Conference USA action continues on Wednesday with the Blue Raiders taking on the Fightin' Blue Hens at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2. SBR's Isaiah Sirois breaks down the matchup and shares his Middle Tennessee vs Delaware picks:
Game prediction: Delaware -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
"Mason has been a profitable fade over the years. He had some infamously terrible years at Vanderbilt and is now 5-13 against the spread (ATS) at Middle Tennessee.
The Blue Raiders have an average point margin of -14.9, failing to cover by an average of 7.2. They are the fourth-worst ATS team over this sample. Delaware is 2-3-1 ATS in the FBS, but this is just their fourth home game.
Delaware took the leap to the FBS with Nick Minicucci under center. The veteran signal-caller has spent his entire career in Newark and went 4-1 last year with a passing efficiency score of 138.6.
This year, he is 3-3 with a passing efficiency score of 138.3 despite the step up in competition. That ranks 68th nationally. His Middle Tennessee counterpart, Nicholas Vattiato, ranks 103rd (120.9), mainly due to a receiving room that seriously struggles with drops.
An examination of several major power rating systems highlights the value of Delaware. The Fightin' Blue Hens rank 117th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), ahead of the 130th-ranked Blue Raiders, with enough of a margin for the model to favor Delaware by 8.2.
Jeff Sagarin’s ratings go even further, with Delaware ranked 126th (counting FCS teams), well ahead of 182nd-ranked Middle Tennessee, enough for the Fightin' Blue Hens to be favored by almost 15."
Over/Under pick: Under 55 (-110 via bet365)
"While I have faith in the Delaware offense, I simply cannot put any stock in their Middle Tennessee counterpart.
Middle Tennessee is 4-2 to the Under this year, largely due to an impotent offense that ranks 116th in points per game (17.6). The week off may help, but the road trip won’t. Under Mason, Middle Tennessee is 6-3 to the Under in away games.
Another key home-road split to consider concerns Vattiato. While he sports a solid passing efficiency score of 141.8 at home over his multi-year career, it drops to a brutal 120.4 in road games. I can’t trust him or the rest of the Blue Raiders to push this one over."
Game prediction: Delaware -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
"Mason has been a profitable fade over the years. He had some infamously terrible years at Vanderbilt and is now 5-13 against the spread (ATS) at Middle Tennessee.
The Blue Raiders have an average point margin of -14.9, failing to cover by an average of 7.2. They are the fourth-worst ATS team over this sample. Delaware is 2-3-1 ATS in the FBS, but this is just their fourth home game.
Delaware took the leap to the FBS with Nick Minicucci under center. The veteran signal-caller has spent his entire career in Newark and went 4-1 last year with a passing efficiency score of 138.6.
This year, he is 3-3 with a passing efficiency score of 138.3 despite the step up in competition. That ranks 68th nationally. His Middle Tennessee counterpart, Nicholas Vattiato, ranks 103rd (120.9), mainly due to a receiving room that seriously struggles with drops.
An examination of several major power rating systems highlights the value of Delaware. The Fightin' Blue Hens rank 117th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), ahead of the 130th-ranked Blue Raiders, with enough of a margin for the model to favor Delaware by 8.2.
Jeff Sagarin’s ratings go even further, with Delaware ranked 126th (counting FCS teams), well ahead of 182nd-ranked Middle Tennessee, enough for the Fightin' Blue Hens to be favored by almost 15."
Over/Under pick: Under 55 (-110 via bet365)
"While I have faith in the Delaware offense, I simply cannot put any stock in their Middle Tennessee counterpart.
Middle Tennessee is 4-2 to the Under this year, largely due to an impotent offense that ranks 116th in points per game (17.6). The week off may help, but the road trip won’t. Under Mason, Middle Tennessee is 6-3 to the Under in away games.
Another key home-road split to consider concerns Vattiato. While he sports a solid passing efficiency score of 141.8 at home over his multi-year career, it drops to a brutal 120.4 in road games. I can’t trust him or the rest of the Blue Raiders to push this one over."