest points per play (0.3)."
Game prediction: New Mexico State ML (+102 via DraftKings)
"New Mexico State has relished the underdog role of late with back-to-back covers (and one outright win) after a 1-2 ATS start in its first three games as ‘dogs to begin the season.
I expect the Aggies to continue the momentum from last week when they outscored CUSA contender Liberty by 11 points in the second half and held a seven-point lead before losing by three in a game they were 11.5-point underdogs.
New Mexico State’s best path to a home upset is to continue its stingy red-zone defense. The Aggies rank 26th in FBS in red-zone defense (76.5%), while Missouri State’s red-zone offense has been largely inefficient, ranking outside the top 80 with an 83.3% success rate.
With the Aggies only getting 1.5 points on the spread, there is much more value in backing them to win outright as opposed to taking the points."
Over/Under pick: Under 52 (-110 via Caesars)
"Missouri State is one of the most profitable teams to the Under, cashing it in five of six games. And in the four games that New Mexico State has played with an O/U of at least 51.5 points, the Under is 3-1. Those three cashes have also been by an average of 17.8 points.
Neither team possesses an efficient enough running game to keep the chains moving for lengthy drives. Missouri State and New Mexico State rank 127th or worse in rushing offense. And the Bears’ offensive ceiling is low, given that they average 0.3 points per play (96th in FBS) and face an Aggies defense that allows the 16th-fewest points per play (0.3)."