Tuesday Conference USA action is back as the Aggies and Flames square off at 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. SBR's Matt Jacob breaks down Aggies vs Flames in his New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction:
Game prediction: New Mexico State +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
"If history is any indication, Liberty should take care of business on the field Tuesday night. After all, the Flames have torched New Mexico State six times in seven meetings since 2018 (including each of the last three years).
As for Liberty taking care of business from a point-spread perspective? I don’t see it. New Mexico State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season (37-10 upset of Sam Houtson). Meanwhile, Liberty has gone four straight games without tallying 20 points, and its season-high against an FBS opponent is 24.
Yes, the Flames delivered for bettors in Wednesday’s 19-8 win at UTEP as a 2.5-point favorite. Still, they’re just 4-11 ATS when laying points since the start of the 2024 campaign."
Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 (-109 via Caesars)
"These Conference USA foes have combined for at least 50 combined points in each of their last five meetings, with three games eclipsing 62. It’s difficult to see that trend continuing Tuesday, given the state of both offenses. New Mexico State averages just 22.2 points per game (109th out of 136 FBS teams); Liberty is even worse at 17.3 ppg (125th).
After failing to top 21 points in their first four contests, the Aggies erupted in last week’s 37-10 victory over Sam Houston. However, they got one touchdown on a 71-yard interception return (one of NMSU’s three forced turnovers). Meanwhile, since a 34-24 loss at Jacksonville State in Week 2, Liberty has put up 13, 13, 7 and 19 points. All four games fell shy of 47 combined points."
Player prop bet: Logan Fife Over 239.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Based on raw passing numbers, Liberty has the nation’s 12th-best secondary, yielding 154.2 passing yards per game. Here’s what that stat doesn’t tell you, though: The Flames have only faced two legitimate quarterbacks. One was UTEP’s Malachi Nelson. But after throwing eight interceptions in three weeks, Nelson was benched before last week’s Liberty game. He eventually came on in relief, going 4-for-10 for 21 yards.
The only other dangerous quarterback the Flames have seen: Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph, who racked up 271 yards on just 18 completions. Now here comes New Mexico State’s Logan Fife, who has recorded four consecutive 250-yard passing games. Fife will challenge Liberty’s secondary like nobody has but Joseph. And, like Joseph, Fife will light up the Flames."
Game prediction: New Mexico State +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
"If history is any indication, Liberty should take care of business on the field Tuesday night. After all, the Flames have torched New Mexico State six times in seven meetings since 2018 (including each of the last three years).
As for Liberty taking care of business from a point-spread perspective? I don’t see it. New Mexico State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season (37-10 upset of Sam Houtson). Meanwhile, Liberty has gone four straight games without tallying 20 points, and its season-high against an FBS opponent is 24.
Yes, the Flames delivered for bettors in Wednesday’s 19-8 win at UTEP as a 2.5-point favorite. Still, they’re just 4-11 ATS when laying points since the start of the 2024 campaign."
Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 (-109 via Caesars)
"These Conference USA foes have combined for at least 50 combined points in each of their last five meetings, with three games eclipsing 62. It’s difficult to see that trend continuing Tuesday, given the state of both offenses. New Mexico State averages just 22.2 points per game (109th out of 136 FBS teams); Liberty is even worse at 17.3 ppg (125th).
After failing to top 21 points in their first four contests, the Aggies erupted in last week’s 37-10 victory over Sam Houston. However, they got one touchdown on a 71-yard interception return (one of NMSU’s three forced turnovers). Meanwhile, since a 34-24 loss at Jacksonville State in Week 2, Liberty has put up 13, 13, 7 and 19 points. All four games fell shy of 47 combined points."
Player prop bet: Logan Fife Over 239.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Based on raw passing numbers, Liberty has the nation’s 12th-best secondary, yielding 154.2 passing yards per game. Here’s what that stat doesn’t tell you, though: The Flames have only faced two legitimate quarterbacks. One was UTEP’s Malachi Nelson. But after throwing eight interceptions in three weeks, Nelson was benched before last week’s Liberty game. He eventually came on in relief, going 4-for-10 for 21 yards.
The only other dangerous quarterback the Flames have seen: Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph, who racked up 271 yards on just 18 completions. Now here comes New Mexico State’s Logan Fife, who has recorded four consecutive 250-yard passing games. Fife will challenge Liberty’s secondary like nobody has but Joseph. And, like Joseph, Fife will light up the Flames."