Wednesday: Liberty vs UTEP Prediction

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 4588

    #1
    Wednesday: Liberty vs UTEP Prediction
    The Flames take on the Miners in Conference USA action on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET on CBSSN. SBR's Rob Paul shares his best bets in his Liberty vs UTEP prediction:

    Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via Caesars)

    Game pick: UTEP +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

    "These teams are a combined 2-8 this season, but Liberty has been a far bigger disaster, as many projected Jamey Chadwell to at least have his program in contention for the Conference USA Championship. Instead, the Flames are 0-3 on the road and just 1-4 ATS overall, with their lone cover coming last week in a 14-point loss to Old Dominion (Liberty was +14.5).

    There's no bigger disappointment in the Group of Five this season than Liberty, with Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko looking horrendous at QB. He missed last week's loss but is expected to play on Wednesday. Vasko has the third-lowest adjusted completion percentage in the country among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks (60.7%), and the Flames are No. 119 in EPA per pass and No. 112 in SP+ on offense. Meanwhile, UTEP quietly has one of the best defenses in the CUSA.

    The Miners exposed Arch Manning earlier this season, and rank top 30 in EPA per pass and rush on defense behind the play of pass rusher Udoka Ezeani and a talented secondary led by Solo Barnes and Neil Campbell. UTEP allows the fewest yards per game in the CUSA (340.4).

    While Malachi Nelson will need to cut back on turnovers for UTEP to cover, Liberty's defense is just No. 92 in SP+."

    Player prop bet: Ashten Emory anytime TD (+110 via FanDuel) ​

    "In what should be a fairly low-scoring game, UTEP's rushing attack can be the difference against a Liberty defense that's struggled to slow the ground game this season. The Flames are No. 117 in EPA per rush on defense and allow the most rushing yards per game in the CUSA (225.0).

    Skylor Magee and Kyle Krantz's defense has allowed nine rushing TDs in five games, so UTEP running back Ashten Emory should have every opportunity to score. Emory leads the Miners in rush attempts (44), forced missed tackles (20), and total touchdowns (4) this season.​"

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