SBR's Mike Spector offers his CFB best bets for Friday night in his Charlotte vs South Florida prediction:
Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Spread pick: South Florida -16.5 first half spread (-105 via DraftKings)
"South Florida shocked the college football world by becoming the fourth team in the AP Poll era (since 1936) to win its first two games against ranked opponents as an unranked team. However, since then, the Bulls have been exposed by an elite Miami team in a 49-12 loss before rebounding with a tidy 63-14 win against South Carolina State.
South Florida essentially controls its own destiny for a College Football Playoff spot as the Group of Five representative, with games against 5-0 North Texas and Memphis squads in two of the next three weeks.
The Bulls have looked solid defensively all season, save for the Miami blowout, which is not surprising considering they returned 13 of 20 defenders who played at least 200 snaps last year. Meanwhile, Charlotte has scored one first-half touchdown in three games against FBS competition.
With a huge game against North Texas looming next week, I am limiting this play to just the first half, as the Bulls could take their foot off the gas late. But over the first 30 minutes, the Bulls’ lightning-fast offense should expose a Charlotte defense that allowed 35 points to Monmouth."
Player prop bet: Byrum Brown Under 250.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown leads all American Conference quarterbacks in yards per attempt and yards per completion, and has gone over this projected total in two of the first four games. He is also coming off a season-high 11.8 yards per attempt average against South Carolina State, while totaling 236 passing yards on a season-low 20 attempts.
He now faces a Charlotte defense that ranks 100th or worse in EPA/pass and overall defensive success rate. But I am doubling down on the theory that the Bulls will play more conservatively in the second half after racing out to a big lead, especially with Brown having been banged up earlier in the season."
Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Spread pick: South Florida -16.5 first half spread (-105 via DraftKings)
"South Florida shocked the college football world by becoming the fourth team in the AP Poll era (since 1936) to win its first two games against ranked opponents as an unranked team. However, since then, the Bulls have been exposed by an elite Miami team in a 49-12 loss before rebounding with a tidy 63-14 win against South Carolina State.
South Florida essentially controls its own destiny for a College Football Playoff spot as the Group of Five representative, with games against 5-0 North Texas and Memphis squads in two of the next three weeks.
The Bulls have looked solid defensively all season, save for the Miami blowout, which is not surprising considering they returned 13 of 20 defenders who played at least 200 snaps last year. Meanwhile, Charlotte has scored one first-half touchdown in three games against FBS competition.
With a huge game against North Texas looming next week, I am limiting this play to just the first half, as the Bulls could take their foot off the gas late. But over the first 30 minutes, the Bulls’ lightning-fast offense should expose a Charlotte defense that allowed 35 points to Monmouth."
Player prop bet: Byrum Brown Under 250.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown leads all American Conference quarterbacks in yards per attempt and yards per completion, and has gone over this projected total in two of the first four games. He is also coming off a season-high 11.8 yards per attempt average against South Carolina State, while totaling 236 passing yards on a season-low 20 attempts.
He now faces a Charlotte defense that ranks 100th or worse in EPA/pass and overall defensive success rate. But I am doubling down on the theory that the Bulls will play more conservatively in the second half after racing out to a big lead, especially with Brown having been banged up earlier in the season."