Tracking System Picks/Week 5

[Aunty808]

DOGS
ND/Ark+4
Duke/Syr+5'
UCF+6'/Kan St
Ariz+6'/Iowa St

FAVS
-7Fla St/Virg
-13 Hou/Oreg St
-4'Louis/Pitt
Utah St/Vandy-22'
-7'Indy/Iowa
Aub/TAM-6'
VirgTech/NCST-10'
UMass/Mizzo-44'
-6'BYU/Col

*LaTech-3' at UTEP
System is picking La Tech, but team experts in contest is picking them 100% so take DOG, UTEP+3'

Other Team Expert picks in contest with %'s over 90% .
91% Toledo-20' Take Akron
93% Northwestern-6' Take UCLA
91% Ole Miss-1' Take LSU

If percentages drop below 90% before the game starts, I will update and pick will no longer be a play.

[Aunty808]

La Tech's pick percentage dropped to 92% . Take the DOG +3'Utep.

LaTech-3' at UTEP
System is picking La Tech, but team experts in contest is picking them 100% so take DOG, UTEP+3'

Picks below are now a NO PLAY. Percentages all dropped below 90%.

Other Team Expert picks in contest with %'s over 90% .
91% Toledo-20' Take Akron now 74%
93% Northwestern-6' Take UCLA now 67%
91% Ole Miss-1' Take LSU now 64%

[Aunty808]

Watching scores and I believe this is the week (usually happens around the 4th week of System) where regression kicks in and there's more losers than winners. Fading System picks is in order this week.

It never fails, every year, every System.....reggresion always shows up.

[Aunty808]

Watching scores and decided to jot down "what if live bets" using the half time stats.

Here's my for fun live bets....
Wake Forest-6 / -279
USC+6' / +196
ND-34'
Duke-24'
Ohio-11'
Kansas+2' / +112
UCF+12' /+598
Pitt=2' / -144
So Ala+13' /
Minn+4' / +178


EDIT:
Adding half time lines
Vandy-19'
CMich-10'

[Aunty808]

Here's the results. I am going to tweak the next set of live bets that should produce more winners. I found a common trend in these bets that made the difference in winning or losing.

Here's my for fun live bets....
Wake Forest-6 / -279 Lost 29-30 LL L
USC+6' / +196 Lost 32-34 LW L
ND-34' Won 56-13 WW
Duke-24' Won 38-3 WW
Ohio-11' Won35-20 WW
Kansas+2' / +112 Lost 34-37 LL L
UCF+12' /+598 Lost 20-34 LL L
Pitt-2' / -144 Lost 27-34 LL L
So Ala+13' Lost 22-36 LL
Minn+4' / +178 Won 31-28 WW W


EDIT:
Adding half time lines
Vandy-19' Won 55-35 WW
CMich-10' Won 24-13 WW

Be back with the next set of games with the tweak.

[Aunty808]

Half time live bets with tweak.
ULM-3
Utah-30'
Indy-3'
Toledo-41' (before the last TD before the half)
Northwestrn-17'
Navy-21'
Buffalo+3'/+143

EDIT: Updated Results

ULM-3 won 28-16 WW
Utah-30' won 48-14 WW
Indy-3' won 20-13 WW
Toledo-41' (before the last TD before the half) won 45-3 WW
Northwestrn-17' won 17-14 WL
Navy-21' won 21-13 WL
Buffalo+3'/+143 lost 17-20 LW L

[Aunty808]

More half time plays with tweak.
TAM-13'
Baylor-18'
NMex-6'
Miss-9'

[Aunty808]

Here's the last of the bunch.

Tulane-16'

SoMiss-18'
MIzzo-35'
Boise St-25'
Wash St-13'
Kentucky+16'
Geo+2'/ +103
Stanford +5'
Oregon+1'/ -101